2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

zambonir 2019-09-08 17:08:59 UTC #385

We can both cherry-picks stats about individual players. But what about defense? What about Harper's performance with RISP? Hoskins is the only person having an obviously bad year and it wasn't even that bad until he really hit the slump.

And can it really only be on the manager? Why?

To me the measuring stick has to be more broad - the team is winning about as many games as it should be winning given its talent level, mostly because of the poor pitching. The manager is neither adding nor subtracting from that. As with Charlie, it's possible Gabe's blunders have cost them a couple of wins but his strengths (whether they are about the clubhouse, as was widely believed of Charlie, or the analytics) may have added a couple.

In the end both seasons have been about pitching. Our offense may be frustrating to watch, but it has mostly performed. We're a .500 run differential team because of poor prevention more than insufficient scoring. It's still hard to believe that Cutch is missed as much as he is and it's hard to say Franco and Herrera are even missed at all, but there were obviously ripple effects. But if Kapler had had even two of the missing bullpen guys and one reliable starter besides Nola we'd still be in this thing. Last year if any of the other four starters had pitched well in September they'd have stayed in it.

To me the only reason to fire the manager is for Klentak to save his own hide (though I guess it's debatable which would advance the clock on that more). Because I also think you overestimate the extent to which the manager makes decisions separately from the GM in a modern, analytics-driven front office. This isn't, "I bought Kapler great groceries and it turns out he can't cook." Some of the groceries weren't good, and Klentak also writes the recipes.

I guess in some ways I just don't think as much of our players as you do (or as you want to). Hernandez is obviously past his prime. Segura will be 30 next year, no reason for him to ever have a career-best season again. Unfortunately I think that's also true of Harper, this season is almost identical to last season. Can he ever have another 2017 type year again? I doubt it. And I think Hoskins is what he is, this was just an extra-long streak this year.

No way Charlie's gonna manage. He doesn't want to manage. If Middleton really wants to make a move like that and MacPhail is on board he'll force Klentak to hire Showalter or Girardi but you may as well just fire Klentak if you're doing that.

Of course if Maddon isn't re-signed by the Cubs things do get interesting.

flyers19rw 2019-09-08 17:22:27 UTC #386

I don't think that he does either. However CM agreed to take over the HC job as a favor to Middleton after having a chat with the owner. JM might just also want to get a real understanding on what is going on inside the Phillies locker room.

schillingfan 2019-09-08 17:24:34 UTC #387

That’s what I’ve said all along. I think he wanted Charlie’s opinion on the state of the team as he has no dog in the fight. He’s a set of unbiased eyes and ears. Couldn’t hurt the hitting either; a two-for.

zambonir 2019-09-08 17:26:55 UTC #388

I think y'all are making too much of that theory, but tbh, if you're right, Middleton is a bad owner (and there's already reason to think that).

BostonRoss 2019-09-09 01:04:12 UTC #389

I think I'm with bkeich on this one. I don't think he is really cherry picking stats; he is looking at broad performance measures. OPS doesn't consider defense, but are the Phillies really better on defense, or are people like Realmuto and Haseley just better than their predecessors? If you look at a broader measure such as WAR or WPA, there isn't really much improvement over the past for anyone, and some players are clearly playing worse than they used to. And these guys are mainly under 30.

The issue is that the Phillies players are doing no better than they did with other managers or worse. You can find some stats for some players that are better than in the past, but generally, everyone is doing worse than they have in the past, or in some cases about the same.

Of course this isn't "only" on the manager. But if the manager can add any value at all (and if not, then it doesn't matter who the manager is), it is in bringing out the best in players, and putting them in the best position to succeed. Some of why this hasn't happened with the current team has to do with Kapler's visible strategic missteps, which are often overblown in terms of their effects on game outcomes, but are not completely meaningless. He has gotten better, but he doesn't seem to have grasped some things after almost two years. (Today he sent Harper up to pinch hit for the pitcher when no one had been warming up.) But on a more general level, if he is really putting players in the best position to succeed, how come the statistical evidence isn't there? Why are they playing worse or not better compared to how they did under mediocre managers like Mackanin?

I don't think this is a matter of being fair to Kapler. It isn't like he's on trial, and we can only convict him if there is no reasonable doubt. But after two years, we don't really have any evidence that he is better at getting results than some recycled guy. Rather than risk a third year of this, let's make a change. Let's let the season play out, and if the Phillies don't go on a run and make the wild card, I say we bring in someone else who might be able to get more out of these players.

zambonir 2019-09-09 01:36:14 UTC #390

We don't really have any significant players left who played for Mackanin (other than Cesar, and of course Hoskins, but did anyone really think he was going to stay at his rookie level?)

(And nobody was warming up because nobody expected Knapp to be intentionally walked!)

