2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[David_Criss]

The 2020 outfield is McCutchen - Herrera/Haseley - Harper
Bruce, Quinn and Williams are all still there. Bruce at 2 million vs. Dickerson at 9 million.....

[zambonir]

There's not gonna be a Herrera. If he actually did make the team they'd have to waive Quinn or option Haseley too (or trade Bruce). Williams still begins the year in AAA to (if everyone is healthy).

But yes, for 7 million less than Dickerson you get a guy who actually shouldn't play in the field, in Bruce. But even w/o Bruce, Dickerson would still be a 4th OF and that wasn't gonna work for either side.

[tom81]

they'd have to waive Quinn

I don’t agree, I think Quinn actually has some trade value if they want to go down this route. Sure he has his injury history but he makes the league minimum, is controllable for years and has a lot of upside.

[andyb]

But yes, for 7 million less than Dickerson you get a guy who actually shouldn't play in the field, in Bruce.

Though he does grade out as pretty neutral in LF. SSS of course, but he seems stretched more in RF. He also grades poorly at 1B though that could be experience.

Agree that Herrera is gone. Probably starts at AAA though and who knows what happens by June. At least he is major league insurance.

[zambonir]

True, true, I wasn't even thinking about his trade value, just the fact that he can't be optioned. Whereas Herrera can be! Point is they won't lose Quinn as an asset (his value would still be limited) just because they are stuck with Herrera.

Weird to think they might keep Williams too but I guess he is one Bruce (or Harper) injury away from getting a last look.

[allentown]

I don't understand the crying over 'losing' Dickerson. We have no real need for Dickerson and we have very little budget $ left. What we need is more pitching -- a #5 starter and relievers. I'm happy with Eflin as our #4 starter, but we are thin in starting pitcher candidates for the #5 and injury replacement guy, until Howard is ready. The guys we have ready as SPs after the top 4 have yet to impress. If Arrietta isn't ready to pitch well in April, then our SP will be a real liability. Velasquez/Pivetta/Irvin/Delossantos/Romero have given us no reason to believe they are satisfactory MLB SP. Perhaps better/different coaching will make a difference? It would be nice to add a decent LHSP.

[zambonir]

I think if you think Eflin is a #4 I don't care who the #5 is, the internal options or guys on minor league deals (to come) are fine.

But I think Eflin is a #5 and I want a #4. Especially if Arrieta isn't really a Top 3 starter either.

I do believe the Phillies are just trying to wait out the next wave of the market, see if they can squeeze a few guys into minor league deals, or maybe get someone who might have been a $6 million reliever for half that.

To me there's no reason to think Velasquez will ever change - we've seen what he is for a long time now, even if it still tantalizes. I'd still like to think Pivetta can get back to what he was in 2018 - and improve on it. .The question is can a team with big ambitions in a very competitive division afford to ride out ups and downs for a couple of months. If Arrieta and Eflin are both 2-3 WAR pitchers, yes. If not, no.

[flyers19rw]

Connor Seabold might jump past guys like Pivetta, Irvin, and VV. He had a good ‘19 season and impressed in the AFL. He’s 23 and to the point where he should be able to step up and contribute in ‘20. No doubt that Howard is ahead of him but Seabold might come along by August.

[allentown]

I don't disagree with any of that. I think Howard probably ready toward end of June. If Seabold ready by 1 August, that likely eliminates need for a deadline deal, but we still need a 5th SP for April, May, and half (or more) of June. You seem to have no more confidence in the other SP candidates than I do. There is also a reasonable chance (just the way MLB SP goes these days) that Howard and/or Seabold will come to Phily as injury replacements when they come up. I think it realistically take 7 significant SPs to get through a fairly normal MLB season. It really would be nice (and prudent) to start the season with a 5th decent SP. Even before the injuries last season, we didn't have that. Didn't even have 4. The injury replacements were bad.

[Austinfan]

Seabold might leapfrog Howard, because they won't worry as much about rushing him, if he burns out, he joints a bunch of other young arms in LHV who'll contend for a 2nd shot at the #5 slot.

Howard they'll tend to baby b/c of his upside.

[andyb]

Seabold is less accomplished than Eflin, Velazquez, Irvin and Pivetta were in the minors. He has yet to play AAA and will be 24 this season. His stuff is pedestrian (though with good command). There really is not much in his record to suggest he is any more than a 5th starter type. He is nice depth, but really should not be counted on for any more than that. Frankly someone like Irvin is much more likely to make an impact in the rotation than Seabold.

[bkeich]

I don't disagree with any of that. I think Howard probably ready toward end of June. If Seabold ready by 1 August, that likely eliminates need for a deadline deal, but we still need a 5th SP for April, May, and half (or more) of June. You seem to have no more confidence in the other SP candidates than I do.

