2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

bkeich 2019-08-29 17:28:02 UTC #263

30 games left and we are 2 games out of the playoffs.

Washington is 3 games up on the Cubs
Cubs hold the 2nd playoff spot
Phils 2 games out
Milwaukee, Mets and Arizona are still in the conversation.

With recent big wins the Phils run differential is down to -8. Oddity is that the Brewers are much worse at -39 and Arizona is +61. Simple truth is that the 1 year run differential has a little too much variance in it to make highly accurate projections, but it is a tool. The Reds are +19 but 8 games out of a playoff spot.

Phils have played 6 more home games than road games, bad news for us as we have one of the worst Home/Away splits in the league.

Phils are 10th in Team OPS, 7th in Runs scored, 11th in ERA (big improvement lately), and have climbed into a tie for last in HR's allowed (huge improvement, with Colorado, who frankly should always lead that category).

Offensively, the Phils are somewhere in the middle of the pack in virtually every stat. Only oddity I could find is that we have hit into the fewest DPs in the NL (weird, not sure there is a reason, we don't have great speed)

Phils pitching staff is tied for the league lead in complete games with 3, but honestly, that is a non-stat anymore. The pitching staff has the 2nd fewest strikeouts in the NL, partially because we have such poor starting pitching and do not have a bunch of relievers that strikeout 13/9ip. Gabe Kapler has used the IBB 35 times, 2nd in the NL.

Thanks to Realmuto the Phils lead the NL in CS% defensively at 44%. Knapp, of course, hurts at 20% (is there anything other than draw a walk he does well?), but Realmuto is at 49%. Will be interesting to see if Realmuto wins the GG (he is our only candidate) given the weakness of the pitching staff.

zambonir 2019-08-29 18:28:53 UTC #264

I would like the Mets to win tonight. We control our position with them, we can't do much about the Cubs.

At some point they do have to go on a bit of a streak. Sweep the Mets, or put up a winning record on the next road trip. Either way, if form holds, they will probably continue to hang around until the Atlanta/Cleveland/DC road trip, but then it's sink or swim.

Eno Sarris broke down the Pythagoreans, as well as Baseruns wins, which accounts more for luck. His feeling is the Phillies offense has basically been been okay, and run prevention - in the form of one or more starters stepping up - is what they need to get over the hump.

Philsmania 2019-08-29 20:09:44 UTC #265

If form holds, the Atlanta-Cleveland-Washington road trip will launch us into the playoffs, considering how we've played markedly better against good teams than bad teams (though Braves and Nationals have owned us).

zambonir 2019-08-29 20:36:18 UTC #266

True, that's why I joked "World Series here we come" in a recent thread when this came up.

However, just because our record over .500 teams is good doesn't mean it's good enough to get us in the playoffs. We're 40-37, a .519 winning percentage, so basically the same - a tick worse, even - as our overall record. That won't get it done unless the Cubs play even worse.

And we probably don't beat over-.500 teams at that pace on the road anyway. If they can go 6-5 on that road trip they will still be in it (assuming they already still are after the Cincinnati/NY trip). It's a lot to ask/expect, but they're not making the postseason if they don't exceed expectations for a week or two at some point.

LoneStarPhan 2019-08-29 20:54:33 UTC #267

The thing about baseball is that it is possible for the Phillies to string together some wins and actually pass the Cubs in 30 games. It may be unlikely, but the chance is there and might happen. Any of us who were following every Phillies game in September, 55 years ago can remember what can and does occasionally happen.

I think the likely outcome is that the Phillies hold 3rd place in the NL East but fail to secure a WC spot. But my hope is that the Phillies do make the post season and that will be my hope until that chance is eliminated.

zambonir 2019-08-29 21:10:36 UTC #268

Very possible. We're not worse than the Cubs. We probably have a tougher schedule (in that Atlanta and DC are better than the Cards and Brew. They also have Mariners where we get Indians, though at least we don't have to go West again, they still have a trip to San Diego).

They have a chance to sweep the Mets tonight; we need to do the same.

