2019 Phillies Season Discussion (part 2)

[Florida_Sunshine]

Andy, honestly I know what you are saying but you are jumping the gun on this one. First off, I will be honest, I like to read point and counterpoint.

But, as a stand alone post, AF is correct with his post. What bothers you is that he doesn’t acknowledge that Middleton needs to spend more money in the offseason to bring in more talent. I honestly think AF probably doesn’t feel the need for that and would want to wait another year or two. But, his post as stated is valid.

OK my man, be honest, how many wins did you predict this team would have this year?

And with all the injuries, this team is still today, right now, in serious contention for a wild card spot.

I am curious as to how many predicted that.

[bkeich]

And with all the injuries, this team is still today, right now, in serious contention for a wild card spot.

The other way to look at it is the team is barely a .500 team, and honestly the only reason they are over .500 is they had a good start. We are in the wild card hunt because the NL is oddly "flat" this year, with a few games over .500 being in the wild card. In a more normal year we would be long done at this point. The AL has very good and very bad teams, and we would be miles out of the wild card if in that league at the moment.

[bkeich]

This was prior to last season. Most people, including AustinFan, had us contending next season.

In what year do you expect the Phils to contend?

The simple fact is you can always say it is two years away, that is the default answer if the team is not very good unless you are in the situation we were in after 2012 when we were clearly further away. Since this pole we cashed in many of our younger players for older ones, signed the biggest contract in ML history and endured a shocking season where we literally had the entire bullpen on the DL and had to go guy find guys off the street to serve as starting pitchers.

We have to exit the "our prospects will get us over the top" idea at some point, that is the Montreal Expos cycle where they were constantly developing players that would then leave because the team never won. They did it much better than the current Phils farm system is doing it, but still all they did was provide talent to the league.

At some point the team has to put its cards down and say, we are going to try and win now. They did that last offseason after 5 seasons of futility, if they step back and try and "develop" over win again and shoot for 2022 they will just be restarting the cycle that we just went through.

[andyb]

But, as a stand alone post, AF is correct with his post. What bothers you is that he doesn’t acknowledge that Middleton needs to spend more money in the offseason to bring in more talent. I honestly think AF probably doesn’t feel the need for that and would want to wait another year or two. But, his post as stated is valid.

AF can speak for himself but it was not really a standalone post. It was a post that said this is a team that he'd be happy with 85 wins that can improve simply by waiting for prospects. Now one might assume that means not spending money, but the larger issue is the prospects. Ours are simply not above average. Bohm looks good among the close prospects. Who else though looks to be above average among position players? Not Haseley. And Howard is a really good pitching prospect but lots of organizations have several like him.

Assuming we'll get better by waiting for internal options to align with better luck is just not a good strategy and that is what AF's post implied. And it is not like he has not been saying we are a couple years away for several years.

Pretty sure I was in the 88-90 win prediction range also. I did not love all the offseason moves but they should have made us better in the short term. Disappointing development of younger players and bad luck is why we are not getting there.

[julio]

I dont see the rebuild being 2 years away, the simple fact is if it takes 2 years for us to contend, it has been a fruitless action.

This offseason the front office cashed in much of the rebuild to win now. We traded away our catcher, shortstop, possibly ace pitcher away in order to get players that were better NOW. Those players probably will not be better long term (well, Alfaro for Realmuto may not fall in that category) and we spent more than probably any team in league history on future contracts to win in the short term. If it takes 2 years all of those moves will have been failures.

After the 1978 season, when the Phillies had what was on paper the best team in the National League, but they fell short in the post-season, the Phillies bet the farm on the largest free agent signing to that point.... and finished in 4th place in 1979. For whatever reason, the cakewalk to the World Series that was supposed to happen... did not. The Phils' big gamble was evidently a failure.

Sometimes your plans just don't work out the way you expect them to - even if you've made the right decisions. But patience can bring rewards.

[bkeich]

the Phillies bet the farm on the largest free agent signing to that point.... and finished in 4th place in 1979. For whatever reason, the cakewalk to the World Series that was supposed to happen... did not. The Phils' big gamble was evidently a failure.

Sometimes your plans just don't work out the way you expect them to - even if you've made the right decisions. But patience can bring rewards.

Actually, you are kinda proving my point. The next year it finally worked and they won the WS. And that core also went to the WS 3 years later (with some additions), had a very good 1981,etc.. It wasnt years away, it was the beginning of a run, it was just that 1979 was a hiccup (a bad year by our pitching staff, McGraw and the rest of the bullpen were awful, a few starters had below average seasons and the Pirates just being "the team"). The Phils were not still years away after the spending, they tried to make a move and it worked, it was just delayed a year. Hopefully we are in that situation now, not still "years away" as has been suggested and what I was commenting on.

