2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[zambonir]

I'm not that negative, I think it is entirely possible they could stand pat, spend more $ this off-season (they are not up against the wall financially, plenty of money coming off the books this year especially if they move on from Cesar and Franco), compete for the NL East next year and add four really good young regulars between July and 2021 (pitchers and position players). But everything would have to go right (including the prospects in the long-term and bullpen and the rotation pieces in the short-term).

Flip side, Hoskins has peaked, Cutch returns to his 2016 level of production, Kingery struggles, our middle IF and CF production is merely average, the pitching isn't good enough and it's 4th place again.

In either case it probably doesn't matter who the manager is.

If you think things are truly rotten it might be better if Gabe stays, then everyone gets canned next year and more systemic change occurs. Otherwise you've just got Middleton flying around the country to meet with Cole and Rendon and Klentak signing another expensive reliever and trading Haseley for another starter.

[zambonir]

Honestly it seems worse than it actually was (and I'm not saying it wasn't awful)

Bryce Harper’s walk-off grand slam on Aug. 16 tied the Phillies for the wild-card. That seemed like the moment the season would turn. But they followed it by going just 17-22 and spent the final six weeks of the season fading away.

22-17 still wouldn't have gotten it done, but it's still a really fine line between finishing badly (.436 WP) and pretty good (.564). And jobs depend on the difference.

[EDmuch]

Jason Stark in his The Athletic column today listed his season award candidates. Charlie Morton was ranked 3rd for Cy Young in the AL. Sonny Gray was ranked second in the NL. Both were available to be obtained this past off-season. Just sayyin',

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, both Gray and Morton were available and might have signed with the Phillies had they made the right offer. We cannot be sure but it is likely the Phillies could have gotten them signed if they wanted them badly enough. This off season, there will be similar pitchers available who will have extremely years next season, but they might not be the top names on the free agency market. The secret to success often is in guessing which free agent is going to have that strong season.

[kmc1019]

Particularly frustrating about Morton are the multiple reports last winter that he wanted to play near Delaware (of all places!) for family reasons and even talked about retiring if he did not have that opportunity. It's likely the Phillies had a psychological scar from his lost season here after tearing his hamstring, but his results in Houston were outstanding. Maybe a different outcome with him taking the ball every 5th day for the Phillies instead of Pivetta or Velasquez.

[allentown]

22-17 still wouldn't have gotten it done, but it's still a really fine line between finishing badly (.436 WP) and pretty good (.564). And jobs depend on the difference.

I disagree. Winning 5 more games out of 39 doesn't strike me as a really fine line. That's the same as a 21-win difference over an entire season -- and yes, I know it is invalid to scale up SSS like that by a factor of 4.1. But... even adding 5 WAR to a team, if these 5 games were the total difference over an entire season isn't trivial. The best we can do is 82 wins, so we are going to wind up 8-11 games out of the 2nd wildcard. That's a lot of WAR to add It is not a small diferrence.

To honestly judge the Phillies current status and the quality of their baseball people in the cold light of day, we need to honestly recognize that 82 wins (or possibly as few as 80) is a LOONG way from a team which is good enough to advance in the playoffs. This is not an 'we're almost there, just give the same guys another chance to make the final push over the top' situation.

A large-market team, which last tasted the playoffs back in 2011, should have done FAR better in this amount of time. The Phillies continue to have very serious problems. MacPhail/Klentak/Kapler: what have these guys done to seriously demonstrate that they are the guys who can lead the Phillies where we want them to be anytime soon. Have any of the three demonstrated any sense of urgency?

[EDmuch]

KMC, that is right. The stars were perfectly aligned for us to sing Morton. He was coming off an All star season with Houston, he had no loss of velocity,was healthy, clearly stated he was looking for just another 2 year contract and stated a preference for playing near his home in Delaware. One of the "rumors" sites even listed hm as a lock to go to Philly if they gave him a 2 year offer. there were no ifs, ands or buts about Morton. It was just a screwup by Klentak in his reliance upon Young's system for improving pitcher performance of three young ot yet proven starters.

[allentown]

Yes, not adding a quality FA starter was a major error on the part of Klentak, emphasizing both his timidity and his really needing to be pushed to spend on FA. The big spending emphasis on relievers shows where his comfort zone lies. If left to his own preferences, I'm convinced we would not have either Harper or Machado, and probably not Arrietta either. He seems far to plodding and cheap a GM to be compatible with Middleton. Something is going to have to give and I think better sooner rather than later. Best to get the last round of our constant churn over and done with, rather than waiting another season or two.