Beyond that the math/history is still pretty reliable. No team has made the wild card in the two-team era with less than 87 wins. Some years it has taken 88. Last year it was 91.

Maybe 86 will get it done this year. But that means the Phillies need to go 19-14 the rest of the way. They went 12-11 in July and are 13-12 in August with two games left. They had a losing record in June.

19-14 would be .575 baseball. Play .600 baseball - which they did in May, and they were also well over .500 in March/April- and they probably lock it down.

andyb 2019-08-29 21:53:40 UTC #269

Only 30 games left. Need to go 19-11 for 88. That is probably what it will take.

DurhamBull 2019-08-29 22:04:20 UTC #270

Totally possible. Likely? Er... But it would be lots of fun to watch.

zambonir 2019-08-29 22:24:22 UTC #271

Bad at math I guess

We know they have the talent to go 19-11, but they have not been able to show it for more than 3-4 games at a time before squandering a few.

For fun, some predictions:

Mets home 3-0 (what the heck)
Red away 2-2
Mets away 2-1
Braves home 2-2
Red Sox home - 2-0 (being positive, since they did it at Fenway)
Braves away 1-2
Indians away 1-2
Nats away 2-3
Marlins home 2-1

That's 17-13, so it wouldn't take much to do better. Or worse, if we don't own the Mets, play even worse on the road, struggle at home against the Braves/Sox or just blow it against the Marlins as usual.

phillychuck 2019-08-30 11:31:58 UTC #272

Too many road games to catch the Cubs or Nats. On to next year...

andyb 2019-08-30 13:20:02 UTC #273

Need to win every series. Schedule is not kind the next few days. We play a 7:00 ESPN game on Sunday night then a 2 PM afternoon game in Cincinnati on Monday. At least we'll have a large bench by then. Then that 5 games in 4 days in DC will be a major test for our bullpen. Really need the extra long relievers like Pivetta and Irvin and EDLS to give us 2 or 3 innings during that stint.

Austinfan 2019-08-30 13:22:29 UTC #274

I'll be happy with 85 wins. This team is still a couple years away, they need Bohm at 3B, Haseley to settle into CF, and SP depth to get to 90+ wins. If Arrieta bounces back, Eflin gets back to his first half, Vargas has one year left, and Cutch is close to 100% they might have a shot at 90 next year.

andyb 2019-08-30 13:30:20 UTC #275

You keep saying that the team is a few years away but that simply is not true. This team should have gotten at least one of their young starters to step up and they could have been luckier keeping players on the field (Cutch, Herrera, the whole bullpen). Wishing on Eflin is not the solution. He is a 4th/5th starter at best. You also are basically saying the Segura and Realmuto trades were a complete waste.

The reality is this team should have been in the 88-90 win range with normal development of young players. That and injuries is why it did not happen. Those are more serious questions than expecting our young players to develop and make a difference. We have a few good ones in Bohm and Howard and maybe Stott. But it is a below average system so if you hope to get better with young players then you are wishing on a 75-80 win team (because that is the quality of our system).

Luck is part of the problem. But we also did not get the most out of this roster. Hoskins is an example of this. Let's hope they pull it together now, but if not there are bigger problems to face.

Philsmania 2019-08-30 13:51:41 UTC #276

The bad luck was the bullpen completely imploding. I personally believe that had a domino effect on Pivetta, Velasquez and Efflin being disappointments as they had to go longer instead of being eased into going longer into games. It was bad luck that all three of Neshek, Hunter and Robertson broke down for a majority or almost all of 2019 but, at the same time, when you sign veteran relievers who have logged a lot of appearances in the seasons leading up to when you signed them, you are playing with fire.

zambonir 2019-08-30 16:23:30 UTC #277

I don't think those starters were rushed into going longer. They're also not kids. None of them were coming off an injury. Pivetta was bad before any relievers were even hurt, Eflin hit a big wall and Vinnie's kind of the same as he ever was (he also got hurt, that was what originally bounced him from the rotation). They also performed about the same as last year. The bullpen was designed to support this group of merely adequate starters (including the aging Arrieta). Then it broke. Old guy injuries definitely to be expected; catastrophic injuries to old guys and Arano and Seranthony (and Ramos, often) while none of the the other youngsters stepped up means everything went wrong.

