2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[julio]

Assuming both Grullon and Vincent get into a game, the phillies will set a team record with 55 different players appearing in a game this season. Current record is 1996 Phillies with 54 players appearing in at least one game, That team included such memorable names as Howard Battle, Bronson Heflin, Rafael Quirico, and Glenn Dishman (I dont remember any of these people)

I don't remember Dishman or Battle. The other two... sadly, I do.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I don't recall any of those names.

[bkox]

Battle went 0-5 in 5 games with 2 strikeouts.

Quirico only appeared in 1 game.. and it was the only game of his MLB career. June 25th 1996 vs Cin: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 1 SO, 5 BB, 7 ER, L

Dishman appeared in 4 games. 1 start. Managed a 6.89 ERA

Heflin appeared in 3 games of relief. 1st game Aug 1st. Last game Aug 7th. Only 3 games of his career. 6.75 ERA

[David_Criss]

I hope Irvin replaces Smyly in the rotation for the rest of the month.

[Taudawg]

Not I. Not that I'm that invested in seeing more of Smyly either. I believe Irvin is another Tyler Cloyd type - all-star AAA pitcher without enough stuff succeed at the highest level.

[Austinfan]

Went back and looked at the preseason odds, two different books had the Phillies at 83 and 89 wins.

https://www.thelines.com/2019-mlb-betting-win-totals/

Phillies were at 83 wins

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Phillies were at 89 wins

[Austinfan]

I wouldn't write Irvin off quite yet, Cloyd struggled with command, got away with it in AAA, but not at the ML level.
Irvin could use a tad more velocity, but he has a plus changeup, needs to sharpen his slider.
As Vargas shows, you can be a decent back of the rotation starter without velocity if you can locate and change speeds.

[flyers19rw]

Providing Arietta can come back in good shape in spring, with Vargas and Eflin to go with Nola, the SP shouldn't be as dire as some predict. I don't think that the Phillies will be able to nab Gerritt Cole; the Yankees will be hard after him. However signing Hamels and a guy like Wheeler wouldn't be a bad of season.

[bkeich]

I wouldn’t hope for that staff too much Flyers. That is one good starter, 1 average and 2 well below average starters. We are stuck with Arrieta, who we can hope returns to average, but Vargas is not a guy that we should be happy about, there was a reason he was available for nothing.

This team will not succeed with a starters ERA of 4.97, which is what we have with only 1 injury in the starting staff by returning the current staff. It rarely rains 4 days in a row in Philadelphia and that is the only way a staff of Nola and 4 bottom of the rotation starters will work.

[andyb]

Providing Arietta can come back in good shape in spring, with Vargas and Eflin to go with Nola, the SP shouldn't be as dire as some predict

I don't think Vargas is that good though. Fine 6th starter that you can plug in when someone fails but is he more than that these days? Eflin is also a back end starter at best and really has not shown he is better than Velasquez or Pivetta. I think they keep 2 of those 3 and add a veteran or two, but there is really nothing that Eflin has done to show he should be the one of the three they keep. With his relatively low K rate his only advantage is eating innings a little more reliably than the other two and if they don't change the ball back his style of pitching (sinkers) may be going out of style somewhat.

I am guessing the team tries hard for Cole. 7 years, $200 million plus. Probably only a 20%-30% chance of getting him but that will be their first priority.

[Austinfan]

Eflin is clearly better than Pivetta or Velasquez, how that is debatable is beyond me.

Eflin had a cold spell where he was trying to figure out the kind of pitcher he was, part of the blame goes to Young who wanted him to be a power 4 seam FB thrower (seduced by that 94-96 velocity), but as become apparent, Eflin is more effective relying on the 2 seamer and using the 4 seamer as a "show me" pitch to keep hitters honest. I'd go so far as to say some of Nola's struggles has been over reliance on the 4 seamer this year and not using his excellent 2 seamer more often. But when Eflin has both FBs, his slider/cutter and changeup working, he has #2 potential.

