2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[andyb]

Pivetta and Pirela called up. Franco not eligible till the 5th.

Matt Winkelman on Twitter

[nycphils]

I think they will dump Cesar and they will look for both a 2B and CF and Kingery will man whichever spot they don’t fill; or if they can fill both with good value Kingery will continue to move around a la Zobrist.

Cesar just isn’t worth the $9m-ish he’s going to get in arbitration, and can’t imagine what they could get for him beyond a token as a result.

[nycphils]

Now if Bohm goes out to Arizona and crushes it, I may have to rethink. At the moment though, I think a 1 year FA upgrade at 3B with Kingery full-time at 2B is the best offense (and defense).

Bohm’s road numbers in Reading are pretty anemic (.242/.329/.398 in 145 PA) so I’m not sure he’s quite as good as his numbers look (not that you are saying he is). I hope he proves otherwise.

[BostonRoss]

What is the point of having a rule that keeps Franco on the roster of a team that isn’t playing.

[julio]

Jim Salisbury on Twitter

[tom81]

Cesar just isn’t worth the $9m-ish he’s going to get in arbitration, and can’t imagine what they could get for him beyond a token as a result.

He’s put up a 2.0 bWAR and a 1.4 fWAR this year, why is that not worth $9m-ish????

[zambonir]

Franco and Pirela (in LF) both getting starts tonight.

https://twitter.com/matt_breen/status/1170055332153974785

[el-pietro]

Nice writeup on Realmutos season here.

Baseball’s Best Catcher Keeps it Real

I found this part especially interesting as generally development seems to have been a weakness of the Phillies, or at least thats the impression I get

...Since this piece was written, framing metrics were added into FanGraphs’ version of catcher WAR, and indeed, Realmuto was not a great framing catcher in 2018, ranking 37th out of 116 catchers in framing runs last year. That’s not bad, but it also includes all of the catchers who received little playing time, perhaps because they were bad framers. Limiting our dataset to catchers with at least 500 innings last season, Realmuto ranked 20th out of 38 total backstops. Clearly, if there was one part of J.T. Realmuto’s game that was lacking, it was pitch framing.

That has changed in 2019, and it may be a success story for the Phillies’ player development department. Immediately following his trade, Realmuto was introduced to the “catching laboratory” installed at Spectrum Field, Philadelphia’s spring training home.

“There’s three different guys who told me they work with the catchers,” Realmuto told Matt Gelb of The Athletic in February. “I’m like, ‘Holy smokes.'”

It appears that this work done during the spring has paid off for Realmuto. It’s certainly showing up in the numbers. After being worth just one framing run last season, Realmuto’s already been worth +6.4 here in 2019, ranking eighth among the 40 catchers with at least 400 innings caught. That moves him from being a 47th percentile framer in 2018 to an 80th percentile framer in 2019, a monumental improvement.

[zambonir]

It seems to be one of the organizational strengths (even Wathan is part of that team). They did a good job with Alfaro (who rated more highly than Realmuto defensively, and especially for framing last year) too.

[flyers19rw]

Kapler is beating the BP like a rented mule. Last night was the third game in four days for each of the relievers used except for Suarez who saw his fourth game in five. According to Megan Montemurro, Vincent had been under the weather as well during this streak. When a starter can only go four or five innings, it causes a problem but that’s why a long man gets used. Running in a new RP every inning just compounds the problem by stressing out the entire BP.

[Philsmania]

Suarez has been one of the few bullpen bright spots to emerge this season, possibly the only one.

What pieces can we foresee in next year's bullpen?

[andyb]

The Athletic takes Kapler to task for the bullpen this morning. Did not see last night so did not realize that Neris was not adequately warmed up before he was summoned.

There are two sides of this. One is that all the pitchers are mediocre so using lots of them in short outings is good strategy. The other side is, of course, overuse of the better pitchers (and even guys like Vincent). It does seem to me that Kapler has changed his strategy completely in September on usage and maybe getting his relievers away from a pattern of fewer but longer outings is a bad thing even with the extra arms.

Phillies' questionable bullpen management and communication...

[LoneStarPhan]

They end with this: He can’t do anything about those types of things. _[injuries] But when the Phillies assess his performance at the end of the season, evaluating how Kapler has handled what he can control — communication, bullpen management, in-game decisions — will reflect on his ability to successfully do his job._

Looking at those areas, communication, bullpen management, in-game decisions, I wonder if a change might be needed. I want Kapler to succeed but I also want to see this team take the next step and be a solid contender. With a couple veteran managers likely available during the off season, might a change be needed?

Should be an interesting off season.

[schillingfan]

I’ve said I think Manuel is part of that evaluation process. Klentak can evaluate the strategies, injuries, etc, but he can’t know what goes on the locker room. Charlie can provide that information, because people know he’s just a short termed, and he is such a loveable father fig, I think they’ll be honest with him.

