2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[EDmuch]

MAYBE add a starting pitcher ????? There is no viable option going forward except to add at least one solid staring pitcher. Probably Cole Hamels on a 2-3 year deal. Nola, Hamels, Arrieta, ?????, then Velasquez or Elfin as number 5. That is not bad. Particularly if we can heal the hole in he pen and get a healthy McCutcheon back. That would be a competitive team, capable of 85-90 wins.

[tom81]

Hard to imagine them going into spring training with all three of them.

Not hard at all for me.

VV is 27 and not a FA until 2022
NP is 26 an not a FA until 2024
ZE is 25 and not a FA until 2023

One or two could easily go to the pen and give you insurance if one of the starters gets hurt. There is no need to trade them, especially if you don't get fair value.

[julio]

Per the phillies.com transactions page, RHP Drew Anderson has been released.

9/02/19: Philadelphia Phillies released RHP Drew Anderson.

[allentown]

Hard to imagine them going into spring training with all three of them.

I think they should bring all 3 (and others) to ST and have a battle for the rotation. This year has proven that you need well more than 5 SP. If you bring 6 guys without options to ST, the odds of all 6 being healthy and pitching well at the end of ST is vanishingly small. If that happy occurrence comes to pass, there will always be teams looking for a SP at the end of ST. I'd sign a good FA pitcher and bring in 8 guys, including two with options, to compete for the rotation.

Why trade one of Eflin/Pivetta/Velasquez? I know you don't want them, which means nobody else will be willing to trade you much for them. They aren't expensive in $, so I see no point in removing one of them.

[zambonir]

There's still a 40-man roster and Rule 5 to consider though. And options. If one of them starts and one is in the pen and one is in AAA, okay, but.if they really have so much future value as young cheap starters, great, let's convert that into present value.

[gmwannabe]

that's a shame, i had drew as a sleeper in my early thoughts a few years ago. i thought he was going to make it.
gm

[Austinfan]

I'd also bring back Smyly on a low cost 2 year, incentive laden deal. You want to go 6-7 deep.
Vargas I'm not so sure, you can't really use him out of the pen, but he does eat innings to some extent.

[zambonir]

Time will tell on the 40 and the timing of how they add and subtract guys (including position players) but you can't carry 10 starting pitchers between the majors and AAA if you've got a few more young guys to protect

This year they went into spring training with five guys in MLB (Nola, Arrieta, Pivetta, Eflin, Velasquez) and five guys in AAA (Eickhoff, De Los Santos, Irvin, Suarez, Anderson), plus Medina.

I imagine they will release Eickhoff, Anderson is already gone, and Suarez is almost certainly a reliever now. And if VV and Pivetta are both relievers that also changes the math, but this remains to be seen.

If they keep Vargas that also changes the math. And while I don't agree with AF's speculation that Smyly should get any kind of guaranteed deal, his upside is not necessarily any worse than our internal guys - what if you could sign him while flipping VV and Pivetta (plus prospects) for a rotation upgrade? The question is whether they have more value as trade chips than as relievers (especially since they also haven't really shown themselves to be effective relievers yet).

Also Robertson, Arano and possibly Seranthony are going to take up dead spots on the 40 until they can be moved back to the 60 (unless they are able to just release Robertson).

Vargas is so cheap that you could release him (who knows, maybe he'd even clear waivers), I feel like you do pick him up and let him compete. Maybe I feel differently if they are seriously going to go after Hamels but Hamels on more than a two-year deal makes me nervous. You know MIddleton won't be able to resist though.

[David_Criss]

I like the idea of giving VV and Pivetta a spell in the pen before totally giving up on them. They shouldn't be counted on as any more than bullpen arms though at this point imo. That leaves Nola, Arrieta, Vargas and Eflin as your starting pitchers on paper at this point.

[EDmuch]

Next year we should be shooting for more than just "inning eaters".

[Lawman]

Nola, Arrieta, Vargas and Eflin as your starting pitchers on paper at this point.

This is not a rotation that I would count on to win the NL East.

[andyb]

Next year we should be shooting for more than just "inning eaters".

Agree. Cole is going to be 6-7 years and probably over $200 million. I would be for that, but not sure we can pull it off. A Hamels 2-year deal in the $25-$30 million range is much more possible. Whether that is enough is a question. Prospect trades for guys like Stroman are another option but how many prospects do we want to deal?

[Austinfan]

Inning eaters have a lot of value, how many teams have (and can maintain, both health and cap wise) 3 top starting pitchers? Guys who can give you consistent quality starts (6+IP, 3 ER or less) are the key to staying competitive, along with a solid lineup and a deep bullpen.

