2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[julio]

As for Howard, he's had some arm issues this season already so innings are probably an issue with him. The plan for him to get time in the AFL. Long term it might be better for Howard to do the stretch in the Fall League after a bit of a rest than spend September pitching in Philly.

Spencer Howard isn't going to be called up - at least, I sincerely hope not.

1. He's not Rule 5-eligible this December, so adding him to the 40-man now would be burning a roster spot.

2. Reading is about to clinch a playoff spot. Would the Phillies yank the AA club's best starting pitcher, as that club heads into the post-season, for a long-shot run at a one-game wild card fiasco "play-in" to the post-season?

3. Howard has never pitched with the major-league baseball now in use (in the majors and in AAA). If his period of adaptation lasted two starts (which is optimistic), it would be mid-September, and the Phils would likely be out of the race. If it lasted longer...

4. Howard should go to the AFL, where he can deal with the juiced ball in a less-loaded environment.

5. Now, maybe I'm wrong, and they'll promote Howard next week. If they do... this would be a very bad comment on the judgment and motivations of the front office. This is the kind of "PR first" move that I would have expected from Bill Giles. That approach was... shall we say... less than entirely successful.

[Philsmania]

I wouldn't put it past the Phillies to call up Howard though. I remember last year how the Pigs had a great season but the Phillies raided their roster on September 1 rendering them dead meat in the IL postseason.

[julio]

I wouldn't put it past the Phillies to call up Howard though. I remember last year how the Pigs had a great season but the Phillies raided their roster on September 1 rendering them dead meat in the IL postseason.

Several call-ups on 9/1 last season: Altherr, Cozens, Rios.
Crawford on 9/4 (after the Rochester series, before the S/WB series).
Knapp on 9/7 (after the 'Pigs went down 0-2 to the Railriders).
Walding on 9/8 ('Pigs down 1-2 to the Railriders).
Anderson, De Los Santos, Saurez on 9/11 (after 'Pigs lost the series).

There's nothing here that would be comparable to calling up Spencer Howard. Essentially none of these players were prospects on the way up - all of them were already on the 40-man roster, and all of them had already seen time in Philadelphia.

That said... Of course, the Phillies might call up Howard. I just think it would be a really bad idea - the kind of thing I would have expected from a front office dominated by marketing types, but not from the current crew. But we'll see.

[andyb]

A callup from AA is much more rare, especially if the player has limited experience there. Hamels is one where he skipped most of the high minors and the small time in AAA was probably not necessary for him to succeed in the majors. I remember we got Bruce Ruffin from AA and he did well, but a polished lefty is a little bit different than Howard.

I think they are thinking about Howard more along the lines of what the Dodgers did with a Walker Buehler.(72 IP in AA and AAA) and Buehler was mostly in relief. Buehler also seems to have more command of his secondary pitches so I would not put Howard at quite the same level of readiness.

I would lean towards not doing this. If we had a shot at the division maybe, but for the second wild card it seems too risky for the limited reward.

[nycphils]

While I agree that I wouldn’t do it either, Kyle Kendrick is an example in 2007 of where this was done by the Phillies to good effect.

[andyb]

I forgot about Kendrick. He probably belongs in the Ruffin/polished pitcher category and they tend to do better than harder throwers with this sort of callup.

Even if it were 50-50 to work (i.e. Howard giving us 3 or 4 decent starts) I just think the downsides of it not working are greater.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't be quick to write off Smyly. Prior to going down in 2016, he was a promising pitcher. He's still on the comeback trail from TJ surgery. At about this time last season the Cubs shut him down due to his recovery being behind schedule. This season, he's made it through the year and is lengthening his outings. Its not been a great season for him this year but that is usually the case for pitchers two seasons out from TJ. Actually last night he almost made it through the sixth inning with numbers that would have made it a quality start. Perhaps Kapler let him go one inning too long?

Smyly is a free agent though, so the Phillies can't wait around to see what he's got left going forward. Whatever he can give them in September is fine, I don't think he's any worse than Irvin or all the demoted starters (and don't want to see Howard for the already-slim playoff odds) but at this point he's not going to show anything that screams out, "keep him!" in five remaining starts.

If they still think he's got some promise they can certainly offer him a cheap one-year contract but right now I'm not sure any team would give him anything other than a minor league deal. And since Vargas is out-performing him and is already under contract and we need at least one better pitcher via trade, Smyly would come into spring training as nothing more than one of several fifth starter candidates (as would Eflin and Velasquez and Pivetta, if they all survive).

[Philsmania]

It would not surprise me if next season Smyly suddenly got back to where he was before he got hurt. The problem is that we cannot count on it.

[zambonir]

Well, if they really think that, the cost would be minimal. Modest guarantee with incentives, second-year option with incentives (which he may not even want, better to just hit the market after a comeback year). And that's assuming a bad/lower-budget team would even offer him a major league deal. Then if he flops, become yet another team that releases him, possibly even in ST before the contract is fully guaranteed.

At the end of the day, assuming the Phillies do pick up Vargas's option and do acquire another pitcher, he might not even want to sign with us - another team will probably have more obvious openings in their spring training rotation.