My comment was that we are not STILL 2 years away, we should be much closer and we should not be waiting for our prospects to get us over the top. As PC points out our farm system is pretty short right now, and what it is really short of is stars about to emerge, there is really no one (Bohm fills a need and might be a solid player, Howard is exciting but still a bit of a "maybe", Moniak is flawed but improving, etc.).

[Austinfan]

If Herrera and Franco hadn't gone belly up we'd be contenders, if either Pivetta or Velasquez stepped up, we'd be serious contenders, if Arano and SD were healthy with those other items we'd be ahead of the Braves. But those things didn't happen.

We need Bohm b/c we have a hole in the IF, once he arrives and Kingery moves to 2B, if Haseley is the player he looks to become (average fielding CF with shot at .800+ OPS) our lineup is set. If Cutch doesn't look to be 100% I'd resign Dickerson and let Cutch play part-time in 2020.

We have to extend Realmuto who is >> Alfaro. Which is why he cost Sixto.
Segura is a placeholder for Stott/Simmons/Garcia - if the kids are for real, they'll shoot up the system, if not, hopefully Stott can give us similar production at 24 in 2022.

Once your lineup is set, guys like Quinn are luxury items, you can wait on Moniak, you can hope on others.

As far as pitching, Cole would be great but would you really give ANY pitcher with his mileage 6 years, $180+M?
Just look at Sale.
I think you go with Nola, Arrieta, Eflin, Vargas, pick up a pitcher or two, start Howard in AAA, and focus on building a deep bullpen so you don't have to overwork your starters.

As we saw last decade, build the lineup and eventually you'll get lucky with pitchers, build around a rotation and let the lineup decline and eventually your pitchers will implode (2012, 2013).

[allentown]

When you have as good a major league team as the Phillies have, you don't look 2 years down the road, unless you have reason to expect that an extraordinary amount of minor league or new $ (new stadium or TV contract for an impoverished team) is going to arrive at that time. There is not a great amount of help coming in that time span. We will have to find our help on FA market,(including AAA and scrap heap dives), Rule V, return to health of our players, and ML coaches and development staff unlocking more from players we have. There is really nothing about our present situation which augurs for patience.

[andyb]

I think you go with Nola, Arrieta, Eflin, Vargas, pick up a pitcher or two, start Howard in AAA, and focus on building a deep bullpen so you don't have to overwork your starters.

That would be one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. I guess you could spend $30 million on relievers to help on that end, but I am also guessing you are not recommending that.

[zambonir]

I actually think this team is far better than people are giving it credit for. While you can't discount injuries in the evaluation, what looks like an 84-win team today would almost certainly be a 90-win team with just McCutchen, an adequate Arrieta, and 2-3 of the injured relievers, even with an otherwise weak rotation beyond Nola, an inconsistent offense and the disappointing 3B/CF (mitigated somewhat by Kingery).

And if it had looked that good in mid-July they would have added better players than Vargas or Dickerson (though they've both been very good, and Dickerson especially is probably better than just about any extra OF they might have otherwise pursued).

Joe Sheehan revisited this topic again today too:

if Kapler was a bit more cuddly they would be writing sonnets for him. The Phillies are contending for a playoff spot despite losing Andrew McCutchen in June, despite getting seven innings from David Robertson, 24 from Seranthony Dominguez, 18 bad ones from Pat Neshek. Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos, key parts of last year's pen, have missed most of the year. Jake Arrieta pitched through an elbow injury for months before being shut down. Odubel Herrera has been out since May, when he allegedly assaulted his partner in Atlantic City. Herrera may not be much, but the Phillies have been running Scott Kingery and Adam Haseley out to center in his absence. (Roman Quinn is hurt, as he always is.)

The Phillies spent a lot of money in the offseason, made a lot of big moves, but in March they looked like a fringe division contender that probably didn't have enough pitching or enough defense behind that pitching. That's exactly what they have been. They've suffered, what, six, seven wins' worth of injuries, and on August 30 they're still a decent bet to get at least one playoff game in the deal. I don't think Kapler is a great manager, myself, but he is creative, always looking for edges. He's better in 2019 than he was in 2018, generally avoiding big mistakes.

The defensive improvement is also an underrated factor even if they are still not great. Anyway, brass tacks, they are contending now, they will contend next year, and the team will be designed to do so. Also one of Haseley/Bohm/Moniak/Stott won't be in the organization by this time next year (could be as soon as December, could be the deadline).

