2019 MLB Draft Speculation

[nycphils]

Does he have the athleticism for LF/RF if 3B doesn’t work out? With Hoskins and Bohm being uncertain for 3B even if his bat works out, wouldn’t be that excited to draft another guy who may end up at 1B.

[Nobody]

I actually think that is incorrect (regardless of whether you count true first-rounders or comp first-rounders). But If you really want to make a case for reflexive negativity about Arbuckle/Wolever/RAJ I think you definitely have to go back more than 10 years. Anyone who was overly negative between 2008 and 2013 was right.

I was extremely critical during this period about what I considered nothing less than borderline malpractice by the Phillies Front Office with their feeble approaches to the Draft and in LA during that timeframe of 2008 thru 2013.

I don't really post much anymore about that stuff because...

(1) the window that was open to them years ago to fix previous Draft and LA mistakes has now largely closed. And the new rules and caps don't allow big spending teams to dominate the Draft and LA to the extreme degree they used to be able to. While the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Rangers, etc were trying to capitalize on those loopholes and opportunities during those years the Phillies decided to sit on the sidelines and barely did anything bold or strategic in the Draft or in LA. They definitely didn't spend any real money in the Draft or LA that was needed to target the best players.

(2) I believe Klentak did a pretty good job this past offseason doing what he had to do...make trades for established MLB veteran players and spend hundreds of millions on free agent contracts to patch over the weak farm system that resulted from multiple years...probably a decade or more...of underinvestment

(3) just as I think there was some major luck involved with the Phillies great draft success from 1996 thru 2004 (Arbuckle succeeded in spite of the extremely negative influences of Giles/Montgomery) , I also think they have had just partly bad luck in recent years with all their 1st round picks. Instead of the Phillies drafting #1 overall or in the Top 5 and it being a year of where they would have had a chance to select a Bryce Harper, a Stephen Strausburg, a Gerrit Cole, a Manny Machado, a Mark Teixerira, etc, etc, etc...….unfortunately when they got Top 5 picks in recent years too often they have had a Mickey Moniak type player staring them in the face. That is not intended as a personal insult to Moniak, just a statement of fact that he just wasn't obvious MLB superstar material like some other Top 5 overall type picks in the past 10-20 years.

[Squire]

Phillies to stick with 'simple approach' in Draft

MLB.com Phillies Draft Preview

[phillychuck]

Squire wrote this elsewhere:

So it seems like any of the following are legit possibilities for the Phillies at 14

Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech
Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC
George Kirby, RHP, Elon
Zach Thompson, LHP, Kentucky
Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane
Gunnar Henderson, 3B, HS
Brennan Malone, RHP, HS
Quinn Preister, RHP, HS

Anyone want to rank 'em as if we have a chance for all of them?

[Squire]

If those are my choices?

1. Rutledge
2. Thompson
3. Hoese
4. Kirby
5. Langeliers
6. Henderson
7. Jung
8. Preister
9. Malone

[phillychuck]

I'm going to reply to myself and rank 'em...

1. Rutledge
2. Henderson
3. Thompson
   3a. Hoese
4. Kirby
5. Jung
6. Langeliers
7. (tie) Malone/Preister (don't like HS pitchers)

Squire: Eerily similar--we posted about the same time...main difference is I like Henderson a little more.

[flyers19rw]

Langelier's doesn't work for me and I'm glad to see that others don't rate him that highly. A good glove/weak bat catcher in the first round doesn't excite me. Guys like that can be had further down in the draft. The system could use a SP with the helium to move up the ladder to the majors at a quick pace. Hopefully one of Rutledge, Kirby or Thompson fall to 14. If not, then Henderson or Hoese would be my preference. I understand that the Phillies are not drafting at the top level of the round where the talent starts to slide a bit after pick seven or eight. Still, at 14, the organization should be looking to get a potential impact player not a bench filler.

[bigegypt0417]

Is Manoah not making lists because he's going earlier or is it more about him not being someone to take at 14?

[Squire]

I don't think Manoah gets to 14 I also haven't seen the Phillies linked to Manoah in any way. I don't think Rutledge gets to 14 but on a couple of occasions I have read that the Phillies would take Rutledge if he does.

[bigegypt0417]

the article you posted mentions him as someone they are connected to...

[teabag259]

Obviously we want to take the proverbial BPA but to me we need a frontline starter first.

[Squire]

You are correct. It does. I missed that.

[zambonir]

You can't really get a frontline starter at 14. You might not even get a #2 starter. On paper, anyway. Go high school and hope you've got a pitcher (and someone who hasn't been hurt) in five years?

