2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[andyb]

AF will love this Athletic article about the Phillies internal bullpen options:

As Phillies look inward to bolster bullpen in 2020, grouping...

I point to this sentence at the beginning though: "Last season, the Phillies received 251 2/3 innings of a 5.33 ERA from pitchers who were in the organization on Opening Day but not on the initial 25-man roster."

I have more confidence in getting good innings from Velasquez or Pivetta, though those 2 pitchers might be needed and better used in the starting rotation. De Los Santos is an interesting case. Why they have not converted him to the bullpen yet seems a mystery. He does not have a starter's depth of 4 pitches and has a short arm motion that seems more conducive to short outings than longer outings (either holding his velocity deep in games or just getting hurt).

The issue is that we seem to be counting on another 250 innings from these pitchers again, if not more. Most of those innings will be in the bullpen and the front of the bullpen is currently very thin, counting on several pitchers to return from injury. We have amassed some harder throwers in the offseason, though they are generally hard throwers that have not had much success in the majors or upper minors. Depth is a big concern. Quality is also a concern as we really need another arm or two suitable for closing or setup situations.

[Austinfan]

Phillies and Flyers were in similar situations, Phillies had a bunch of young arms last year that probably needed a year in AAA, but the string of injuries to veterans forced their usage, Flyers have a bunch of second tier prospects being rushed due to injuries this year.

[zambonir]

I point to this sentence at the beginning though: "Last season, the Phillies received 251 2/3 innings of a 5.33 ERA from pitchers who were in the organization on Opening Day but not on the initial 25-man roster."
The issue is that we seem to be counting on another 250 innings from these pitchers again, if not more.

Yeah, but look at the actual list (which you obviously have). Of the 10 pitchers on it three are gone (Eickhoff, Rios, Anderson). One is Arano (who is obviously a concern but not a fungible). Suarez is promising and still just the third-string lefty. I'm not sure Davis is still on the 40 come spring. Irvin probably goes back to starting in AAA. And whatever they are doing with him De Los Santos isn't being counted on either. That just leaves Garcia and Hammer who are still towards the bottom of the pen (certainly Hammer won't be starting in the big leagues).

As much as I would like to see one theoretically more reliable arm, those 250 innings (plus the ones we got form the July waiver guys) were still the product of an epic bout of injuries. Unless and until the bodies start dropping again they won't pitch, there isn't actually that much roster space, and what's available to the Phillies at this point won't necessarily be clear upgrades.

Neris
Dominguez
Morgan
Arano
Pivetta (or Velasquez)
Alvarez
Suarez

That probably leaves one spot for Stock or Kelly and one spot for guys with options. And I do think there will still be others in the mix (from minor league deals or waiver claims).

I think it comes down to Velasquez or Pivetta at this point. If you're not sure the guy who doesn't win the starting job can at least be a solid 7th inning reliever you should trade him. Either straight-up for a reliever or for a couple of lottery tickets that alllow you to do a separate deal (while also freeing up $3-4 million) for a reliever.

[andyb]

The point was more that whoever does not make our initial 8-man bullpen this year who is currently in the minors with the Phillies is probably not any better than the Garcia, Arano, and Rios types from last year. I have no confidence a Connor Brogdon is any better than Edgar Garcia.

What I am looking for is pitchers that can be both durable and effective. Ideally with strikeout stuff because our defense is still mediocre. That is where I fall on the real improvement would have to come from a Pivetta or Velasquez or De Los Santos. Starters with good stuff that plays better out of the bullpen. JoJo Romero is also intriguing in that category because he seems to waver between 92-93 some outings and 95-96 in others.

The Phillies actually made the best of last year with the bargain basement acquisitions. We were 16th in bullpen ERA and 21st in OPS against and K rate. I had the feeling that it could have been worse so guys like Hughes and Parker played a role by simply being mediocre instead of awful. If last year's team had been closer to the playoffs there probably would have been a bigger implosion because we would have pushed Neris and others even harder, but you probably have to give Kapler some credit for making the best of it.

If we get off to a good start I bet it is likely on the strength of the starting rotation and offensive improvements. The bullpen will be a big question at the deadline because it is more likely to be bad than good.

[zambonir]

I still wouldn't put Arano in that sentence. And I'm hopeful Garcia can still develop into the next Arano or Neris. Hammer seemed promising too, though he imploded. Both of them weren't ready.

It's not that different from position players really. You can only have so many starting-caliber guys. Last year the Phillies had big $ devoted to four of their top six relievers (on Opening Day). This year they are gambling that three injured guys and a converted starter can be among that top six, along with Alvarez. Given the financial corner they have backed themselves in they likely would have had to shed one of Alvarez, Morgan or Velasquez to sign Hudson or Harris, not simply sign someone who pushed everyone down.

No question the bullpen is the weakest of the three planks to start. Though I also think when the bullpen ends up being your biggest weakness it reallly means the other two things were also weak. We lost some frustrating late-inning games last year that could have also been solved by the bats (and won a few as well of course).

[zambonir]

Jim Salisbury on Twitter

They also settled with VV, Eflin, Morgan and Alvarez. Not Neris.

