2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[fish]

He was terrible last year and not at the point where he’s more likely than not to bounce back.

I think there is a pretty good probability he will bounce back offensively- between hamstring and ankle injuries clearly took a toll on him last year.

[Patchmk88]

Phils offered Hamels a one-year contract worth about half [of the Braves $18m]

How insulting to one of our beloved old players. If we would have offered 15M I bet he would have chose us over the Braves.

[EDmuch]

I tend to agree they should have offered Hamels something like $15 million. I think he would have taken it from us over the $18 million the Braves offered. But $9 million ??? I understand why Hamels passed.

[Austinfan]

They can start the season with Velasquez as the 5th starter, and skip him at times the first couple months.
Arrieta should be much better this year, bone spurs aren't TJ surgery, and he's in a contract year, playing for his last deal.
While the Lehigh pitchers were disappointing last year, they'll have good depth to start the year with Howard, Jones, Seabold, DLS, and a bunch of bullpen candidates like Brogdon.

The Phillies need to develop some young pitchers to provide depth at the back of the rotation and in the bullpen.
They're pretty much tapped out in free agency with the Wheeler signing, and they want to extend Realmuto.
Hopefully, they've improved their minor league coaching, because while one can't expect miracles, it would be nice to develop #4/#5 starters and some middle relievers, and not have to pay $5-10M a piece to fill out a roster.

[flyers19rw]

Hamels will be 36 later this month and has seen his stats slide since he left here. God love him for what he did here in the past but a nine million dollar offer was probably a fair one at this time. He got a bigger deal from the Braves which is good for him.
The media loves Cole and is loathe to be critical of him. However the numbers on the field don’t lie- he’s slipping. His FB has lost velocity and he’s relying more on a cutter that sometimes doesn’t cut and a change up that batters are waiting for and hitting hard.
The biggest problem for Hamels is thirty-six. Pitchers don’t improve at that age and, more frequently, break down. In a way, I’m sort of glad that he signed with Atlanta so we don’t have to see him hit the end of the line. It was hard enough to watch Doc and Lee come to that point.

[Taudawg]

The Phillies owe Jay Bruce about 2 mil for 2020, but I believe his full contract salary (15mil-ish) counts for luxury tax purposes. Unless I am missing something, can't they offer to pay the 2 mil and trade him to clear the rest of his salary for additional spending space? I can think of a few teams that could use a free year of Jay Bruce in 2020.

[julio]

The Phillies owe Jay Bruce about 2 mil for 2020, but I believe his full contract salary (15mil-ish) counts for luxury tax purposes. Unless I am missing something, can't they offer to pay the 2 mil and trade him to clear the rest of his salary for additional spending space? I can think of a few teams that could use a free year of Jay Bruce in 2020.

No. Bruce's total salary in 2020 is $14 million ($13 million base plus $1 million pro-rated signing bonus). But the Phils are on the hook for only $1.75 million of that; Seattle's on the hook for $12.25 million - and that $12.25 million counts against Seattle's luxury tax payroll, not against the Phillies, per the CBA, Article XXIII(C)(2)(b)(iii). (Had to look it up to be sure! )

[Taudawg]

Is there any site that has a reliable payroll tracker? This one from BP/Cots doesn't seem to take that into account - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OhaLeCpeOyJOkBZqOFCC__afbPLtIJL85BuIwVfOZ-s/edit#gid=1520401900

Thanks!

[mdougherty12]

Is there any site that has a reliable payroll tracker? This one from BP/Cots doesn't seem to take that into account - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OhaLeCpeOyJOkBZqOFCC__afbPLtIJL85BuIwVfOZ-s/edit#gid=1520401900

Thanks!

If you scroll to the right on the Cot's spreadsheet, you'll see the CBT estimates.

[tom81]

They can start the season with Velasquez as the 5th starter, and skip him at times the first couple months.
Arrieta should be much better this year, bone spurs aren't TJ surgery, and he's in a contract year, playing for his last deal.

This, with the caveat that it is an open competition for the 5th spot and someone like Pivetta can win it. I’m also ok with the internal options in CF. We do need To acquire another IF or two in free agency or trade. Also a bullpen arm or two.

