2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[schillingfan]

That may be true of the muscle tears. It might not be true of the elbow ligaments. We shall see.

Most bullpen management/abuse comes down to not having better options.

I’m not a doctor but I spent years reading medical reports for personal injury lawyers, defense and plaintiffs. Ie always gotten the impression that most ligament tears require surgery. Muscle tears can heal themselves, as strains can be small tears. Elbows tend to be ligaments. Of course shoulders can be rotator cuff tears, which may heal or require surgery.

[zambonir]

Well Seranthony's injury is to his elbow, and is a partial tear of his UCL specifically. Nola had the same injury (termed a "strain" at the time) without needing surgery. So whatever muscle tears or tiredness Seranthony may or may not have had either is a non-issue or contributed to the weak ligament.

I don't know if that means Seranthony's UCL can heal on its own or if it is just not serious enough to merit the arthroscope but it's potentially an issue. Did Nola heal, or has he just been able to pitch w/o pain or re-injury? No idea.

[allentown]

Did Nola heal, or has he just been able to pitch w/o pain or re-injury? No idea.

Wouldn't he have had to do a lot of healing, maybe not good as new but largely healed, to be able to pitch w/o pain or reinjury? Pitching is a lot of force to impose upon an unhealed ligament.

[zambonir]

Well, I was questioning SF's assertion that ligament strains/tear don't repair on their own. I reckon they do if they aren't major. But I also imagine that every pitcher on a major league staff is walking around with microtears all season. Not only do we not know, but even someone reading an MRI won't necessarily know.

Another example would be Cliff Lee. He was hoping to pitch again without surgery. But his battered, aging body did not heal enough for him to do that in the time he had left, and he wasn't willing to have surgery to drag out a career that was almost over anyway.

Morgan is also on this list though his injury was to the flexor. Which is also a ligament. Also termed a strain, and did not require surgery.

Any of these guys could wind up feeling pain just weeks into spring training whether you consider it the same injury, a re-injury or a new injury. But, we're also programmed to assume the worst because no one remembers the guys who come back fine (Nola excepted).

[andyb]

Most bullpen management/abuse comes down to not having better options.

This is true, though the better managers will have a usage plan for each arm in the bullpen and stick to it as much as they can. Sometimes this means letting a young pitcher blow a close game. Or take a beating because we can't overuse the back end of the bullpen.

[Austinfan]

Yep. One sign of an insecure manager is managing to win every game, instead of understanding it's a campaign, not a battle, and you have to focus on strategy to get through a 162 game schedule, instead of merely tactics.

[zambonir]

And I can certainly remember Gabe doing that too. Ramos blowing a save. Nicasio in high-leverage spots (though he eventually became a high-leverage guy, and got overused). I can remember him being accused of not trying to win because Irvin and Pivetta were pitching. Certainly whatever else they weren't good at Kapler and Young had a plan. They were not that good at Plan B, I'd say (same way some football coaches still run their first 15 plays even if they are already losing 10-0).

In 2018 it was more because of the starters collapsing in August (which also happened last year of course).

There are a lot of arms still out there, including all the ones we had last year. Nobody you can confidently say would provide 1.0 WAR compared to a AAA guy, but I'm sure we'll see a few in Clearwater.

[allentown]

So many pitchers and only 2 of them projected as high as +0.5 WAR. At least they ought to be cheap and a few may actually beat +1.0 WAR. Best signed to deals that don't add them to 40-man unless they prove themselves.

[flyers19rw]

What’s the situation with Drew Smyly? He showed some flashes of competency last September.

[zambonir]

Absolutely those are all minor league deal guys at this point unless they take a very small guarantee ($1 million at most).

Smyly is probably still hoping for a guaranteed/incentive deal himself. We probably can't do that. Will he get it? Who knows? A guy like him is also probably better off signing with a bad team that hands him a rotation spot, knowing he'll get flipped to a contender later.

[EDmuch]

I am still amazed that they wont spend another $10 million to get a couple of solid right handed relievers in order to help protect their $200 million dollar investment.

[andyb]

The decision might hinge in part on whether the team thinks they might go after a free agent that accepts the QO next offseason. Compensation increases from a 2nd round draft pick plus $500K in international pool to an extra draft pick (2nd and 5th highest) plus $1 million internationally.

The tax rate itself would be nominally low the first year (20% on the overage so an extra $2-$3 million if we were $10-$15 million into the luxury tax. Things get worse the second year obviously (tax up to 30%), but then in the third year it would be subject to the new CBA.

[julio]

I am still amazed that they wont spend another $10 million to get a couple of solid right handed relievers in order to help protect their $200 million dollar investment.

Their investment isn't at risk? At least from their perspective?

Return on investment comes from revenues above costs, plus long-term capital gains. Are the Phillies in any danger of having total revenues (TV, radio, gate, concessions, merchandise, TV, TV) come in under costs? Are they in any danger of the long-term value of the franchise diminishing?

It's quite possible they won't spend an additional $10 million to make some fans happy. It's quite likely that they don't see that as material or relevant.

How long have you been a Phillies fan? Most of us who have followed the Phillies for a long time root for the Phillies because we root for the Philles - not because the Phillies have met our "expectations" or acceded to our demands for spending on players. Most of us will not abandon the Phillies because they may not meet our expectations - if we were going to do that, we'd have abandoned the Phillies decades ago.

[bkeich]

I am still amazed that they wont spend another $10 million to get a couple of solid right handed relievers in order to help protect their $200 million dollar investment.

I am not sure this is exactly what is happening. They have reached a milestone, and now the question is do you go over the luxury cap? That has significant ramifications, we will eventually lose international money, draft picks, etc. by going over and staying over.

My guess is that in the next few years we probably will go over, but if they do it now the penalties just keep increasing. If you are going to go over, go over big, dont just go a little over. (or at least big enough to the next threshold).

[EDmuch]

BK, don't we have a big drop in salary next year as Robertson and Arrieta come off the books? spending next year?

[EDmuch]

Julio, I have been a Phils fan for a half of century. deleted

Please keep it civil. If you feel a post is provoking you, just PM the poster. No need for us to fight here, in public. Thanks! --pc, mod

[Philsmania]

Phillies announced their non-roster invitees on Facebook today.

Philadelphia Phillies

[andyb]

Looks like we got about $1 million of additional room under the luxury tax threshold with the cumulative arbitration signings. Latest Cot's worksheet has us $5.888 million under and it was a little over $4.8 million last time. This includes Realmuto at $11.2 million and Neris at $4.725 million (revised midpoints).

MLB Philadelphia 20

We probably have room for a $3 million dollar reliever, leaving a little extra room for minor league promotions or Gosselin-types.

[gmwannabe]

i'm ok with that list. Can the Mick keep making forward progress? i think Dohy has a shot. Good for Maton. Really an under the radar player, but has a shot also. And i'm anxious to see how The "Big Piece #2 looks.
gm

[flyers19rw]

Surprised to see that Connor Seabold was not invited. He had a good season last year capped off by nice showing in the AFL. He'll be 24 years of age this month so he's ripe for the show.