Well, we will need another SP even if both of these guys are successful. You dont need 5 starting pitchers, you need about 7 if things go well. By the trade deadline we can reasonably assume that at least 1 of Nola, Wheeler, Arrieta and Eflin will be done for the year. We dont have anyone in our franchise currently that should be taking the ball as the 5th starter in April, May or June. VV and Pivetta should be in the bullpen, VV probably permanently (where I suspect he will succeed).

IT is a shame in a way, one of VV's funnest abilities is he is a pretty good hitter and has very good speed. I really wouldnt mind them using him as a 6th OF, frankly he might be our best defensive LF from what we saw (with training of course). He certainly has a strong and accurate arm.

[Austinfan]

I have always thought that one of your back of the pen guys should be chosen for his ability to pinch hit and play in the field, because it makes it much easier to build a bench - even with 5 slots instead of 4, it's still tough to build a good bench. A pitcher who can help has a lot of value in the NL.

As far as pitching depth, you can't afford to carry a legitimate top 5 starter in the pen as a long relief "break glass" kind of guy. And while you can stash injury rehab guys in AAA, usually they have an out clause in their contracts that kicks in by July - and no guarantee they bounce back.

Phillies will have enough young SPs at LHV to provide depth, the key is a good pitching coach who can help them progress. So often, the difference between an AAAA starter and a 4th/5th guy is simply a tweak by a good pitching coach, whether smoothing their mechanics to add 1-2 MPH to their FB or helping them master a secondary pitch from below to above average. The new ML PC seems to love the changeup, which I think is the key pitch in this day and age, because it makes even an average FB harder to hit (by throwing the hitter's timing off).

The key to good coaching isn't to perform miracles, but to make numerous incremental improvements up and down the roster to maximize the production of the talent on hand.

[zambonir]

Top 10 Remaining Free Agents

Still available: Hudson, Cishek, Stammen. Market still hasn't come down (judging by what Betances and Harris got).

Brock Holt also out there. Still think trading Segura would be the best thing for this team but A) there probably aren't takers and B) there's no longer any starting pitching left worth using the $ on (unless that was also via trade).

Seems like there's a good chance they'll bust the tax in July if it is called for, but they may well be done now - the room that's left is probably needed for the 2-3 players that are on minor league deals. Or if the likes of Miller or Smyly were to still come back on guaranteed deals. Maybe a $4 million reliever.

[tom81]

There was is still room to take on salary via the trade route. We could look to trade Valesquez and his two years of team control for a better starter with only one year left of control and a higher salary. We could then go the QA route to retain the guy the following year when contracts come off the book. There are lots of ways to take on salary to improve via trade.

[zambonir]

Not sure I see anyone who fits that scenario. A "better" starter with only one year of control would probably still require some more talent coming back (since he's not a long-term salary dump), and even a lesser one might make too much money (J.A. Happ, for instance, though maybe the Yankees would pick some of it up). And then the bullpen still hasn't been addressed.

We'll see, could still be a few surprises but it is pretty limited in terms of the $ they can shed and take on.

[fish]

I don’t really know if there is a more appropriate thread to put this under- but in reading Phoul Ballz interview with Matt Vierling, he name dropped having working this winter with Phillies minor league hitting coach Bobby Wernes, who I’d never heard of.

I don’t know who he was working with (GCL I’d guess), but this is a guy who was 24 last year, a former 30th round pick of the Astros and Arkansas Razorback. He was released after 2 years with the Astros and picked up by the Cardinals before playing his last year in 2018.

Interesting guy- Josh Bonifay hire I guess? Hit well as a freshman, awful as sophomore and jr, then 2 good years in the minors and 2 awful.

[Austinfan]

I don't see the point of spending $10M for a 5th starter type who'll give you 25 or so 4.50+ ERA 5 inning starts.
Might as well just go with a combination of your young pitchers and a couple ST invites coming off injury or attempting comebacks.

[xogfog]

I think the Phillies missed out on two players that signed for 14mil total that would have helped this team in Porcello and Shaw. The pressure now for Eflin to have a good year and Bohm to have an impact this year is higher now. I'm really disappointed that they were not willing to spend into the luxury tax this season, especially after we heard that they initially were not opposed to doing.

They still need another starter, I have no faith in a back end of Arrieta, Eflin and Velasquez/Pivetta. I think they need a stronger 3 and bump Arrieta and Eflin to 4 and 5.

If they would be willing to to go over the luxury tax, I would trade for Betts and Price and try to win this year, let Betts and Arrieta walk in 2021 and get back under the tax threshold

[zambonir]

There was a time when Arrieta himself - and Keuchel, and Curt Schilling - were doubtful/unimpressive members of a competitive rotation. Can that still be Pivetta or VV? Unlikely but possible. I do think they can get by with a patchwork of #5 starters for a few months, if the the offense is okay (and if it isn't, that's probably a bigger problem). But you're right, if Arrieta isn't really a #4 and Eflin really isn't a #4 then you've got too many 5th starters.