[Austinfan]

And that is the crux of the matter, for every great move, there are three that turn out to be turds, but hindsight is always 20/20.

[Austinfan]

I was skeptical of this team before the season, I still think they needed to commit to rebuilding before loading up on free agents - though in the grand scheme of things they only gave Sixto in the push to compete (Crawford is a marginal prospect, I'm not sure he'll ever turn out to be more than Galvis with a different skill set. Nor have they tied themselves in knots with long-term commitments, basically Harper and Kingery (and what's left of Herrera's deal).

So it's not like they've dug a deep hole, rather, they spent a year running in place.
Hopefully they've learned, the weak finish will give them better draft position, and maybe a better pitching coach in both Philly and Lehigh can turn around some of the kids.

[California_Dreamin]

While admittedly unsure at this point about whether the mercurial style of Middleton or the plodding like pace of Klentak/McPhail is ultimately going to prove more successful [I prefer Middleton's pace] the reality is that their styles are almost polar opposites and need to be re-aligned. And the reality is that Middleton is the owner and with the signings of Harper and Arrieta the dye has been cast.

I am reluctantly on board with allentown on this one...probably best to send the Three Amigos out the door and reshape the organizational hierarchy to more closely align the philosophies of Middleton.

That said, do I think it will happen? Not a chance. Middleton is a certainly a gambler who would have played cards comfortably with Wild Bill Hickok but to depose McPhail, Klentak and Kapler in one fell swoop seems almost beyond comprehension.

One will fall, another will be told his leash is short and one will be encouraged to consider retirement. But firing all three? Just can't see it.

[zambonir]

You've wanted Gray forever! Funny to read this response too.

2017 Trade Deadline Rumors/Speculation/Discussion

[zambonir]

I disagree. Winning 5 more games out of 39 doesn't strike me as a really fine line. That's the same as a 21-win difference over an entire season -- and yes, I know it is invalid to scale up SSS like that by a factor of 4.1. But... even adding 5 WAR to a team, if these 5 games were the total difference over an entire season isn't trivial. The best we can do is 82 wins, so we are going to wind up 8-11 games out of the 2nd wildcard. That's a lot of WAR to add It is not a small diferrence.

I'm not saying anyone should get credit for it, it's the entire season that matters. I'm just saying it wouldn't have taken that much for them to finish better over the past six weeks. They finished poorly no matter how you slice it.

But I do believe we had as much as 10 WAR on the IL. And probably could have added 4 or 5 WAR at the deadline had they wanted to pay the price. If Gabe gets fired he's going to be fired for process, not results. It's reasonable to decide they want a new process. It's also reasonable to decide it wasn't a bad process, if the team had been healthy. I still have no issue with the formula they began the season with (average rotation, strong bullpen, strong offense). We're only pointing at the rotation now because the other two planks failed. But in mid-June it looked like it had worked - Nola, Eflin and Arrieta were a solid 1-3 and while the other two guys were disappointing that would have been addressed at the deadline (acquire 1 starter and then either VV was your #5 or you still get someone like Smyly).

Gray wasn't exactly cheap, btw. Shed Long was a Reds Top 10 prospect and a competitive balance pick is the equivalent of a second-round pick (which basically means a Top 20 prospect).

I think all the stuff you're saying about timidity is what impatient fans of every team that went in the tank said, large market/big-budget or not. And also what Sixers fans said though obviously it's much easier to get instant infusions of draft talent in the NBA. Klentak was hired to do an Astros style rebuild. MacPhail (who surely refused to sign Corbin to that six-year deal) had his back. But Middleton didn't believe. Given the fact that the system failed to produce Astros-level talent, there's good reason not to believe, as even a slower rebuild wasn't necessariliy going to bear fruit by 2020/2021. But I still think Klentak has been doing what he said he'd do when he was hired (including the gradual organizational overhaul).

[EDmuch]

Well so I see that I was CORRECTLY advocating Sonny Gray 2 years ago. I am sure there must be a post somewhere with me advocating Morton, also. The fact is Klentak screwed up. He is gutless. He would prefer for the Phils to be in a perpetual state of rebuilding where he is never accountable for a final product. Indeed, he would be a perfect GM for AustinFan as an owner (sorry AF, could not resist the dig). Morton or Gray either one of them and we would be a winld card contender. Kleentak chose none of the above. He would rather trust Young as a pitching coach even though he had never been a pitching coach before Klentak handed him the keys. For that Klentak should be fired. I am not a fan of Kapler. But Kapler was stuck with the hand of cards that Klentak gave him. And what Klentak gave to Kapler was a losing hand. Klentak must go. Otherwise he will just be dealing a bad hand to the next Manager.