[Squire]

New BA Mock:

1. Orioles - Adley Rutschman, C,
2. Royals - Bobby Witt, Jr., SS
3. White Sox - Andrew Vaughan, 1B
4. Marlins - J.J. Bleday, OF
5. Tigers - Riley Greene, OF
6. Padres - C.J. Abrams, SS

7. Reds - Nick Lodolo, LHP
   Note: Starting to see this as near consensus on the first 7 in order

8. Rangers - Brett Baty, OF

9. Braves - Alex Manoah, RHP (also connects the Braves to Kody Hoese)
10. Giants - Hunter Bishop, OF
11. Blue Jays - Bryson Stott, SS
12. Mets - Jackson Rutledge, RHP
13. Twins - Shea Langeliers, C
14. PHILLIES - GREG JONES, SS, UNC-WILMINGTON (What??) - The Phillies have been tied to a number of different players, including prep shortstop Gunnar Henderson, prep righthander Brennan Malone and all of the aforementioned college names that get mentioned around this range. One rumor we’ve heard lately is that the Phillies like Jones’ exciting toolset, and he’s finished the season strong enough to push himself into the middle of the first round. Still, some sources think this would be too rich. This should be the floor for Rutledge if he’s still on the board.

[andyb]

Frontline starter is really an misnomer. There will not be pitchers with both high end stuff and superior command at 14. So the choice might be between Kirby (average stuff, great command, kind of a Nola lite) or a bigger arm that might take some time.

Kirby would be both safer and quicker to the majors. Can't imagine expecting him to help much before 2021 under most realistic scenarios.

[Squire]

First 3 picks of each of Almaraz's 4 drafts with the Phililes

2015
Randolph - HS Hitter
Kingery - College Hitter
Williams - HS Hitter

2016
Moniak - HS Hitter
Gowdy - HS Pitcher
Stobbe - HS Hitter

2017
Haseley - College Hitter
Howard - College Pitcher
Seabold - College Pitcher

2018
Bohm - College Hitter
Eastman College Pitcher
Vierling - College Hitter

All picks are not crreated equal but....which category has Almaraz been more successful at?

[julio]

College hitters: Kingery, Haseley, Bohm, Vierling - looks pretty OK.

College pitchers: Howard, Seabold, Eastman - two out of three are on the IL... but, pitchers.

HS hitters: Randolph, Williams, Moniak, Stobbe - eh. It may simply be too early on the HS players; Randolph, Moniak, Williams are all in AA, and none is dominating. Stobbe is in A-ball, and either injured or playing himself out of professional baseball.

HS pitchers: Gowdy: Again, injured. I mean, he's pitching now, but he's missed beaucoup development time. Pitchers.

General comments: You would expect college players from recent drafts to be performing at higher levels, and mostly they are. You would expect a higher overall hit-rate on college draftees than HS draftees, because they're more developed/mature at time of draft, so there's less failure risk. Early performance on these guys seems to support these expectations.

All things being equal - Your best bet to get a valuable player, statistically, looks to be with a college hitter. Some HS players, and/or college pitchers, will turn out better, but the odds aren't so good - pitchers at all levels because they get hurt, and HS hitters because there's a lot of development needed, which may or may not occur.

[fish]

In the milb podcast Jim Callis noted that Zack Thompson didn't "fully participate" in the pre-draft MRI program. I'd have to think that will knock him back - maybe to 20? Also said that he felt like he had really good feedback for picks through #14, and that after that is a crapshoot. That makes his pick of Langeliers a bit more trouble some. Though not Greg Jones-troublesome (these guys are killing me!).

[zambonir]

Seems more significant that both of the true Klentak drafts are 100% college. In 2016 he was still working with mostly inherited data (or no data) and also, may have been feeling a little more patient.

Almaraz already made it sound pretty certain it will be college this year (assuming someone unexpected isn't in the mix). Part of that, for a data-driven front office, is that there's more to analyze, more reliably.

[allentown]

If the Phillies want to rely on analytics, it makes sense to focus college with the primo picks, because analytics seem totally unproven for H.S. kids. Didn't "fully participate" in MRI program = knows he's injured, wants as big a bonus as possible. We can get a good prospect at #14, but that's too low a pick to draft on high ceiling, because all the high ceiling/low-moderate risk guys will be gone. I think Kirby would be fine as a pick. Nola was the 'safe' pick when we took him and turned out to have a much higher ceiling than expected. Excellent command/control can do that if the pitcher has roughly average stuff. This year, Nola is getting it done with not all that great control, so...