2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[mdougherty12]

Jay Bruce talks hitting at Fangraphs:

Jay Bruce Talks Hitting

[allentown]

That was a really nice and informative interview. Bruce actually says something, rather than just mouthing the normal trivial responses.

[schillingfan]

Seems like understands basic Sabermetric concepts, he mentions that being a fly ball hitter influences his BABIP. He says the most important outcome is not to make an out. Sounds like he will make an excellent hitting coach when he retires.

[zambonir]

One thing about Klentak is he has yet to give out a really bad FA contract. Santana was a bit of an overpay, but they knew that, and the contract was movable. To this point AF's arguments have largely been against things that never happened. Arrieta came in cheap and short. Harper came in at much lower AAV than expected. Robertson was a modest signing compared to the last time we went big on the reliever market.

If they have a shot at Cole, given his age and his quality, the potential for an injury or steep decline on the back end really doesn't matter - plus it's also possible he'd be as productive as Greinke or Hamels until he's 35 or 26.

Beyond him, they are not going to sign any starting pitchers to ridiculous deals. For one thing the market will remain team-friendly. And the second tier of guys is pretty deep (relative to the number of buyers with money). If they don't want to wait on Cole they can strike early and get someone more affordable, or on a four-year deal. And if they do, they can get their second guy and then it's likely there will be another Arrieta or Keuchel type leftover late.

[BostonRoss]

SF won 3 WS with homegrown pitching for the most part.

The Nationals had only one homegrown starter and the bullpen was mostly guys brought in from elsewhere. Same with the Red Sox the year before.

[julio]

Todd Zolecki reports that Cole Hamels has said some very positive things about potentially returning to the Phillies:

Hamels-Phillies reunion? It could make sense

We can debate whether Hamels is a "right fit" for the Phils, but my first reaction was that, if they add another guy to pair with Nola at the top, a rotation of Nola/xxx/Hamels/Arrieta/Eflin doesn't look too shabby. Also, can you imagine the home opener at CBP in April, if that start fell to Cole Hamels?

[BostonRoss]

I guess it's too much to ask that Hamels' first start for the Phillies is just like his last one!

[zambonir]

The big news in that Cole piece is he might be willing to take a one-year deal.

Also speculation on NBCSN Philly that the Braves have MadBum at the top of their list and would get him for 4 years, 75-80 million. That roughly matches MLBTR's prediction which also had us getting Wheeler for four years, $100 million. That's not a crippling contract in any way.

[andyb]

Willing to sign a 1-year deal too. If we are going to exceed the luxury tax line this year we could then get under it next year if Arrieta and Hamels had expiring contracts and we did not want to keep them.

Obviously there is injury risk with any older pitcher and there were some signs of fatigue last year. He did come back for one September start with better velocity before they shut him down. Hamels is a good risk on a short deal even if we have to overpay (when there would be no long term consequences). We also need to add a lefty. Spotting Smyly against teams that had trouble against LHP was a pretty effective strategy with a mediocre pitcher last year.

[allentown]

Hamels has a lot going for him as the second SP we sign this winter: he will sell tickets, he is left-handed, except for too many walks his 2019 stats are quite good -especially the K-rate, a one- (or even two-) year deal works well with Phillies budget and having Howard and possibly Lindow on the way within the next 2-3 years, no loss of draft pick. He is a poor choice for the #1 SP we sign this winter. He is likely not going to be good enough to be our #2, but I really like him as a #3/4 over the next 1-2 seasons.

[zambonir]

I don't think there's any risk of Hamels being the top get. Obviously Cole/Hamels would be the best-case (and most linguistically confusing) scenario. But also Strasburg, Wheeler, Odorizzi (who has a QO so might be the bargain/leftover guy) plus Hamels.

Can't completely rule out a controllable trade target too, but doesn't seem like that's the best/most necessary approach (unless they signed Rendon).

[xogfog]

Realmuto adds a Silver Slugger award to his Gold Glove.

[Jeff05]

Presumably, Realmuto's agent is now ready to negotiate!

[EDmuch]

With the signals Hamels is sending out about how minimal his demands may be, it seems like he is almost a certainty to return here as the "second' FA pitcher. Add Wheeler, Smith and Moustakas and I think we are looking at a solid upgrade over last year's team (assuming McCutchen is ready to play).

[nycphils]

Hamels at one year at $10-12m is a no brainer.

[mdougherty12]

Dan Szymborski's 2019 Phillies post-mortem analysis at Fangraphs:

The Phillies Tread Water in First Year of Harper Era

[zambonir]

Matt "Cold Water" Klentak

Rumors: Phillies, Lindor, Cole, Strasburg, Yanks

In a radio appearance on 94 WIP in Philadelphia on Thursday, Phillies general manager Matt Klentak indicated that the team will be looking to upgrade the rotation this offseason. However, he also stressed the importance of not losing Draft picks after the team did so when it signed three players (Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Bryce Harper) who rejected the qualifying offer in the past two offseasons.

"One of the things we have to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit Draft picks, and that's hard when you're fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond," Klentak said. "But we lost our second-round pick last year and our second and third the year before. That doesn't sound like a lot, but that's where Scott Kingery comes from, that's where Spencer Howard comes from, that's where Connor Seabold comes from. That's where some good players come from."

I do think we won't have any interest in Smith. And I might hesitate on Odorizzi. But not Wheeler or the top two guys. Of course this is partly a negotiating ploy. And teams are practically colluding against some guys with QOs.

[andyb]

The Fangraphs assessment is kind of where I am. Since their chips are already on the table, the only way to maximize this current team's core is to spend money:

"And if the team has any illusions that it’s going to fix these problems and stay under the luxury tax, well, it needs to disabuse itself of the notion it can afford to cap its spending at $150 million and succeed."

They need to be smart about it. Short term deals are better than long term deals unless you are talking about a Cole or Strasburg. But going into the luxury tax the next couple of years while keeping our top prospects may be the best strategy for where the team is now.

[andyb]

How disappointed would we be if we came out of this with 2 of the second tier non-compensation guys (from a list of Hamels, Keuchel, Gibson, Ryu)?

Do we feel good about that if it allowed some money for other moves? Or do we see those second tier guys as risky as betting on Eflin, Velasquez, and Pivetta to be good?

[zambonir]

It's definitely a risk-reward thing. And an age/health thing. Ryu could be as good as any of them but will he stay healthy (and will he even leave LA)? Keuchel still strikes me as Arrieta 2.0, which is a two-way street (Arrieta's been disappointing/hurt but still put up some WAR). Gibson seems pretty mid-tier, once you get to him, there are a lot of other names IMO. You could even argue that at 32, Gibson's future isn't necessarily better than Smyly's (and they both are TJ guys).

I don't know why MacPhail and Klentak always seems to feel the need to try and temper expectations because it never actually makes the fan base happy. But it's also possible the Phillies simply won't be able to sign the Top 4 guys - let's say Cole goes to Anaheim, Strasburg returns to DC, the Mets keep Wheeler and MadBum wants to play closer to home in Atlanta. I'm not necessarily getting in a bidding war with the Padres over Odorizzi (but if he turns into the new Arrieta or Keuchel with no major offers, sure).

Money is our best asset but it's not unreasonable to want to protect the picks too. And while a bird in hand is always worth more there are probably still scenarios where trading three players for a controllable starter would be better than losing a second-rounder for an older more expensive one.

I don't see the Phillies signing two QO guys (no reliever or position player) though so just losing a second-rounder for Cole, Strasburg or Wheeler still a no-brainer IMO.