Velasquez has an explosive FB with late movement, but little else, and when he tires, the FB loses some of its movement. His other pitches are mediocre at best.

Pivetta has a straight 4 seamer like Eflin, has tried to throw a two seamer with limited success, and while his curve can be plus, he struggles throwing it for strikes and hangs a few. I think he has potential as a setup man b/c his FB adds velocity out of the pen.

[andyb]

Eflin is clearly better than Pivetta or Velasquez, how that is debatable is beyond me.

Eflin gives up more hits (other than Pivetta this year where he has regressed a bit) and strikes out fewer batters. Today's game is built on missing bats and the other two are more built for that. They are all really close in performance. They have all disappointed somewhat. How you see that as Eflin being clearly better is what is debatable.

How the Phillies deal with these 3 pitchers will be important. RIght now they are all back end starters. Eflin is safer because of his control, but Velasquez and Pivetta have better stuff and miss more bats. Without contributions from 2 or 3 of these guys leaves us with a bad pitching staff that can only be fixed with money. We need all these pitchers going forward because if we trade them for $0.50 on the dollar it is a net loss for the club's talent base.

[zambonir]

Hard to imagine them going into spring training with all three of them. The only question would be whether one of them competes with Vargas for the 5th starter spot (assuming they do pick up the option. If you did sign Cole Hamels you probably don't need Vargas).

Nola, TBD, TBD, Arrieta, Eflin/Pivetta/Velasquez/Vargas look a lot better to me than moving any one of those four names to the #2 or #3 spot. They'll certainly try to make Gerrit Cole an offer and maybe Cole Hamels is the back-up plan but I could still see a trade.

Also, what do they really expect of Spencer Howard (or anyone else) next year? If you think you've got someone to come up in July you might be more willing to give that extra #5 starter a chance initially.

Given how this season worked out and how the trend in baseball went this season I don't think they will repeat the "strong bullpen thinner rotation" model.

[julio]

Eflin is clearly better than Pivetta or Velasquez, how that is debatable is beyond me.

This is philliesphans.com...Everything is debatable (as you obviously know...).

[flyers19rw]

I don’t think that Howard will make the club out of ST. He could use some AAA exposure especially since he’s had so little AA time. Probably a mid year call up. No need to get over anxious with his development.

[andyb]

The bonus of getting something out of Velasquez or Pivetta or Eflin is the bonus of low cost performance. While I agree we should get a couple of pitchers, I could roll the dice also with just one new pitcher to save $10-$20 million a year.

That probably means keeping only 2 of the 3. Maybe add 1 pitcher. Get Arrieta back so you have Nola, TBD, Arrieta, and then have 2 of the 3 plus Vargas hold down spots 4 and 5 with one in the bullpen. That makes Howard the 7th starter if all goes well which would mean he gets 10 starts in LHV to see if he is ready and get beyond super Two status.

[zambonir]

Agreed he's not making the team in April but you have to plan your rotation in April so if you think he'll be ready in July then (as Andy also notes) you don't need to sign or trade for two pitchers. You go with Vargas or Velasquez or whoever and see how they do unless and until Howard comes up.

I do wonder if the Phillies could just trade Velasquez and Pivetta, packaged with a couple of prospects, to get a salary-dump pitcher.

[Austinfan]

I think the Phillies add one mid-priced starter and one or two back of the rotation candidates for depth in ST.
Nola - ??? - Arrieta - Eflin - ??? with Howard in AAA and Velasquez and Pivetta in the pen for long relief/spot starts.
I think Arrieta should be 100% for ST, which lets you keep Howard in AAA.

[flyers19rw]

Maybe you plan around Howard being the first in season SP call up when needed. You can almost guarantee it that one of the starters coming out of camp will break down. If the Phils can trade off some spare parts for a salary dump, that would be fine. So would adding a couple of FAs

[Philsmania]

I still like Velasquez as a reliever. I'm done with Pivetta. If he prospers with a change of scenery, good for him. Regardless, I don't see it happening for him here.