2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[flyers19rw]

We’ve seen so many Phillies prospects fail that we now have low expectations for all of them. I don’t think that Eflin is a bust. He’s shown flashes of being able to do the job. Young messed with him too much last season. When left to his own devices Eflin threw some good games the last third of the season. Now with Price here, he should be fine.
Arietta isn’t front end of the rotation material any more but he should be a solid three. Bone chip surgery isn’t TJ. He should be ok.
As for Bohm, there isn’t much that indicates that he can’t play. The bat is there as he’s shown with his play in the minors and AFL. The glove should be adequate, especially with a good defensive SS playing next to him. He may not break camp with the Phillies but by Memorial Day he should be in town.

[EDmuch]

I think we have solidly improved our position vis a vis the Marlins.

[zambonir]

Heh. That would be a funny bet. We finished 24 games ahead of them last year (probably should have been 30!). Will it be a smaller gap?

I still like our team better than the Mets though.

[Philsmania]

What can go right in an absolute best case scenario:

• Harper has another season like he had last season and stays healthy (something he didn't always do with the Nats)
• Hoskins rebounds
• Nola pitches like Nola (and gets more run support) while Wheeler pitches like he did in 2019
• Arrieta, healthy for the first time as a Phillie, solidifies the middle of the rotation
• Efflin also helps to do likewise
• One of Pivetta, Velasquez or Smyly is a capable fifth starter
• Neris whose stats are not all that different from Will Smith's has an all-star worthy season like Smith did in 2019 (though an argument can be made that Smith was an All-Star because someone from the Giants had to be picked)
• The other righthand arms--including either Pivetta or Velazquez or both--in the bullpen prove to be capable in that role
• The lefthand arms in the bullpen (Morgan, Alvarez and Suarez) are healthy and effective
• Segura has at least one more good season
• Realmuto and Gregorious are Realmuto and Gregorious
• Centerfield does not turn out to be an offensive black hole

[Philsmania]

Strangely, the Phillies officially announced their coaching staff today. Aside from Bobby Meacham added and Paco Figueroa and Pedro Guerrero (Kapler guys) staying, no real surprises.

BTW, does anybody else remember when ML coaching staffs were only about five guys--bench coach, pitching coach, first base coach (who usually doubled as hitting coach), third base coach (who usually doubled as fielding coach) and bullpen coach? Now we have two hitting-only coaches, an assistant pitching coach, a fielding coach, and two catching coaches/bullpen catchers and a coaching assistant.

[zambonir]

I assume they call Greg Brodzinski The Bull. (He's new - to the majors - right?)

Former Bisons skipper, Bobby Meacham, joins Phillies staff

I don't know that the Phillies are getting Smyly. He can probably land a major league deal, maybe even a guaranteed rotation spot on a bad team. I'd like to have him as a starter-or-reliever option but he may not want that either.

[allentown]

I think that success this season will also depend upon guys coming up from the farm, some joining the team in April others in June/July and adding WAR. Howard and Bohm are the obvious suspects, but other pitchers can help in the pen and as fill-in #5 starters. Frankly, and possibly unrealistically, I am looking to the manager/coaching changes to add a couple wins.

[LoneStarPhan]

Pretty much every season, there is a team or two that greatly exceed expectations. The Twins last season were such a team. I always hope the Phillies will take that giant leap each and every season.

Of course, there usually are a few teams each season, that fall flat and fail to come close to expectations.

[tom81]

What can go right in an absolute best case scenario:

Harper has another season like he had last season and stays healthy (something he didn't always do with the Nats)

I think you are somewhat pessimistic in your best case scenario. Harper put up a 4.2 bWAR last year, why isn’t best case a 10 bWAR mvp year like his 2015?

Why isn’t best case CF a 4 War performance from Herrera like 2015/2016 or from a “healthy” Roman Quinn?

Why not a breakout year from someone like Kingery, Eflin, etc?

Likely occurrence, no. Best case however, one or several things go spectacularly and we really enjoy 2020.

[zambonir]

Sure, the "absolute best case" - rather than a realistic best case - is Harper MVP, Nola Cy Young, and Cutch and Gregorius and Hoskins join JT on the all-star team.

4.0 WAR from CF a bit less likely (maybe combined).

One thing's for sure, they seem to be pretty serious about going with the bullpen that they've got, at least in terms of free agents.

