2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

Part of that is the phenomenon where spending money leads worse decisions. Part of it is better evaluations and development/coaching, clearly.

But most of all, it is obviously that the Rays have a strong culture in place going back to Andrew Friedman, and it's no coincidence he runs the Dodgers and his family tree is everywhere.

And unlike us, the Rays have a true two-man baseball department, with Chaim Bloom (who is as young as Klentak but has been with the Rays for 15 years and a hands-on GM (also that young, but is in his 13th season and third as GM).

Imagine the Phillies having anyone who'd be worth keeping around for 15 years! Arbuckle was probably the last one.

We all know the old football saying (Bum Phillips) "he can take his'n and beat your'n, and then he can turn around and take your'n and beat his'n." If Chaim Bloom was the Phillies GM would we be succeeding or would he be failing? Same question if Kapler and Klentak were in Tampa.

[BostonRoss]

I agree that getting a really good starting pitcher is important. I’m doubtful about getting Cole, though. There might be some trade possibilities—you never know. But I suspect we won’t have a great 2020, and so improving the offense is even more critical, and I think that’s more doable than getting a stud starter.

[zambonir]

It's only money. If Middleton is really unhappy about this season and contemplating major changes, he's probably also ready to give out the largest contract in pitching history, especially if MacPhail is what stopped them from signing Corbin.

Of course he could also draw the opposite conclusion. "Oops, I pressured my front office to spend too much money and make too many short-term moves and not only did we not have a winning record but our future looks worse than it did a year ago, can we really afford to have Harper, Realmuto and Gerrit Cole on the books in 2023?

But there are other acceptable free agent pitchers out there. The trade candidates are actually the guys who have wound up being a bit underwhelming - Boyd, Ray. Plus they missed on Stroman. And Minor is presumably no longer available.

[BostonRoss]

My doubt about getting Cole is not so much worry that the Phillies won't spend what it takes (though that is a possibility). It's more that there will be so much competition for them that no one team can simply assume they can throw the most money at him. If the Yankees were to decide they wanted him, they could simply outbid the Phillies. There's also the possibility that Cole will actually base his decision on something other than the team that outbids the others by a small amount. He might decide that he wants to play in a certain pat of the country, or with a team that is already a powerhouse.

[mdougherty12]

For what it's worth, Gerrit Cole grew up an Angels fan in Orange County, and the Angels could certainly use a starter or two:

Would the Angels pay big bucks to sign elite starter Gerrit Cole this offseason?

[zambonir]

No question the "he'd prefer the West Coast" factor has to be considered. But it just so rarely matters. Corbin was a Yankees fan. Machado did not want to play in San Diego. The Phillies were plainly not Harper's first (or even 5th) choice when he started dreaming of free agency. I don't know if the Phillies can write the biggest check (or what problems that would cause, both short and long-term) but the biggest check is gonna get him. He's a Boras client too.

[mdougherty12]

I don't expect Gerrit Cole to give the Angels a big hometown discount, but I do think the Angels might want to make a splash. They're finally nearing the end of the Pujols contract, and they don't really have much money committed long term beyond Trout.

[BostonRoss]

The Angels sometimes throw crazy money around, and they might view Cole as someone they really need to get. If so, it might be hard to outbid them.

I wonder whether Boras might try to wait teams out as he did with Harper.

[flyers19rw]

I was out in SD last week. In a chat with some Padres fans, their hope was that Strasburg would opt out of his deal with the Nats and return home. Perhaps they’d rather have him than Cole?

[zambonir]

Hard to tell on Strasburg. Scott's gonna be busy in any case.

Heck, Keuchel is a free agent too, shouldn't we include him on any list? Is he better than Hamels? Bumgarner? Giving up something for Boyd or Ray?

[allentown]

Why are the Rays able to put together winning ball clubs and the Phillies can’t seem to?

