2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[zambonir]

Seems like sons are trying to be more judicious with their inheritance?

[andyb]

It is not quite as bad as the rights fee amount (which is like $60 million a year from the judicial ruling). The rights fee is below the true market value because of team ownership of the station. The Orioles own most of it, but the Nats now own a little over 20% of it. Their share started at 5% and grows 1% a year till it hits 33%. I doubt they get more than $20 or $30 million more in their profit share, but it does add something.

Most teams do this to have fewer dollars going into the revenue share pool. The players need to do better on that issue in the next CBA.

[BostonRoss]

My feeling is that the Phillies need a substantial offensive upgrade. It won't be in RF or at C, and probably not at SS or 1B. That leaves 2B, 3B, CF, and LF. I wouldn't mind seeing two offensive studs come in to play two of those positions. Presumably Kingery fills one of the four spots (not necessarily always at the same position. So I would say that we shouldn't commit to any of our current players at any of those positions--that means Hernandez, McCutchen, or Haseley (or Franco, obviously). It doesn't mean that those guys can't be on the team (McCutchen certainly will be unless he's traded), but that one or more of them may be more of a bench player, as Bruce will be and anyone else they decide to retain.

I think it would be unwise to assume Bohm will contribute in 2020; if he forces his way into the lineup over the summer, then it's a nice problem to have.

[andyb]

I guess my question is more one of priorities. They probably need to bring in a true defensive CF if Kingery is likely to play in the IF somewhere. But with Bohm coming, do you risk not doing a major offensive upgrade somewhere for the purpose of devoting resources to the starting rotation? I am not sure adding Cole Hamels or someone like that would be enough. If they can't get Cole do they need to trade for a solid mid-rotation starter somewhere? I think they do. Adding more innings from the starters will take away those innings from the bullpen also.

On offense they would be bringing in a RH true CF. Maybe a LH 3B though they could easily keep Miller in that role if they feel good about Bohm. A better backup catcher is also possible. Maybe Moustakas is finally a fit for them if the Phillies are ready to go 2-3 years on him. He seems credible at 2B also so there might be room to play everyone if they move on from Cesar.

I go for Cole first. Need to think of the pitching strategy if we can't get Cole of course (which is likely).

[saycheese]

This is going to be a fascinating off-season. The big thing we have to figure out is how do we get 15-20 games better? Not one area is going to do it. Just changing the Manager nope, just adding some additional starting pitching and getting healthier in the bullpen nope, adding additional everyday players nope. Last offseason they concentrated pretty much only on the lineup and left the pitching void. I fear this offseason it will be about only pitching and the offense won't be addressed. I personally would look to do this.

1.Bring back Brad Miller. I think he can play a super sub role and give us some pop off the bench
2. Bring back Cory Dickerson and make him the everyday left fielder.
3. McCutchen is the CF either platooning with Haseley or
4. Haseley has value and should be shopped in a package for additional pitching (Moniak isn't too far away)
5. I put Kingery at 3rd and leave him there.
6. I would let Cesar go and sign a guy like Jonathan Scoop for about half the cost. Scoop will have a lower OBP but will hit with more power but the key here is that he is going to cost about half of what Cesar will.
7. Resign Realmuto
8. Bring Back Cole Hamels, he is not the Cole of old but he is a solid number 3.
9. They really need to sign one of Cole, Bumgarner, Ordorizzi or Wheeler.
10. I would keep my bullpen signings to lower priced guys. The FA market doesn't look good. With the way that guys like Irvin, Saurez etc. started to pitch during the end of the year I would rather train up some of the guys we have.

Of course the whole Manager thing is another topic. Lots of work to do beyond the MLB club. We have to get the whole player development thing straightened out. We all follow the draft get excited about certain guys , say they were selected around where they should be and then they flame out. I can't help but think player development is a huge reason for this.

[zambonir]

It's almost impossible to improve by 10-15 games (even though the Phillies under genius manager Gabe Kapler did it last season ) But you have to assume this was an 87-90 win team when healthy, and try to improve it by 5 or 6 games.

Cutch in CF is an option but I'm not sure it makes the team better. Also he's the short end of a platoon and that's not actually going to happen (unless he turns out to be cooked).