This season there are currently only 52 pitchers with 2.0+ WAR (FG), but only 15 with 4.0+ WAR.
Nationals have 3 of the top 11 (Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin) yet are trailing the Braves who have well know aces in Soroka and Fried.
21 of the 52 (mostly between 2-3 WAR) have FIP > 4.00.

Point is if the Phillies can continue to improve their lineup and shore up the bullpen, they don't need to add two more aces, just some solid inning eaters who are in the 3.75-4.25 FIP range, i.e., what Eflin, Velasquez and Pivetta gave them LAST season. If Howard becomes an ace, great, but they can still compete with Arrieta bouncing back, "good" Eflin, Hamels/Wheeler and even Irvin with an improved slider or Smyly with improved command.

There are maybe a dozen pitchers at best who can both give you 4+ WAR seasons and be projected to do so for 3-4 more seasons (i.e. some are guys approaching their expiration date).

Some of those 4+ pitchers are outliers,
Lance Lynn (32), 6.0 WAR, last two seasons 1.3, 2.9
Morton (35), 5.4, last three seasons, 2.9, 3.1, 0.4
Minor (31), 4.5, last two seasons, 2.5, 2.2
Ryu (30), 4.0, last two seasons, 1.9, 0.6

Which is a good reason to gamble on veteran pitchers coming back from injury.

[David_Criss]

Pirela, Piveta, De Los Santos are available to be recalled and the Iron Pigs season is over. Will they join the Phillies this September? Franco isn't eligible until Thursday, so I guess he goes home until then?

[Taudawg]

With what exists in the system (under contract + prospects), plus an innings eater is not enough. There are plenty of quality arms in free agency this year to add at least one (maybe two) quality arm without giving 4-6 year commits i.e. Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Alex Wood, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels. They might be able to grab two at the price of one Gerrit Cole. The market could change, but I don't see any of these guys getting deals longer than 3 years.

The lineup for next year is nearly set in stone. They aren't going to change or likely improve at C, 1B, 2B, SS, RF or LF - they are what they are. The CF market is weak and letting Haseley play is a solid option. 3B has some intriguing free agents that might be signed to one year deal. A solid 3B and an improved bench should make the Phillies a top half offense, but still far from the 27' Yankees. The best chance of improving next year is on the mound.

[Philsmania]

Ryu is also a free agent this winter and a lefty. Considering the Yankees historical affinity for lefhanders, I would not be surprised if they target him.

[zambonir]

The lineup for next year is nearly set in stone. They aren't going to change or likely improve at C, 1B, 2B, SS, RF or LF - they are what they are. The CF market is weak and letting Haseley play is a solid option. 3B has some intriguing free agents that might be signed to one year deal. A solid 3B and an improved bench should make the Phillies a top half offense, but still far from the 27' Yankees. The best chance of improving next year is on the mound.

Hopefully including the bullpen.

Regarding the above, we just don't know who the 2B is yet. Still not 100% sure a team without Cesar is better, but it really depends what they do about 3B. Separately from Cesar's apparently decline I still don't get the sense they are hot to give Kingery a permanent spot. They might even be hot to sign another guy like him.

[Austinfan]

They already drafted one in Stott, and Simmons has a similar skill set (IF with speed and a good arm).

They're also moving minor leaguers around a lot, I think they want most prospects getting experience at multiple positions, see Luke Williams for example.

[zambonir]

Yeah but I am only talking about next year (or maybe the year after). Cesar is expensive and has limited trade value but Kapler was still raving about how much he loves having Kingery to plug in all over the field this week. And if Bohm is on his way, Cesar plus a platoon 3B/Kingery and Haseley/Kingery in CF might make more sense for at least half a season.

However, an IF with Moustakas/Kingery instead of Kingery/Hernandez might be better. Depends who they can get, and for how long. Moustakas and Donaldson will surely both be looking for longer deals but we've seen this movie before.

[Taudawg]

If they don't move on from Cesar I would think Kingery gets most of the time at third. In that scenario there is less room to improve on the offense. Perhaps they think a healthy Cutch makes them a top tier offense? I am a little skeptical.

The Phillies starting 8 doesn't have superstars. Bryce and JT are really good. Looking at the teams above us, do we have a hitter that can match Freeman and Acuna in Atlanta, or Rendon and Soto in Washington?

We can hope for more from the guys we have, however I think this is pretty much who they are. Without superstars, the strength has to come from the numbers - a deep 1 through 8. Essentially what they thought they had in Spring of this year, but even better.

Now if Bohm goes out to Arizona and crushes it, I may have to rethink. At the moment though, I think a 1 year FA upgrade at 3B with Kingery full-time at 2B is the best offense (and defense).