Their baseball side professionals (scouts, coaches, managers, GM) do a far better job than ours at identifying and developing amateur draft/international young talent, developing that talent, and getting the most out of that talent at the MLB level. They also seem to do better at identifying mid-priced quality FA who perform for them. Our baseball-side people seem to be below average in performance (ability?) and our organization seems to be in a constant state of churn. At the upper levels and analytics we've recently hired seemingly very smart, but utterly inexperienced guys who are taking multiple-years to learn their jobs (GM, manager, pitching coach, stats department). Tampa has done better than us for a while on a lot less money. We can afford the big signings, but can't match their low-cost success. k

[mdougherty12]

Why are the Rays able to put together winning ball clubs and the Phillies can’t seem to?

Their baseball side professionals (scouts, coaches, managers, GM) do a far better job than ours at identifying and developing amateur draft/international young talent, developing that talent, and getting the most out of that talent at the MLB level. They also seem to do better at identifying mid-priced quality FA who perform for them. Our baseball-side people seem to be below average in performance (ability?) and our organization seems to be in a constant state of churn. At the upper levels and analytics we've recently hired seemingly very smart, but utterly inexperienced guys who are taking multiple-years to learn their jobs (GM, manager, pitching coach, stats department). Tampa has done better than us for a while on a lot less money. We can afford the big signings, but can't match their low-cost success. k

Looking at the current Rays roster, their success in 2019 is really based on players acquired in trades or for free that improved significantly in Tampa, not on guys they acquired as amateurs. In fact, the 2 key actual homegrown guys, Snell and Kiermaier, had down years in 2019. The key to 2019 is guys like Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz, Austin Meadows, Avisail Garcia, and Travis D'Arnaud; all of whom improved their performance significantly in Tampa.

[Squire]

Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz for Chris Archer was a heist.

[bigegypt0417]

Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz for Chris Archer was a heist.

it really was a crime.

[Squire]

Just posted from the Phillies Social Media Accounts:.......

Happy Birthday Phil Gosselin

[Philsmania]

Just wondering but does anyone think J.A. Happ might be a good bounceback candidate? He had a poor year with the Yankees. Let's say the Yankees go out and make some big moves that bolster their starting staff and suddenly have no room for Happ or want more financial flexibility. Could the Phillies get him for a song and/or with the Yanks paying a big chunk of his salary?

[zambonir]

That crossed my mind too. But Hamels is younger, still seemingly better and available for nothing (in terms of trade). And probably the same $ and years too. Happ's option will probably vest for 2021 unless he's hurt or flops (it requires 27 starts, he made 30 this year).

[EDmuch]

I think the big difference between the Phils and Tampa comes down to the ability of each franchise to accurately evaluate talent. The example of what Tamp got for Chris Archer versus what we got for Cole Hamels is a cogent example. But the Archer/Glasnow trade is not an isolated example. Tampa repeatedly makes shrewd moves and finds pieces of gold in the guys they pick up in trades. If it that Tampa's scouts are so much better than ours or is it that the management of Tampa knows how to use data in a way that provides a more accurate evaluation of personal, I am not sure. But it seems to underscore the weakness in our front office.

And, of course, that no good Charlie Morton did win the Wild Card game last nite. Another example of Tampa's ability to more accurately assess player potential.

[EDmuch]

I think it is almost a given that we will be bring back Hamels on a 2-3 year deal. But Hamels is no longer a real difference maker. The key will be who they add (other than Cole who I think we have very little chance in getting) in addition to Hamels. We will need someone who can function as a genuine No. 2 starter.

[Austinfan]

Or a low budget means you take a lot of "upside" chances instead of using money to buy "sure things" like Arrieta.
When it works you look brilliant, when it doesn't, blame your financial constraints.

This is why I consistently preach the Phillies should be run like a small budget team (in terms of philosophy), using financial resources to tie up key talent (what small budget teams can't do) but not to purchase talent, because that makes an organization lazy (why pursue street free agents, trade 2nd tier veterans for prospects, etc. when you can buy from both Column A and Column B?).