2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[el-pietro]

I don't despise the Braves to the same extent as you Patchmk, likely because I wasn't around when they were good during the 90s but I definitely don't like them, and the idea of Cole with a division rival really stings.

I think 18m is probably a bit rich, but on a one year deal its certainly palatable. Getting Wheeler offsets this loss somewhat, as we get to steal another division rivals pitcher who while certainly less beloved in Queens than Hamels is in Philly, hes likely a better player over the next few years.

[andyb]

There is a logic now to looking at Keuchel. Price should be something like 2/30 or 3/40 and they really need a LHP in their rotation. Now Keuchel plus Gregorius would put them over the cap, but they probably are resigned to doing that. And then next year not signing any QO free agents because the mission will be to get under the cap next year.

[andyb]

And Girardi definitely likes Didi:

Didi Gregorius-Joe Girardi free-agency flirtation goes to next level

[Philsmania]

I don't despise the Braves to the same extent as you Patchmk, likely because I wasn't around when they were good during the 90s but I definitely don't like them, and the idea of Cole with a division rival really stings.

I don't like it either but, considering the alternative, Hamels to the Mets would have been too much to bear.

[EDmuch]

Well Madbum or Keuchel.

[Philsmania]

My concern with Kuechel is that he was kind of on a downward spiral since his Cy Young season (not dramatic, but still downward) which depressed his market last winter and that the Braves managed to profit from what will turn out to be his last good season.

[zambonir]

Speaking of RAJ's awful messing up of a necessary rebuild, Zach Wheeler is a prime example of how to get top value for your soon-to-be FAs. At age 34, 1/3 of a year of Carlos Beltran netted Wheeler. Yes the Mets sent money on the deal.

Plus we got the wrong guy that season! (Beltran was much better than Pence though the Giants didn't even make the playoffs. Pence's value was being controllable but we got nothing from that.)

[nycphils]

I would guess that the next dominos to fall are Didi and one 4/5th starter type - maybe Didi somewhere in the 3/$30-45m range, and someone like Michael Pineda or Tanner Roark for the starter. That would basically tap us out on money - with any luck we trade Segura for salary relief and get a good 2nd base/IF platoon (Miller and Wilmer Flores is my favorite for the moment). That would provide by way of example:

McCutcheon
Kingery
Harper
Hoskins
JTR
Haseley
Miller/Flores
Didi

Nola, Wheeler, Arrietta, Pineda/Roark, Eflin

Neris, VV, Pivetta, Suarez, Morgan, Stock, Arano, EDLS (that’s kind of ugly, especially if Seranthony can’t post)

Quinn, Flores/Miller, Knapp, Bruce, other backup IF/OF

[Lucky_Beagle]

I liked Hamels and would have been fine with his return, however since he didn't sign with the Phillies I am not too concerned where he signed. If he went to a divisional team immediately after leaving the Phillies it would have been different to me than him now going there 10 years removed from the glorious WS.

[zambonir]

I still don't like him being in the division. If we lose the NL East by 1 game and he's 2-1 against us that won't feel good. If we sign someone better than him and win the division, great!

Pretty fast-moving market, I don't think they are close to done and that includes possible trades, as well as Strasburg/Rendon. Going over the tax seems unlikely but who knows what Middleton really wants. Seems like he'd also enjoy poaching a Nat.

[bigegypt0417]

what is the threshold for the draft penalty?

Is the available payroll based on that or the 2 million dollars?

[andyb]

There is a 12% surtax if one is $20 to $40 million over the luxury tax. So 20%+12%. At $40 million over the tax rate jumps to 42.5%

Draft penalties start at $40 million over. Then the top pick is moved back 10 spots. There are also repeat offender taxes so the 20% base rate goes up to 30% the next year.

All in all, we probably want to stay $20 million or less over. This year and next, if we can't get under the threshold. The collective bargaining pact only has 2 more years left, so who knows if there are repeat penalties in 3 years. The threshold will also probably increase substantially in 2 years since the players are clearly getting a smaller share of revenue now.

