2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[zambonir]

Keuchel was a mistake for sure. To me the best argument against him was he was too similar to Arrieta (other than being a lefty). but since Arrieta is hurt and Keuchel took a one-year deal that no longer matters.

Are we going to face him twice this month? 'Cause there's also that.

[zambonir]

Corey Seidman on what an extension for J.T. Realmuto might look like:

Predicting the magic number it will take Phillies to extend J.T. Realmuto

Predicting the magic number it will take Phillies to extend J.T. Realmuto

J.T. Realmuto's next contract could very well be a record-setter at his position. Just how much might an extension cost the Phillies? Corey Seidman takes a look.

Realmuto has been unreal in this second half. He has been one of the best hitters in baseball since the All-Star break, but his surge began a few weeks before that. Dating back to June 29, Realmuto has hit .312 with a .949 OPS, 19 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs and 43 RBI in 244 plate appearances.

Defensively, Realmuto is not only elite but unmatched. No catcher in 2019 possesses as many defensive tools as Realmuto does, combining the majors' best pop time and throwing arm with top-notch ability to block behind the plate and frame pitches.

Fangraphs has Realmuto as not only the best baserunning catcher in 2019 but also the 13th-most-valuable baserunner in the majors

The article notes the irony that early in the season people thought maybe they could get him cheap.

[andyb]

We really should have tried to sign him right after the trade because then we could have taken the lower salaried arbitration years and come up with a lower AAV over 5-7 total years. I am sure we did the deal thinking it only works if we resign him, and now there is no reason to think that will not cost market rate.

[zambonir]

I'm still skeptical that it will be a record-setting contract, or even on par with one (McCann) from six years ago. But they do need to get it done this off-season.

[BostonRoss]

I don't think I have any new points to make. We just disagree, and that's OK!

[bkeich]

HGood discussion Zamb. I feel the same, we just disagree about what the next move should be.

Realmuto is having a great season in many ways and (really a very great half season) although I was excited about Alfaro, certainly has made the deal look much better.

Sadly, his hot streak is going to be very expensive for the Phillies. I suspect he is going to set the market for catchers, he is going to be very tough to sign if we let him hit the market and I can’t see us getting a discount for trying to lock him up this offseason, but who knows.

The other thing about Realmuto is he is a very solid athlete. When he can’t catch anymore he really might be able to play 3B or LF, the may not just be a 1B. He also may be able to stay behind the plate longer than many catchers because of his athleticism and preparedness

[julio]

Quick aside on quoting posts with links embedded:

If you just select/highlight the part of the post you want to quote, and click the grey "quote" button that appears, you will grab only the visible text that you've highlighted - and the board may not quite know how to parse that.

If, instead, you click the "Reply" button at the bottom right of the post you want to quote, the editor will open with the full text of the post you're replying to - including any html code that makes Onebox quotes look pretty. Then, if you don't want to quote the whole post, you can just delete the parts you don't want.

Also, as some have noted, copying Twitter links doesn't seem to work the way it used to. There is a workaround - I'm not sure why this works, but if you add a question mark followed by the letter a at the end of the link code (e.g., add "?a"), the board will then parse the link into a pretty Onebox.

Now back to your regular discussion... ")

[VoteForKalas]

I think the biggest issues with Realmuto are:

-How long can you expect him to catch and maintain effective defense/offense levels?
-How do you construct a fair contract that projects that trajectory for both parties?

Realmuto is 28 now; will he catch for 3-4 more seasons? Does he then need to move to 1B?
Are the Phillies signing Hoskins long term?

[zambonir]

The other thing about Realmuto is he is a very solid athlete. When he can’t catch anymore he really might be able to play 3B or LF, the may not just be a 1B. He also may be able to stay behind the plate longer than many catchers because of his athleticism and preparedness

I have mixed feelings about that scenario - I think you are better off keeping him behind the plate. I feel like it's more likely he will still be a valuable catcher with less of bat than that his bat will play big enough for 1B or DH. Ruiz was solid until 34, 35.

But the 3B/LF suggestion is not uninteresting. I do feel like his current workload is unsustainable and 10-20 games a year at other positions wouldn't hurt.

I don't think Hoskins is here for his final arbitration year. They should get him signed to a deal if they can and then he becomes more tradeable (to the AL) too. Boras is probably happy to go year-to-year though.

Harper and Bohm are both more likely to be our 2023 1B than Hoskins or Realmuto, IMO.

[mdougherty12]

I'm still skeptical that it will be a record-setting contract, or even on par with one (McCann) from six years ago. But they do need to get it done this off-season.