I'm just not sure the grass is greener. They hired a rookie manager (and a rookie GM). The only thing that really changed this year was the elevated pre-season expectations. Instead of slowly watching a 66-win team go from around .500 (an incredibly rare improvement) to better than .500 to true contenders, the off-season created expectations of being true contenders now. But I still think that goal would have been met w/o the injuries.

I actually find it baffling why the fan base hates this team and this season as much as they do, given how bad the organization was, and how bad the teams have been. But the answer, IMO, is that they just don't like Kapler's personality. There's not one thing he's done badly as a manager that another manager wouldn't also do badly (only the specifics vary). I'm more optimistic that Kapler can be the next Charlie (who no one liked and who almost got fired by Gillick) than I am that we can avoid being the next Washington Nationals (changing managers every two years).

I just don't think comparing one season to any player's career average is that useful a measurement. Start throwing out at least the top 2 outliers (one in each direction) or just use the last three seasons and maybe it would be more useful. And while our players aren't over 30, many of them have peaked (and we chose to add a group of older players)

The manager should be judged on wins, not individual stats. If you want to fire him because they only won 85 games and missed the playoffs, that's obviously a fair position to take.

BostonRoss 2019-09-09 04:34:02 UTC #391

I was just using Mackanin as an example for the mediocre managers that veteran Phillies have played for (including Harper's managers in Washington). The point is that other managers seem to have gotten as much or more from these guys and that their declines are not a result of age (all of the old guys we had at the beginning of the season got hurt anyway).

I don't hate the team and I don't dislike Kapler. And as I said before, I think his strategic errors are overblown. I can't point to anything specific he's done wrong, but that's because most of a manager's job is intangible--getting the players to perform at their best. The only way we have to assess that is to look at their performance.

I am not comparing any one player's season (or two seasons for those who have been here that long) to their career averages. I'm looking at them in the aggregate, where the sample is larger, and the numbers are clearly down. Yes, a manager should be judged on wins, but wins are tied to the performance of the players, and their performance can be measured. Even if every player performed exactly to expectations and no one improved, the Phillies would have more wins. But they performed worse.

Since you brought up Charlie, I would say that quite a few players who were not over 30 yet players blossomed under him. Burrell was better (and especially so if you throw out the outlier of his best year, which was under Bowa). Utley had about a season under Bowa and went from below average to near-MVP quality under Charlie (SSS acknowledged). Rollins improved significantly. These improvements were important in the Phillies becoming a playoff team and eventually a champion.

Kapler's situation reminds me of the 1992 Red Sox. They hired Butch Hobson to replace Joe Morgan as manager, worried that they were going to lose Hobson, their AAA manager, to another team. Morgan finished 1991 at 84-78 and had made the playoffs two of the preceding three years. Hobson managed the Red Sox for three years, all with losing records. A number of young players (Ellis Burks, Mike Greenwell, Jody Reed, etc.) declined under Hobson, and that was related to the team's decline. Nobody really improved. The year after Hobson was fired, the Sox made the playoffs again.

I don't think the Phillies need to be "fair" to Kapler by citing specific deficiencies in his managing as a reason for letting him go. I say they need to hire someone who doesn't have a two-year record of not being able to take anyone to the next level.

(As for not expecting Knapp to be intentionally walked, I agree it was not the right move--why would the Mets want to get Morin out of a game? But a manager has to be ready for all possibilities, not just the decisions he himself would make. What if Knapp had been pitched to and was hit by the first pitch? The situation would have been essentially the same, and presumably Kapler would have again pinch hit Harper with no pitcher warmed up. He was saved by Harper having a long at bat and getting on base, but really there was no excuse for not having someone warming up while Franco was batting.)

zambonir 2019-09-09 05:21:08 UTC #392

I do think the discussion is largely moot (not that it should stop us here!). If the front office thought this team should have done more, and Gabe more with it, they would have done more to improve the roster. They stopped expecting the division on July 1.

He'll have a performance review about what he could have done better and what he could do better next year, but barring a September collapse - certainly possible! - that takes the team all the way back under. 500, or Middleton listening to too much WIP, Kapler met the goal his employers set for this season, to be in playoff contention, albeit not serious contention due to the injuries.

I think improving our talent level in order to compete with the Braves and Nats is a much bigger issue for the next two-three years.

I can't really see the Hobson comparison at all. Like you said, Morgan's teams had made the playoffs. And Hobson had a steady core of young players for three years apparently. Kapler has had none of those things. He's a second-year manager of a team that was bad for six years and and, just this season, replaced four of its eight starters on Opening Day and six of eight by July. That is a challenge for any manager. And the offense isn't even the real reason this season isn't what we hoped!

My expectations for this season were to win the wild card and get beaten in the NLDS, a 2007-like experience that would make both the team and the manager better next year. That's still my hope today, but if they fall a few games short I don't think it means the whole plan failed.