[Florida_Sunshine]

Well now, with the exception of FA, all of those other things are of the growth and patience mode.

I think we need to look at our money situation and ask if we can afford Cole. And if so, there is a big answer assuming he can stay healthy.

I suspect that Eflin and Arrieta will be more reliable, and better, next year.

I haven’t seen much talk about our future 2b, and I know you have previously felt he would be a star. I tend to agree that he is heading in that direction.

Pitching. Pitching. Pitching...

[allentown]

That is true, but I mentioned FA first, because I think that is where significant help can come from fastest. If our MLB scouts do a very good job, help can possibly be had at not huge expense. This also should be an area where the analytical guys can help.

[Taudawg]

It doesn't really matter wether we believe this team is ready to complete next year or sometime beyond that. The front office has made it clear they are ready to compete now. The moves last off season made this clear. There is no guarantee Realmuto is here beyond 2020. Cutch will be 34 in 2021. There isn't enough talent on farm to wait until 2021 or beyond. They will be active in free agency this off-season or the seats will be empty in 2020. They should not be looking at the teams above them in the standings. The only focus should be making moves to make the Phillies the best they can be.

[Austinfan]

Extending Realmuto should be the first order of business this winter.
Finding what it'll cost to retain Dickerson is #2 (platoon with Cutch, with Bruce as a bench bat or trade to AL).
Adding veteran pitching depth #3.

Cutch/Dickerson
Realmuto
Harper
Hoskins
Segura
Bohm (in July?)
Kingery
Haseley

Grullon, Hall, Gomez, Canelo, Listi, Stephen, Moniak, Pujols, L Williams (utility) as your LHV lineup
Nick Williams traded for a young pitcher

[flyers19rw]

Re-signing Realmuto is a must. I guess that both sides have decided not to talk during the season but a deal should get done as soon as possible after it is over. He seems to like it here so there’s no reason for not getting it done quickly.

[Taudawg]

Dickerson is a nice player but resigning him makes little sense to me - not at the money he will get. Cutch isn't a platoon guy, he hits both LHP and RHP well and is signed at 17 mil next year. If Cutch needs days off, Bruce will have to be the guy. The biggest needs I see on offense are CF and 3B. Assuming Kingery slides over to 2B next year. I'd like to see what we have in Haseley in CF. That leaves 3B as the one place they can upgrade without giving up prospects or signing someone long term.

I would rather they sign Mouse at 3B for 1 year and let Bohm have an entire year at AAA. Donaldson might also have to take another 1 year deal. Gyorko if the Phillies think Bohm will be mid-season ready.

As for pitching, that's a whole different story.

I can't see us getting anything of value for Nick Williams, IMO.

[zambonir]

Dickerson is intriguing but you'd have to be willing to play him (or Cutch) in CF part-time. And he has to be willing to sign. Don't see why he would be, and I wouldn't give him a multi-year deal at 31.

Otherwise I think they still need to consider signing a bench CF (and probably move on from Quinn). Or you sign a 3B and Kingery's still your multi-tool (and Hernandez stays).

Honestly we have no idea what they will do this time. I don't think we can discount Rendon (which would then mean trading Bohm for pitching). Not sure we can even discount them trading Hoskins for pitching (which some clickbait columnists have already suggested).

At this point Williams might get you someone else's Nick Williams, or a spring training bullpen/6th starter contender. Maybe he helps a little in a bigger pacakage.

[Taudawg]

I hope they don't pursue Rendon. I think he is a great player, but he'll be 30 next year and someone will be silly enough to give him 5 or 6 years. Hopefully the Nats, as they are already up to their ears in guaranteed money making it hard for them to make other improvements. We get Bohm for 6 years at a much smaller price and I am a believer in Bohm.

I wouldn't consider Hoskins untouchable. I think the perception is he is a star and better player than he is - popular with the fans and best buds with Bryce. He's exactly the kind of player other teams overpay to acquire. That said, Rhys is cheap and should be good enough through his arb years. I wouldn't create a need when there is none i.e. signing Santana last year.

[Philsmania]

I would like Todd Frazier for a one year deal at third.

[Austinfan]

No rush on Rhys, by the time we have to pay big money:
1) they come to a mutual agreement on a reasonable extension
2) Phillies know how Bohm, Stott, Simmons and Garcia turn out, i.e., if they have a SS/3B Bohm could move to 1B.
3) Hall turns out to be a 40 HR LH 1B (just kidding, Andyb)