[BostonRoss]

All I can tell you is there were 26 shortstops last year that had at least 350 ABs (according to ESPN stats) and Jean Segura was 19th with a 1.3 WAR; 20th is JP Crawford with 0.9 WAR, and 17th is Freddy Galvis at 1.6 WAR.

Gregorius at 0.6 WAR in half a season.

[zambonir]

I don't mind that the Phillies didn't offer Hamels more money just out of respect and sentiment. They knew they were going to sign a $20 million pitcher on top of Hamels, the Braves probably aren't.

How 'bout getting Teheran in a Phillies uniform, btw?

[nycphils]

Gregorius at 0.6 WAR in half a season.

I don’t think Didi is a fabulous idea, personally, I just think it’s going to happen like it or not. If it does, I see no purpose in moving Segura to a different starting position where many cheaper options exist only to be mediocre there. I’d rather get salary relief and utilize a cheap platoon (plus Kingery for late inning defense on occasion) so more money can be put toward something else. That’s my only point on Segura.

[zambonir]

It's funny, before Segura came around, getting Gregorius last year - since the Yankees were obviously going to sign Manny - was also something we discussed.

Clearly they want Segura away from SS, and they think Gregorius has a better chance of returning to his 2017-2018 form than Segura does (and he was a better offensive player than Segura in those years, though their WAR was about the same. Segura's career-best WAR came at 2B - and 26 years old - for Arizona). Then there is the Girardi factor.

If they are banking on Bohm it makes more sense to me to shed Segura now rather than later (hard to trade that much money at the deadline), especially if it upgrades the pitching and bench. But I guess let's see if they really get Gregorius first.

[Taudawg]

I would prefer they sign a excellent fielding SS on the cheap (like Jose Iglesias), slide Segura to 2b, and let Kingery man 3b until Bohm is ready. 3b might actually Kingery's best position based on small sample stats there. More pitching should be the priority.

[LoneStarPhan]

Looking at the Cot's spreadsheet, I see Bruce with a $13,000,000 CBT value listed to the far right for the 2020 season, but at the very bottom of the spreadsheet, in red, they list Paid by Seattle 6/2 trade, a value of $11,625,000 as a credit (in parentheses and in red) for 2020.

With the Wheeler signing, the Phillies are now only a little over $18 million under the tax cap.

[andyb]

I doubt they would do it, especially with the Herrera situation, but the way to save money might be to consider Addison Russell. One rumor was him going to the Orioles on a $1 million make-good type of deal.

Far more likely that they just get Gregorius and then have to make a decision as to whether they want to add another pitcher like Keuchel and exceed the luxury tax line. If not, then they will have like $5 million to fill out the roster, so even if they get small savings elsewhere they really can't being in anyone new that makes more than $2 or $3 million (that is the welcome back Drew Smyly price).

BTW on that non-tender list, I'd see if Danny Hultzen wants to come in on a minor league contract with some big league roster incentives. He resurrected himself as a LOOGY with a high K rate last season. We could use one of those:

Danny Hultzen Fall & Minor Leagues Statistics & History |...

[zambonir]

Do we really need a LOOGY (especially if there isn't going to be those anymore)? We have 8 lefties on the 40-man, all possible relievers. Morgan, Alvarez, Suarez, hope one of the other new arms pans out, Irvin as long man/spot starter.

I mean, I do think we need a reliever. Never mind the injured guys we're counting on, seems like they might also really be counting on one of Pivetta and VV to replace Hunter or Neshek.

[andyb]

I get that we have some volume. We just don't have a whole lot of swing and miss from the left side. We actually might have that from the right side, especially if VV or Pivetta become some 98 mph monster with a simpler 1-2 inning mandate. I also assume Sanchez and Cleavinger are nowhere near ready and Romero will start in the AAA rotation. I am also suggesting a minor league deal. If it does not work out, then no harm.

[zambonir]

True true. Plus they are all expendable (especially Austin Davis IMO). But I thought all the reliever guys we picked up this off-season so far had stuff.