Catcher is such a weak position league-wide right now, and Realmuto is so good, it's easy to see a lot of demand for him if he hits the market. Grandal is the only catcher close to J.T. in value, and he's ~2.5 years older. Jorge Alfaro is actually tied for third in fWAR among catchers for 2018-2019.

[zambonir]

Agreed, and the age part is of course important, but the market was weak for both Grandal and Ramos. Arguably the trade market wasn't even that strong for Realmuto which is why we have him (not that the Phillies didn't give up a lot).

I certainly don't want to wait to find out, and the Phillies shouldn't either. But when you look at the Nola deal and the Braves deals and how it's been for FAs (even including Harper) they shouldn't have to make a huge pre-emptive offer either.

[andyb]

It is possible that the market for catchers is becoming a little like the market for running backs in football. The position is just so demanding that few catchers get long contracts any more. That 6 years of service time rule is really cruel for a catcher hitting free agency.

Now I still expect Realmuto to get $100 million though and it probably makes sense for the Phillies to try this offseason. His athleticism means he should age better than most though of course one cannot predict injuries. The Phillies should probably bite the bullet and try to get him for 5 years now rather than waiting a year. And then we should trade some of our catching inventory in the offseason because that is a positional strength in the organization and backup catcher can usually be filled with inexpensive free agents (if they choose to move on from Knapp).

[zambonir]

As you've obviously already read....

Local 9: Johnny Almaraz's legacy as scouting director and...

8. Part of the 40-man roster issue is the Phillies have to protect some more catchers. They now have three on the 40-man roster after Deivy Grullon was promoted to the majors for September. The organization is divided on whether he could serve as the backup in 2020.

But Rafael Marchan and Rodolfo Duran are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Marchan, 20, is highly regarded within the organization, and the Phillies are likely to add him to the 40-man roster. Duran, 21, had a huge 2018 at Low-A Lakewood and was hurt for a large portion of 2019. The 26-man rosters could prompt a rebuilding team to swipe Duran and use 2020 as an internship year in the majors. Maybe that is a stretch.

It would be unusual for the team to carry four catchers on the 40-man roster. If Marchan is added, the Phillies could be forced to prune by deciding between Andrew Knapp and Grullon.

Either way, the Phillies might dip into their minor-league catching inventory this winter during trade talks. As opposing teams scouted their system at July’s trade deadline, the catchers were a frequent target. There is interest.

[andyb]

But it also makes sense since we seem to have had some success in the lower minors (Aparicio, O'Hoppe, Nava, etc.) with the next tier of catchers. So Grullon is completely trade-able and should have some value coming off this season.

[Patchmk88]

Looks like skipping rest days for Nola wasn’t the best strategy. Guy has been awful his past two starts.

[Austinfan]

Nola isn't a workhorse and shouldn't be used like one.
It's tempting to push him, but counterproductive.
Sometimes desperation triumphs over common sense.

The most frustrating thing about Pivetta is he fits the workhorse mold, just isn't a SP.
Eflin as he gains more strength could be a workhorse, especially as he pitches more to contact so he isn't trying to throw 70% 4 seamers as hard as he can.
Velasquez, definitely not, goes too deep into counts and his FB loses movement as he tires.
Howard, who knows? Check back in 3 years. Morales, check back in 5 years.

[flyers19rw]

Realmuto is a heck of an athlete. He’s the sort of guy that can handle the wear and tear of being behind the plate longer than those that don’t have his athletic pedigree. People keep waiting for catchers to fall apart but some like Chooch and Yadi continue to carry on. I’d be in on signing JT basically for whatever he wants. Being tight with Bryce should make a difference here.

[zambonir]

Pitching every 5 days isn't being a work horse though. That's supposed to be normal. A lot of pitchers would prefer the routine to inconsistent off days. Anyway, causation, correlation, etc.

[LoneStarPhan]

As with most things about baseball, we can never know what would have happened if this or that were done differently. What we do know is that the Phillies are 0-4 in the last four games Nola has started. Did starting Nola every 5 days have any effect on that result? We don't know. All we know is that the plan and use of Nola has not gone well as it was done. Maybe they lose all four of Nola's starts regardless of how his starts were spaced. Maybe not.

At this point in the season, I think I would give Nola an extra day off when the schedule allows and not jump him in the rotation when there is an off day. Of course, there is no assurance that this would make any difference.

[zambonir]

Yup. But even in hindsight it's hard to say pitching Nola more and any of the other four guys less was a bad idea. Maybe he would have just hit a bad stretch regardless.

In 2009 Cliff Lee allowed 6, 6, 6, 7 and 4 runs in five of his last seven starts (from August 29 on). And he was still our playoff ace. Unfortunately we're not going to make the playoffs without a September ace.