Honestly I also kind of think with Dickerson it's best to just be impressed with what he did and thank him for his service then hope he can do it again (let alone on a three-year deal). But that does change if you trade Haseley. Or if the market isn't there for him and he's willing to take a reduced deal/role. These things have a way of working out once the injuries hit.
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Unless they can trade for or sign a viable CF option keeping Kingery there half of the time is probably the key to everything. Easier to find other IF options.

The whole Segura to 2B (or 3B) scenario would mean getting someone like Grigorious (could he bounce back?), Iglesias or hey, Freddy Galvis to play some SS.

I think it's going to be a deeply crazy off-season, just as busy as last year. Because if Kapler doesn't go Middleton isn't going to be timid, and Klentak's job will be on the line. And if Klentak and Kapler both go who knows what a new GM would do, especially if it's someone like Gillick or Dombrowski ("like," not those actual guys) with little reason to think more than three years ahead.

[Austinfan]

Why would you trade a 24 year old OF who was the #8 pick and so far has lived up to his draft position?
Isn't that a formula for deep sixing the franchise?
Even if he ends up in LF, his plus plus defense there means a RC+ of 110 is a 3-4 WAR player.
We're not talking Crawford who flatlined and continued to do so in Seattle.

Haseley, with Kingery, Hopkins, Harper and Bohm, should be a foundation piece for this team.

Cutch isn't playing CF coming off an ACL.
Segura is your short-run SS, Hernandez 2B unless they land someone.
It would be nice to add a RH CF with plus defense, but good luck (though if Quinn could stay healthy . . .)

[zambonir]

I certainly don't trade Haseley because I'm banking on Moniak. But as with any "let's trade _____" discussion, it depends entirely on who they get. In a vacuum there was no reason to trade Alfaro, and certainly not Sixto, last year. But for the guy they got it made sense.

I think the free agent pitching market is deep enough that the Phillies don't have to give up top talent in a trade, but it remains to be seen.

You can't assume Haseley is a sure thing 3-4 WAR player for years to come. If that were really true than yes, he'd basically be untouchable. Right now that's just one possibility. Of course that's also another strong reason not to trade him - most opposing scouts don't think he's that good, which means his value isn't high enough to land a blue-chip piece. If everyone thought what you did, it might be.

[andyb]

Even if he ends up in LF, his plus plus defense there means a RC+ of 110 is a 3-4 WAR player.

Where did you make that stat up. He had a wRC+ of 88 this year. Any stat with positional adjustments would be harsher in LF. His defense there is pretty good, but not sure it is good enough to make him a 3-4 WAR player unless the offense improves.

Haseley is still a tweener. Not enough defense to be a good CF and not enough offense to be a good LF. That does not mean he is not a good player and can't improve. He is just far from a foundation piece for a team. Harper is the only sure thing among your foundation pieces. Kingery has a good shot to be but there are questions as to whether he'll be above average anywhere. Hoskins has huge offensive questions now (and poor 1B defense now that we have seen a year). And we have no clue how good Bohm is yet. Offense looks like it projects. Defense is a huge question still.

Crawford also did not "flatline". He has shown he can put up a 700 OPS at a more difficult position than Haseley. While being young enough to get better.

Klentak does need to make some choices about foundation pieces. I just have little confidence he'll make the right ones after last season. Knowing what happened this season, the best thing for him to have done in hindsight would have been to trade Hoskins, play Santana at 1B, and keep Crawford at SS. Trading Hoskins might have gotten us the starting pitcher we needed without spending $20+ million a year.

[Squire]

Middleton is obviously hunkered down trying to come up with another half dozen "Special Assistant to the...." jobs to exile the current leadership

[fish]

Middleton is obviously hunkered down trying to come up with another half dozen "Special Assistant to the...." jobs to exile the current leadership

They're going to have to build a whole new wing of cubicles to accommodate them.

[Philsmania]

I certainly don't trade Haseley because I'm banking on Moniak. But as with any "let's trade _____" discussion, it depends entirely on who they get. In a vacuum there was no reason to trade Alfaro, and certainly not Sixto, last year. But for the guy they got it made sense.