The Sunday/Monday schedule seems counter to the CBA, I assume either ESPN trumps all or the distance between PA and Cincinnati isn't long enough (by contrast, Wednesday's game had to start at 6 to let the Pirates get on the road earlier).

As for next year, Middleton is probably sitting at home doodling Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon's names in his diary.

Florida_Sunshine 2019-08-30 18:45:32 UTC #278

I can’t locate it but where is the thread where everyone predicted number of wins for this team?

Florida_Sunshine 2019-08-30 18:47:28 UTC #279

Come on Andy, here you go again. This team needs more time to really contend. Not sure why you felt the need to challenge AustinFans post as it makes a lot of sense to me.

allentown 2019-08-30 18:50:00 UTC #280

I think you are correct in all points. It may be bad luck. It may equally be bad development staff (or amateur player selection or pro scouting of pitchers to acquire in off-season. After a while, bad luck becomes something other than simply luck.)

The other reason I disagree with AF's approach is that while he is correct that we certainly have players on the way in the minors, they seem to be 'useful players' not stars and it doesn't look like we have more help on the way from our minors than the average team or the competitors sitting above us in the standings.

The organizational strength is what it is, which to me means that if we are going to strongly contend in this cycle we need to push hard to do so sooner rather than later. Unlike the time leading up to 2008, there simply bolus of talent working its way through the farm to reach Philly in 2-3 years and make a huge difference.

andyb 2019-08-30 19:12:29 UTC #281

It is actually a cop out though to keep saying the team is a couple years away for 4-5 years. AF likes to say that but then endorsed the Segura and Realmuto trades. One does not do those trades if the team is not ready to contend. AF just refuses to criticize even when his very contention contains two contradictory points.

This WAS a team ready to contend. It looks to fall short for a variety of reasons. Bad luck - injuries, Herrera. Bad development (all the young pitchers, maybe Hoskins). And trades that were mediocre at best.

And the whole point of just wait for the prospects is just a bad point. Every team has prospects and ours are judged below average by neutral sources. Waiting for prospects seems to be a strategy of waiting to lose. That does not mean a Bohm might not solve a big problem. He might. But others teams will get prospects too to solve their problems.

I am looking for a little more sophisticated analysis here. It is easy to say we just need to wait. It is harder to analyze why this team did not win because it really should have been better than the result.

bkeich 2019-08-30 19:16:58 UTC #282

I dont see the rebuild being 2 years away, the simple fact is if it takes 2 years for us to contend, it has been a fruitless action.

This offseason the front office cashed in much of the rebuild to win now. We traded away our catcher, shortstop, possibly ace pitcher away in order to get players that were better NOW. Those players probably will not be better long term (well, Alfaro for Realmuto may not fall in that category) and we spent more than probably any team in league history on future contracts to win in the short term. If it takes 2 years all of those moves will have been failures.

Realmuto is a FA after next season. We could have just signed him then if we didnt think we could compete until 2021.
Segura is a FA after 2023, but he will be very expensive after 2021, he may or may not play to his contract at that point.
Hernandez has 1 more year of team control. He will probably be replaced by Kingery.

The simple fact is that our team is now not young, they are starting to enter their primes, are in them or in the case of some of our signings (McCutcheon) are past them. Waiting 2 more years will just mean we dont have enough quality players left to win, the guys in the minors now are ok prospects, but there is no one coming up that is likely to be a player that leads us to success, those players have to be Nola, Harper, Hoskins, etc.

The Front office MUST make moves for starting pitching this offseason, we are almost completely without quality starters, we have 1. Arrieta is a reasonble #4 starter, but we need a #2, #3 and #5, we have lots of #6-#9 already. If they want to contend virtually every dollar has to go to the pitching staff, which is frankly almost completely bare. Only returning starters should be Nola and Arrieta, only returning relievers should be Neris, Morgan and maybe a couple of the young guys. We need about 6 pitchers.