[zambonir]

I suspect Klentak is just as responsible as Kapler for many of the bullpen and communications issues. Because they map out which pitchers might have which batters at which time in the game before the game even happens. So then it's a question of adjusting, but even there, I wonder if Young and Kapler are on their own at that point, or if updated situational and match-up data is being fed to them in-game.

Personally I think Kapler and Young are already back for sure unless Middleton and MacPhail have especially strong feelings. And I really don't think Charlie is that privy to most of the managing-level decisions. He may have a read on the clubhouse mood but I don't see any indication that these guys don't like playing for Kapler. The pitchers may have some issues but again, I think those decisions (about both usage and the various demotions) are made by the GM.

Regardless, the team has fallen out of the playoff race but they really haven't been in it for several weeks, or seriously contending for anything for several months. Talking about Kapler's job security now is just because it's getting late in the season and there's nothing else to write about. If they fall apart and only win 80 games (or worse than that) it will be a hot topic but that was true two months ago as well.

[fish]

What does Middleton think about all this is the million dollar question. Klentak seems to appreciate obedience to the plan- willl Middleton be too proud to admit he was wrong about hiring him or is he stewing watching waiver wire garbage like the fans?

[zambonir]

The waiver-wire talent is hardly the problem. If he'd signed Kimbrel and Keuchel I don't think they'd be leading the division now (and we'd end up paying Kimbrel to be hurt for several years possibly). And hollowing out minor league depth for a few slight relief pitching upgrades - assuming they would even be upgrades, many of the deadine guys have flopped - wouldn't have been such a great idea. Let alone trading Haseley or Moniak or Bohm to make a splash in the rotation or at 3B or CF - not to mention Dickerson and Bruce were probably as good additions to the OF as anyone else the could have spent more on.

I'm sure Middleton is not thrilled but he can read the IL just as easily as we can. I think the injuries have been epic enough to take what might have been a 90-win team to an 80-win team. The moves that were made at the deadline (plus, arguably, bringing in Charlie) puts them right in the middle.

Klentak is signed through 2021 and is about to hire a new scouting director, doubt he's going anywhere.

To me the real question is how much patience do you show with regards to winning in 2020, can you afford to ride out more ups and downs with Haseley, rely on Cutch coming back healthy and wait on Bohm, or do they need 1-2 significant additions on the position player side too?

[andyb]

Not going after Keuchel for only cash does seem to be a mistake though (even if any one move is ever likely to mean more than a couple of games in the standings). It showed the organization lacking confidence in their team in an area that was clearly a need. Same with the bullpen at the trade deadline. They sent the message that "analytics say our team can't win so why try hard?" loud and clear to both the team and the fan base.

[bkeich]

Talking about Kapler's job security now is just because it's getting late in the season and there's nothing else to write about. If they fall apart and only win 80 games (or worse than that) it will be a hot topic but that was true two months ago as well.

The issue is after 2 years Kapler hasnt shown much to be excited about. His game management was laughably bad and now just isnt as funny anymore (credit for improving). He seems to have an issue around using the bullpen intelligently, he over - moves and gets himself in trouble (and almost just forfeits some games because he used up the pen earlier than his opponent).

And I have made this statement before and it was argued as "not really true" anymore, but it still is. Every player seems to be having a below average year, and that can really only be on the manager.

Realmuto : 110 OPS+, Lifetime 110
Hernandez : 87 OPS+, Lifetime 96
Segura : 95 OPS+, Lifetime 98
Franco: 80, 93
Hoskins : 117, 127
Harper: 121, 136

Kingery is above expectation this year, but was wildlly under last year, hard to say Kapler has done well there.
McCutcheon could have been an exception minus the injury

The pitching staff shows the exact same thing. Everyone is having a below average season.

The hitting numbers for these guys have improved since the last time I made this chart, but the conclusion is still the same. 2 guys are now around their averages and 4 are well below (before it was 6 well below). I dont think Kapler is getting the best play out of these guys, now maybe that is that they arent really putting in the effort for him, maybe they are just getting thrown off by the teaching, maybe the strategies are flawed, misunderstood or confusing. I honestly dont know, but if someone who managed people for me had this track record I would have to think about what to do to fix it.

Kapler is certainly gone after next year if we dont compete, and honestly I am worried that the issues are not that we need to fill holes in CF and 3B and pitching staff but that (as there seems to be evidence) everyone just isnt doing as well as expected because of .... ???. That has to fall on the manager, who else can it?

[flyers19rw]

What does Middleton think about all this is the million dollar question.

I don't believe that Charlie Manuel was signed on to just take over the hitting coach position.