[Austinfan]

Given their experience with FA RPs, why not stick with the young pitchers?
I mean Neshak, Hunter, Robertson, et al, outside of Alvarez have we got anything of value?

[zambonir]

Ever, or in the past two years?

Neshek was good the first time. Hunter was actually good in Year 1. Even Nicasio, while overpaid, wound up eating a lot of innings in a way that Ramos and the AAA/waiver wire brigade could not.

I think the issue is less veterans/ money vs. not, as the fact that our most important returning relievers all have injury questions, in addition to having shorter track records. Would signing Daniel Hudson or Will Harris fix that? Maybe not. But I don't think that is being done for philosophical reasons (and if it is, that's an overreaction to last year). It's being done because they can't afford it.

I think it's pretty reasonable to want one more arm as insurance if only one of Morgan, Arano and Rodriguez are able to deliver. Especially if Girardi prefers fixed roles. As things stand they are counting on that being Velasquez or Pivetta. And then hopefully another Alvarez or Hunter is buried in the new bunch of waiver pick-ups.

[bigegypt0417]

Per Salisbury, the phillies have signed ronald torreyes and christian bethancourt to minor league deals with a spring invite.

[andyb]

I think the Torreyes siging is new. Utility infielder without any speed or power. Most of his big league time was with the Yankees under Girardi though. Assume he is a backup plan to Josh Harrison though more capable of filling in at shortstop.

[bkeich]

I still really hope that the plan for Harrison is as a backup utility player in AAA. He can’t hit ML pitching and is nothing special in the field.

[zambonir]

It might not be him, but I wouldn't expect anyone better than Harrison. All these guys including Miller are pretty much interchangeable (except for handedness) and you never know who might actually take to a PH role or one start a week with a platoon advantage. And we don't have any cheap young players to do it (except Williams, who already failed and does all the same things as Bruce) so it will be a cheap old player.

Brock Holt's still out there and so is Miller but with the CBT situation even committing another $2 million seems unlikely, barring any trades.

[zambonir]

Dodgers sign Jimmy Nelson. This would be the kind of deal you might give Smyly or someone similar, but the Phillies can't really afford those incentives (unless they figure that if the guy works out, the team is doing well and will be headed over the tax anyway).

Dodgers Sign Jimmy Nelson

The Dodgers have reached a one-year deal with righty Jimmy Nelson, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The contract includes a $1.25MM guarantee and the possibility of greater earning...Nelson will reportedly be promised just $750K this year. But he’ll earn $1MM in incentives if he makes the Opening Day roster and $500K apiece if he remains on it for 45 and 90 days. Further incentives could also add $1.5MM to Nelson’s 2020 earnings.

So that maxes out at $4.25 million plus a $500K buyout

[andyb]

So that maxes out at $4.25 million plus a $500K buyout

With an estimated $4.8 million of spending room (according to Cot's with Realmuto at $11 million), would we want to get into many contracts where incentives would push us over the luxury tax threshold?

That was why I was focusing more on inexpensive relievers that have more cost certainty. Someone like Kintzler for $2-$3 million. Our signing of multiple utility guys suggests we are not going to spend there other than maybe Miller. With starters we do have options already with VV and Pivetta and even Irvin. The bullpen is likely a larger hole to fill with more uncertainty at the moment.

Those incentive-based contracts are generally good models, but we have so little room to spare at the moment I wonder if they are not an ideal fit this season.

[zambonir]

Agreed. I just think people are still expecting a few minor league/ST invite types (be they starting pitchers or bench options) and it seems pretty clear they don't have the money. Not even for Miller or a reliever. You have to leave wiggle room for DL and call-ups too. Just rotating in a couple of AAA relievers in May would add $8-900,000 if they are replacing injured guys. Nick Williams probably starts the year making AAA money but as soon as Quinn gets hurt he's back to $550,000 (or someone else like Gosselin is). And Harrison probably gets seven figures if he makes the 26. Right now he counts zero.

Still time to be proven wrong but it seems like they are pretty committed to the injured trio (Morgan, Arano, Seranthony), and to the loser of the starter derby being an important bullpen piece, with 1-2 guys rising out of the off-season waiver claims and returning AAA depth. They certainly don't lack for bodies.

[andyb]

And of that injured trio I feel pretty good about Morgan being back. Not so good odds-wise about getting full seasons from Dominguez or Arano though.