[EDmuch]

I continue to be amazed at the hate directed at Segura. He batted .280 last year, 12 home runs 10 SB's. His numbers are a bit below his past few years. but it is not like he pulled a Hoskins and let his numbers drop precipitously. he made have had just a slight off year. But the idea of dumping him and going with a Brad Miller/Wilmer Flores tandem is just nuts. Segura could be back hitting over .300 again next year. Frankly the lineup poster by NYCPhils is a 4th place team. I understand the disappointment with Franco. I can understand the desire to move on from Cesar. But I just don't get dumping Segura. he certainly did not reflect the drop in performance that Hoskins provided.

[nycphils]

All I can tell you is there were 26 shortstops last year that had at least 350 ABs (according to ESPN stats) and Jean Segura was 19th with a 1.3 WAR; 20th is JP Crawford with 0.9 WAR, and 17th is Freddy Galvis at 1.6 WAR.

It is true that the year before Segura had 4.3 WAR and in 2017 it was 3.1 WAR, so maybe it was just a down year; however, he’ll be 30 years old and is paid $14m/per. He was terrible last year and not at the point where he’s more likely than not to bounce back.

[zambonir]

He's just not a 14.5 million player, let alone for the next three years. Not great defensively, below-average offensively (90 OPS+), just 1.3 WAR. I do hope he bounces back, but the real point is not to replace him with two $1.5 million players... it's to replace him with two $1.5 million players (one of whom may be Kingery) and spend the other $11 million on something else (3B, CF, another starting pitcher). Or replace him with a $6 million player and spend the $29 million in 2021 and 2022 on something else.

Hoskins' drop-off was worse, but he's only 26 and cheap. He won't be around by the time he's due to make $14.5 million either (even if he returns to form).

I wouldn't do NYC Phils roster, but his argument is that even without Segura we don't have enough money to add an extra bat (besides someone like Flores) or a reliever, just one more veteran pitcher. Otherwise the choice might be either keeping Segura or having Velasquez in your rotation again.

[EDmuch]

I prefer Segura and VV to Wilmer Flores and Tanner Roark.

[nycphils]

A few bits from the Athletic:

...The front office is operating under a directive to remain below the $208 million threshold that triggers the luxury tax, according to multiple team sources...

This is the equation: The Phillies need an infielder, one more starting pitcher and at least three relievers. They must fill those holes while operating on a budget. One estimate of their current payroll, when calculated for luxury-tax purposes, puts them at $188 million (including projected salaries for their arbitration-eligible players). That leaves roughly $20 million to solve the equation.

...Kingery is now likelier to man a spot in the infield, while Haseley has a path to becoming the everyday center fielder...

For the bullpen, the Phillies are counting on> ...rebounds from Seranthony Domínguez, Adam Morgan and Víctor Arano, all of whom were beset by elbow injuries in 2019. They will need Héctor Neris’ splitter to stay sharp. They must hope for repeat performances from José Álvarez and Ranger Suárez.

the roadmap for the rest of the offseason involves a lot of bargain hunting and risk management.

[nycphils]

Per Zolecki:

Phils offered Hamels a one-year contract worth about half [of the Braves $18m]

If the Phillies sign Gregorius, Jean Segura, Scott Kingery and Rhys Hoskins will round out the 2020 infield. Adam Haseley is projected to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder with Andrew McCutchen in left field and Harper in right field.

[zambonir]

Geez, imagine if they'd kept Franco and Hernandez. And you've got money tied up in Herrera and Roberston. A bit disconcerting. I'm more or less okay with the position player plan but the possibility that they don't add another starting pitcher who's much better than Smyly or VV puts a lot of pressure on Arrieta.

The bullpen part isn't as big a deal, they've already stockpiled a bunch of new, if not proven, arms. Someone (hopefully more than one) will be the next Alvaraz or Arano.

It will be a test of ownership's refusal to bust the tax if they're not where they want to be in July. It can't all be on Howard and Bohm.

[jimbomill]

it is not like he pulled a Hoskins and let his numbers drop precipitously. he made have had just a slight off year. But the idea of dumping him and going with a Brad Miller/Wilmer Flores tandem is just nuts

Good points.
I do agree - keep Segura. I like Miller as a bench player, too.