I will say that it is true there's no excuse for some of these little issues, and that's not even on Kapler (though it's ultimately his responsibility obviously). You've got a pitching coach and a bench coach, how isn't one of them automatically in charge of at least nudging him?

bkeich 2019-09-09 13:20:10 UTC #393

Dont agree at all. Actually, Harper is having a bad year, his performance with RISP is just a SSS luck. Hoskins is really just having a bad year because of a recent slump. My point is that while no one is having an atrocious year, almost everyone is having a below average year. You expect some variance, but when almost every single player (except maybe Kingery) is below expectation and no one is above something isnt right.

I do kinda like Kapler, I think he has some good ideas (and some bad ones) and I can easily see some of his ideas becoming more prevalent. I think he was smart in dialing back some of his extremes from last year, the shifting is still heavily used, but it isnt as extreme as last year. He has improved his game management, but he still does make critical mistakes and he has issues with the bullpen. How much does a manager matter? No real way to judge, but if he doesnt matter why do we pay more than a pittance for it?

My point is we can't just keep waiting. As you pointed out these guys are at or near their primes, you even imply that a few guys may have started the decline as a reason for reduced performance in one post. So if the hope this year was for a wild card and that hope is almost gone now, does that now become the hope for next year? These seems like an extremely slow build up to success. a near .500 season, another slightly better season, then maybe a WC and elimination. Not long after that we will be looking at a core of 30 year olds again and we will have to start replacing players that never really succeed with ... not sure. Our farm system is not strong, so why are we not just looking at another rebuild in 2022/3? And if so we didnt improve fast enough to actually have much success.

Klentak has done a great job of bottom feeding and getting a few short rentals (Bruce, Dickerson) for almost nothing. Have to give him credit for signing Harper and McCutcheon also and being able to use the money he was allotted. But we probably arent going to be making anymore big dives in to FA, we are going to need too many pitchers to spend $25M on one, we need to improve pitching greatly.

In an earlier post you said that the real problem was the pitching, not the offense. Obviously true, but I think you missed my point, it isnt that offense is the reason we are not much of a contender (although we only have average offense), it is that we should have been a better offense to compensate for our pitching issues. I think we all knew that the pitching staff was going to be a little suspect this year with 3 hopes and prayers starters, but we expected the bullpen to compensate somewhat. That didnt happen due to injuries, so certainly the pitching staff was a big problem, but that wasnt my point. With the bad staff we have, we still should have done better with the talent we have on offense, and although it wasnt egregiously worse, it was worse than expected as almost every player underperformed, none of them horribly.

I didnt bother with the comparison of the pitching staff to their "norms" but it shows the same pattern. Everyone is doing worse than expected. Some are injury related, some are due to over use because of injuries, some are just having a below average year. Only a couple have had a good season, and that is out of 20 or so pitchers. The distribution of performance is disturbing and the only root cause common to all is really coaching to me.

You say I cherry picked stats, but I used OPS+ for all players. Not sure how that is cherry picking, if I had used something like RISP than I would agree, but I just dont see the cherry picking at all.

Philsmania 2019-09-09 14:17:17 UTC #394

Hobson was a big rah-rah guy but much of that rah-rah, as it turned out, may have been fueled by cocaine. He lost his job as SWB manager (then the Phillies AAA) after getting busted for having it in his hotel room in 1995. He wouldn't get another job with an affiliated team again until 2017.

No, Kapler has never been accepted by Phillies phandom, fairly or not. When hired, he wasn't the people's choice (Wathan and Girardi were). He was perceived as something of a new age flake. He didn't help himself when he let Eskin goad him into a prolonged back and forth over coconut oil in his introductory press conference. Then, his poor first weekend on the job down in Atlanta last year baked in much of his public perception. But, at the same time, he hasn't done much to win them over even though, by all accounts, he's a down-to-earth approachable guy who lives in the City (instead of big house in South Jersey somewhere) and regularly dines at local restaurants. Phillies phans, for better or for worse, seem set in their ways in terms of who they think the prototypical Phillies manager should be, that being a crusty, wily, straight-shooting baseball survival with a beer gut. Manuel and, years earlier, Ozark didn't fit that profile. Manuel gained acceptance (and even came to be seen as that prototype), Ozark--for all his success--never did.

julio 2019-09-09 14:23:28 UTC #395

Here's the data on Phillies' batters that might matter:

Relevant Phillies: OPS+, 2016-2019

Player	Age	2016	2017	2018	2019
McCutchen	32	120	115	120	114
Segura	29	122	111	111	95
Harper	26	114	156	133	121
Hoskins	26	-	162	125	118
Realmuto	28	111	112	126	110
Herrera	27	109	103	94	61
Hernandez	29	106	110	94	86
Franco	26	94	79	106	83
Kingery	25	-	-	61	106

mdougherty12 2019-09-09 15:23:42 UTC #396

McCutcheon was a 120 OPS+ in 2018, the 145 OPS+ was just his brief stint with the Yankees.