[nycphils]

You all ignored the money quote about the organization on this score from The Athletic - I agree that the pen is the weakest of the three team pillars, but there is some reason to think they can manage with this approach:

There is some evidence to suggest the Phillies can do it internally. Over the last two seasons, they’ve had three rookie relievers pitch at least 40 innings with a 140 ERA+ (an ERA 40 percent better than league average). Víctor Arano and Domínguez did it in 2018, and Suárez did it in 2019. The rest of baseball, all teams combined, produced six such rookie reliever seasons from 2018-19.

[andyb]

That seems one of those small sample size stats that is absolutely meaningless. Dominguez did have dominant stuff and I see no new relievers close to him. I'd argue Arano and Suarez were as much about luck than anything else. They also were relievers who relied as much on command, so they had some older reliever skills when they came up.

I am not saying that the Phillies won't get some good performances from rookies in their system. They probably will. There is just nothing to suggest their young bullpen candidates are better than those of other teams and we also know most young relievers are likely to struggle some (the other side of that small sample stat). We are starting from potentially a position of weakness if we don't add any more substantial arms to the bullpen. Starting from a weak base and then counting on plus performances from an average group of prospects is a recipe for failure or for overpaying to get some arms at the deadline.

[Austinfan]

SD's dominant stuff only worked when his slider worked, ML hitters can tee off 97 MPH FBs these days, Neris' 95 MPH FB looks like a softball when his splitter isn't working.

So the key on young RPs isn't velocity once they touch or exceed 95 MPH, but whether they have one plus secondary pitch to set up their FB. DLS is a good example, as a RP he'll probably throw 95-97, but without a credible slider, he's dog meat. Brogdon only touches 95, but has a solid slider and developing changeup, so he's probably a better bet right now.

[EDmuch]

The way they have handled this off-season has, at least for me, removed all my enthusiasm for the upcoming season. Definitely will not be buying any Phils gear for 2020.

[allentown]

I'm not that pessimistic. I think the team has a good shot to reach the post-season. That does not mean that I'm thrilled with the way the baseball side of management works. I suspect that the SP will put the bullpen in a better position to succeed than they did last season.

[EDmuch]

Well hopefully I am wrong. I am not advocating that anyone else adopt my pessimism.

[Austinfan]

It comes down to developing the young pitchers they have, like it always does.
They've got too much money tied up in pitchers to buy anymore.

Nola $10M
Arrieta $25M
Wheeler $23M (basically replacing Neshek, Hunter and Nicasio on the payroll - $26M)
Robertson $11M + $2M buyout

At some point you have to get some cheap WAR from your young pitching.

[andyb]

Dominguez was dominant when he was throwing 98-100. Less so at 95-96. It was not really how good his slider was. His slider was more effective when he had the velocity to offset it. Seranthony probably could not handle the workload on his newly found velocity (a question with Howard too). The Phillies also abused him with repeat multi-inning outings or back to back outings when he could not handle it. We all knew it at the time. Kapler probably knew it. But he did it because it worked.

That is the one piece of our new manager's history that is encouraging. He historically sees the long term consequences of pitcher usage. One can only hope that continues.

[zambonir]

To me the most interesting assertion in the article is that Bohm and Howard could be fast-tracked, i.e. sometime in May rather than the mid-point or the all-star break. I am still skeptical they'll be ready but it does make it more clear why they wouldn't sign another bat or SP if so. Of course calling them up by June 1 also gives them six weeks to see if they're the answer.

Of course the article also says that Howard could end up in the bullpen this year, given he'd be on an innings limit anyway.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

The way they have handled this off-season has, at least for me, removed all my enthusiasm for the upcoming season.

Last season enthusiasm was sky high with the signing of Harper and a great start (for one week) to the season. I agree that the enthusiasm level is way down this year. But I am hopeful that the addition of Girardi & Co. inject some hope into this season - I am looking forward to some of our players having much better seasons than last year with the new regime in place

[schillingfan]

Dominguez was dominant when he was throwing 98-100. Less so at 95-96. It was not really how good his slider was. His slider was more effective when he had the velocity to offset it. Seranthony probably could not handle the workload on his newly found velocity (a question with Howard too). The Phillies also abused him with repeat multi-inning outings or back to back outings when he could not handle it. We all knew it at the time. Kapler probably knew it. But he did it because it worked.

That is the one piece of our new manager's history that is encouraging. He historically sees the long term consequences of pitcher usage. One can only hope that continues.

Based on that overuse of a young pitcher, I predicted at the beginning of this year that Seranthony would be hurt and ineffective. Given the way relievers ebb and flow, I expect him to be good that year allowing the the muscle tears to heal and the arm to rest last year.

[zambonir]

That may be true of the muscle tears. It might not be true of the elbow ligaments. We shall see.

Most bullpen management/abuse comes down to not having better options.

[Lucky_Beagle]

thanks Julio for the information...I agree it might not mean much in the long term but it is interesting to see

[julio]

thanks Julio for the information...I agree it might not mean much in the long term but it is interesting to see

Wrong thread, I'm guessing - but regardless, my pleasure!