[EDmuch]

Z, an All star pitcher named Charlie Morton who wanted a two year deal to play in the Delaware Valley was available for nothing more than a two year deal at $15 million per year. That abominable screw up is on Klentak and no one else.

[zambonir]

I just think that's pure hindsight. I have no problem with any GM looking at Morton's age and (excellent) past performance and thinking it couldn't last. The best GM in baseball currently, Luhnow, wanted nothing to do with bringing him back which is always a red flag (the same one we allegedly ignored in signing Arrieta).

I preferred Happ, personally (the lefty thing) and that would have been a mistake. But it didn't seem like it would be one then. Heck it was a mistake for the Yankees to pick Happ over Gray!

There's no point in looking at particular pitchers. But we know they offered both Corbin and Happ. They just didn't offer enough. We know they really wanted to trade for Mike Minor (and probably others) but the price was too high (or the sellers weren't sufficiently motivated, same difference). We know the rotation didn't work out. But we didn't actually know that in March. Or even in early June.

As for Gray specifically let's see how that contract extension works out for the Reds. He's always been up and down (and if we'd traded for him in 2017 he probably would have been dumped after last season, much as the Yankees did). Given the shift from long-term to short-term thinking they probably should have gotten one of those guys, the contract length, money or trade price be damned. But that's where the too-many-cooks thing and a front office that doesn't seem to be fully aligned on the rebuild/competitive timeline bites you.

[andyb]

(Crawford is a marginal prospect, I'm not sure he'll ever turn out to be more than Galvis with a different skill set

You kind of lose all credibility when you say things like this. Crawford may not have had great major league success yet, but he has been better than Galvis in the majors at the same comparative age and it is widely acknowledged that he has the tools to be much better than that. One can say he has not succeeded yet (and he did have a rougher second half this year) while still acknowledging that the potential is there for a pretty good SS. One that could be better than the 2 WAR SS he was traded for, and at about $55 million less over the same 4-year period.

The reason we had doubts about this team going into the year was the starting pitching. The reason we have doubts going forward is that we have traded some of our young players and prospects to the point where the only way we can seriously improve is by spending money, and likely exceeding the luxury tax line. That is because the current core is probably not good enough and the next wave of prospects is below average compared to the rest of baseball.

[andyb]

Well so I see that I was CORRECTLY advocating Sonny Gray 2 years ago. I am sure there must be a post somewhere with me advocating Morton, also. The fact is Klentak screwed up. He is gutless.

I was on board with Morton going back to when we had him. I would have accepted his option or even re-worked it into an incentive-laden 2 or 3 year deal then. I was less into Gray. He looked like he had hit a wall performance-wise and his stuff dropped off a bit. You ended up right there but it was not really obvious.

As for Klentak, I think he trusted his analytics too much and conservatively projected all his young pitchers to get better. He was wrong there. He should have added a number 3 starter or better. Gutless is the wrong word though. The Segura and Realmuto trades were aggressive win-now moves. That is not gutless. It was more the wrong set of moves and poor evaluations of some of the players involved other than Realmuto where he was correct, but in hindsight trading for 2 years meant he was betting on a narrow window where he had been wrong in other evaluations (Segura, Santana, the 3 young pitchers). I have no problem with his bullpen moves. We had bad luck there. They all should not have gotten hurt at the same time but they did.

[Austinfan]

No, Crawford is 24 and flatlined, at some point "potential" is a dirty word.
You have this fixation on age at the expense of all other factors.
His AAA performance was a BABIP artifact (.381, well above his career minor league norm).
In Seattle, he hit .231, wRC+ of 90.
Now he should improve, but I doubt it'll be anything drastic.

Galvis bloomed later, b/c he was jacked around by the Phillies instead of being left in AAA to develop at age 23.
Better fielder than Crawford, but wRC+ has gradually increased, 76, 74, 79, 84, 89.

Now I'm no fan of Segura, who had an offseason and should bounce back next year, but only has a couple solid seasons left in him. But he was an upgrade over Crawford, though they could have probably just gone with Kingery for a year or two.

Hopefully, Stott will turn out to be better than all the above options in 2-3 years.

[zambonir]

Some news. Bruce is also out (even to PH) apparently. De Los Santos has come up for the last two games too.

Phillies shut down Scott Kingery for season’s last two games because of...