andyb 2019-09-09 15:44:56 UTC #397

Cutch has actually settled into a nice secondary level of performance that is down from his MVP days but pretty consistent. Not sure we have had much to do with his performance also as he was an established veteran that clearly knows what he is doing at the plate and with his swing.

andyb 2019-09-09 16:05:55 UTC #398

Ken Rosenthal takes Klentak to task a bit for his deadline moves:

The Braves' acquisition of Melancon for largely money (along with Keuchel) is mentioned.

julio 2019-09-09 16:11:28 UTC #399

Good catch, mdougherty - I've fixed it.

Austinfan 2019-09-09 16:30:05 UTC #400

Since August
Smyly 9 starts 50.2 3.93 ERA .338 OBA
Vargas 7 starts 38.1 4.93 ERA .331 OBA
Eflin 4 starts 26.1 3.08 ERA .282 OBA

Keuchel 15 starts 90.2 3.47 ERA .322 OBA

andyb 2019-09-09 16:33:53 UTC #401

So Keuchel has clearly been better than all of them? Not sure he has had half of his starts against the worst offenses in the league either like Smyly has.

From the Philly.com email here is the ERA of pitchers since the day Keuchel signed: "here’s a look at the ERAs of several pitchers who have occupied the Phillies’ rotation since that date: Vince Velasquez (5.19), Zach Eflin (5.45), Nick Pivetta (4.87), Jake Arrieta (5.14), Jason Vargas (4.64 between the Mets and Phillies) and Drew Smyly (4.98 between the Rangers and Phillies)."

Hard to argue that Keuchel would not have made the Phillies better.

zambonir 2019-09-09 18:35:36 UTC #402

I can't seem to render julio's table into a quote.

Obviously we disagree but I still feel the same way.

First of all I am throwing out Kingery (but for me Kapler gets points for what he's doing this season, and IMO and contrary to many fans' beliefs, for making the most out of him as a utility guy).

I am also throwing out Herrera and Franco who I think were beyond fixing.

And I do think it's unreasonable to expect 29 year-old players to improve. The ones who do are exceptions. Cutch had a 104 OPS + at 29 and a 123 and 120 OPS+, respectively, at 30 and 31. So we'll see if he remains one of them next year (hard to be optimistic about that). A small decline from Segura is not especially meaningful. Hernandez hasn't been the same since his injury but would be in decline either way.

So for me that just leaves - and yes, I'm the one who's cherry-picking here - Realmuto, Harper, Hoskins and McCutchen.

Cutch and Realmuto have exceeded my expectations. Realmuto is going to be one of the 10 best players in the league, if still basically the same guy as last year. Do I give the coaching staff any credit for that? Not really (except for their defensive work with Realmuto). Nor do I assign any blame.

And Harper is still basically the same guy he was last year. I wish it weren't so but it is. So I don't necessarily believe a third coaching staff is going to snap their fingers and get him back to 2017. I also think it could still happen next year with any coaching staff.

The other thing is, if we are going to try and directly correlate individual performance with the manager and coaching staff, what does it mean that Harper and Realmuto have both been significantly better in the second half, and even more impressive in the last 30 days? Doesn't that mean the coaching staff (and yes, Charlie) has succeeded over time, working with an entire new group of players, and are delivering when it matters most?

Or maybe it just means those two guys got off to a slow start in a new city while also becoming fathers, and the manager has nothing to do with anything.

And with my glass half-full approach, I will flip the script on Hoskins. Were the coaches all geniuses handling him until July and now they are idiots? (Ironically, Hoskins was supposedly Mallee's best student, and Charlie probably has helped him relax/think less.)

I don't give the staff much credit or blame either way. I'm just not that compelled by individual stats (and certainly not just offense) as a way to evaluate them. I think if you do want to do that, it still falls more on Klentak than Kapler in terms of them implementing an offensive philosophy and strategies that haven't produced enough runs (be that with men on base or just power in general). The same goes for the pitching - Chris Young obviously is here because he's in sync with Klentak and the analytics department. They were high on our pitchers last year because of FIP. They've all flopped. Something has to change, but it's probably bigger than the field staff.

mdougherty12 2019-09-09 18:43:58 UTC #403

Corey Seidman on what an extension for J.T. Realmuto might look like:

Philsmania 2019-09-09 18:52:05 UTC #404

Keuchel has ended up being a good signing for the Braves. Kimbrel is looking like a disaster for the Cubs (hurt often, not terribly effective when healthy).