It's entirely possible they are being patient with him because they committed to him as a starter when he signed and he's still not worse than the alternatives. Even though it is pure luck that he hasn't really cost us any wins except for that White Sox game.

[fish]

I say bring the kid up- while I don't think he's ready, I also think he has the ability to ride an adrenaline rush to dominate. If he doesn't, i don't seen the damage in starting him off in AAA next year.

Who are we trying to protect on the 40 man anyway that there isn't room for? There must be at least 14 guys who will be free agents or just straight need to be released, and maybe 2 that should be added.

Guys that will/should be cut loose before December:
Hernandez,
Morin
Smyly
Velazquez
Knapp
Morrison
Parker
Irvin
Franco
Pirela
Eickhoff
Nicasio
Davis
Rodriguez

Good grief there is a lot of crap on the roster.

[julio]

I say bring the kid up- while I don't think he's ready, I also think he has the ability to ride an adrenaline rush to dominate. If he doesn't, i don't seen the damage in starting him off in AAA next year.

I would think that the announcement of the AFL rosters - Spencer Howard is going to the AFL - would probably wrap up the "bring him up" discussion, at least in the media.

Squire and others have posted the Phils' AFL players in the Winter Leagues thread.

[zambonir]

Guys that will/should be cut loose before December:
Hernandez,
Morin
Smyly
Velazquez
Knapp
Morrison
Parker
Irvin
Franco
Pirela
Eickhoff
Nicasio
Davis
Rodriguez

That's a little aggressive. I would expect them to consider keeping Morin and Parker (I think they are both controlled?). Velasquez isn't going anywhere before the Rule V and may even be ahead of Pivetta at this point.

Hard to know for sure how they will proceed with Franco, but especially with Hernandez. I can't see him just being non-tendered and a trade might not happen before Rule V.

Don't know that Irvin and Knapp are guaranteed gone before Rule V either.

But, they also lose Hunter and Neshek and Dickerson.

I don't think it's about the 40-man space, I think it's about rushing Howard when he hasn't even touched the major league ball and starting his service clock for almost no reason.

Plus (as julio noted) he's going to the AFL which begins September 18. Doubt that plan is changing for a kid who started the year injured. (I assume if he gets called up he wouldn't even be allowed to play in that league, never mind that he'd be unavailable for a while.)

[Austinfan]

Given the adjustment to the ML ball, forget about AA pitchers.
Even the AAA pitchers have needed months to make the adjustment, especially the ones that really on a plus breaking ball.

I think the league will revisit the balls and raise the seams a little bit this offseason, if only to improve control and speed up games (or expand the K-zone).

[zambonir]

Isn't the league's position that they didn't do anything to the balls intentionally? Also, what makes us think they want to reduce the home runs? They seem more interested in reducing shifts and strikeouts.

It does not make sense to me that they use a different ball in AA (or even any minor league), though imagine what the Reading numbers would be with this ball!

[julio]

Isn't the league's position that they didn't do anything to the balls intentionally? Also, what makes us think they want to reduce the home runs? They seem more interested in reducing shifts and strikeouts.

They supposedly want to shorten game times. Slugfests don't go quickly. They'll have to decide what they really want.

As for the balls, you're correct - they apparently didn't deliberately juice the balls. They changed the mfg. process - actually probably reduced variability - but in the process produced a ball that breaks less, and carries more, as confirmed by assorted tests (by mlb and third parties). Again, they have to decide what they want.... but their attendance is slipping, so they'd better think hard.

[David_Criss]

I would add Robertson, Neshek, Hunter to your list. I think they try to trade Hernandez and Franco before they non tender them. I can see Smyly being given a minor league deal, I think Parker, Irvin, Morin are all brought back next year. I wouldn't mind seeing Miller and Dickerson being re-signed.

[allentown]

That list doesn't matter, because if those guys are all released, others will be signed and added to the 40-man to replace them. I also don't think we should release Irvin, nor do I think he would bring enough in trade to be worth trading him. He's another arm to throw into next year's mix. It's easy to say "I'm not happy with these relievers', quite another to replace half a dozen.

[zambonir]

Robertson can't be removed from the roster, DC. (I mean, I guess he could, but they probably don't want to. They may even have insurance on him that requires him to be on the IL. He won't be on the 40 once the season starts though.)

It's also rare to sign or trade for more than 1 or 2 players before the Rule V roster is set. Even more so these days, with the glacial free agent pace.

Without considering who they might need to protect (and that list is always a lot smaller than posters here think, because so few guys actually end up getting drafted) I doubt the Phillies have a 40-man crunch this off-season. Also I think they tend to deliberately hold on to a few disposable players for as long as they can (i.e. you don't trade an Alec Asher or release an Aaron Altherr until you've used up your last possible roster spaces in March).

[Austinfan]

The problem isn't that the ball carries more, that would have only a minor impact (it's only a few feet).
It's that the seams are lower, and thus harder to grip, making it harder to spin.

[zambonir]

MLB owns Rawlings now, so something is bound to happen.