They should consider trading Moniak after he came off a relatively good season in AA and before he has the chance to struggle in AAA.

[zambonir]

Sure. He doesn't get you much either, but it's a start.

Moniak, Pivetta and a prospect for a third starter? Throw in one more piece to get a good CF?

I could see them trading for a controllable veteran reliever that wouldn't cost much.

Inquirer has a handy breakdown of contract status and salaries here. One thing that I noticed - it's actually not that hard to carry, or trade, Herrera, because of the low AAV. But $30 million between Cutch and Segura isn't going to look that good in 2021 (though they'll lose Arrieta).

Moneyball: An early look at Phillies’ 2020 projected payroll | Extra Innings

[andyb]

I think Pivetta is the one of the three young starters not eligible for arbitration yet. Given the way he ended the season I think he has the most upside for the smallest risk. I'd hang onto him instead of trading him for pennies on the dollar. I still want to try him as a starter, but looking at our young arms, who actually would be more likely to be a successful high leverage reliever than Pivetta? We have a decided lack of power arms in the bullpen. He at least is that.

[zambonir]

I was just using him as an example but I'm also assuming his upside/cheap salary makes him more valuable (compared to Velasquez. And assuming Eflin isn't going anywhere though no one should be untouchable).

I guess I don't see a scenario where both Pivetta and VV are in the bullpen next season, and I don't see one of them locking down a rotation spot either (just in the mix as one of several #6 options).

If the overall deal gets you a third or fourth starter it's not really pennies on the dollar. If someone doesn't add anything to a package that keeps you from trading more prospects then of course, don't include them.

The Pivetta decision likely depends on what happens from the front office on down to the pitching coach too of course. In that sense he's surely worth another shot.

[bigegypt0417]

You can't assume Haseley is a sure thing 3-4 WAR player for years to come. If that were really true than yes, he'd basically be untouchable. Right now that's just one possibility. Of course that's also another strong reason not to trade him - most opposing scouts don't think he's that good, which means his value isn't high enough to land a blue-chip piece. If everyone thought what you did, it might be.

This is where i'm at. I would keep Haseley and hope he's at least capable or does turn in to a 3-4 WAR OF'er while using my dollars on bigger needs.

[Austinfan]

Pivetta isn't a starter, period.
He lacks a 3rd pitch and struggles getting his knuckle curve over.
And his 4 seamer is straight as an arrow, he needs the velocity jump he gets out of the pen.

[baseballoldie]

I find it interesting that the Rays 25 man wild card roster contains 15 players that weren’t even in the organization at the beginning of 2018. Look at the list of their position players and pitchers - are there any superstars other than maybe Snell on that roster?

Rays Announce Wild Card Roster

Why are the Rays able to put together winning ball clubs and the Phillies can’t seem to?

[andyb]

Pivetta isn't a starter, period.
He lacks a 3rd pitch and struggles getting his knuckle curve over.
And his 4 seamer is straight as an arrow, he needs the velocity jump he gets out of the pen.

But he did have 4 pitches in 2018. His problem in 2019 was that his off-speed stuff was less good than in 2018. You are kind of inventing the fact that he does not have multiple pitches. The question is whether he can get his location and spin back to where they were in 2018. Having velocity is also better than not having velocity. Pivetta lost a bit of that in 2019 also.

Pivetta clearly has issues. Like most pitchers his stuff will play up in the bullpen. But he clearly has starter's stuff. Certainly his stuff is better than Eflin's even if his command isn't. He just did not have the same raw stuff and location he had in 2018 and getting back to that could lead to him being a decent starter. He has more roster value to the Phillies than they could get for him in a trade at this point.

[Austinfan]

Pivetta's stuff isn't better than Eflin
Pivetta may have 1 MPH on his FB as a starter, but both pitchers lack movement like Velasquez.
Eflin has a solid 2 seamer with good movement, Pivetta doesn't.
Eflin has worked on his changeup and has a decent slider/cutter, Pivetta doesn't.

Pivetta did have a good curve last year which was essential to set up his mediocre (i.e. hittable) fastball.
But two pitch pitchers are better suited to the pen.