2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[allentown]

We definitely can't wait until 2022. Waiting doesn't help. It was wise to take a shot in 2019 and in each of the next several seasons. We don't have some magic group of super-talented farm hands moving through the system. Our supply of internal prospects through 2022 looks like it will be average or a bit below, at least in real impact players. We are a .500 team with money, we should go for it. Guys like Nola, Harper, Realmuto, Segura, even Kingery are unlikely to be better in 2022 than they will be next season and some will be gone by then. There is zero benefit in being frugal in 2020.

[Austinfan]

We should not "got for it." Because we can't make it happen.
You're talking adding 15 wins, hmm, at $8-9M a WAR that's an additional $120M, I think that puts them way over the cap.
You're talking 1993 luck if you only add 5-7 WAR.

Now we may have to spend money to bridge until we get the organization on track, but that needs to be on two kinds of players, long-term fixtures (Harper) and short-term patches that don't tie your hands down the road. But 5-7 year deals for pitchers who probably have 3 good season in them would be foolish.

[andyb]

But you are betting on a below average farm system supplementing an older major league roster. That seems a bad bet too.

I guess we should never go for anything. Just draft players and hope for the best. We seem to be doing a great job of that.

Sometimes one needs to go for it. Waiting for the perfect time is a losing game. We are entering Bryce Harper's age 27 season. We get Cutch back. We can't have the same number of bullpen injuries. Why not add a number one starter in that situation?

[bigegypt0417]

The Phillies are not playing for 2020, geez, they won 80 games, first get over 90 for a couple seasons then make a move to get over the hump.

Washington nationals won 82 games last year...lost Bryce Harper and won the World Series this year.

Stop trying to use a script that doesn't exist.

Badly managed franchises use your mentality which has been you for the last 6 years telling us we're playing for 5 years from now.

The phillies have the financial resources to make moves to compete next year.

[bigegypt0417]

Sometimes one needs to go for it. Waiting for the perfect time is a losing game. We are entering Bryce Harper's age 27 season. We get Cutch back. We can't have the same number of bullpen injuries. Why not add a number one starter in that situation?

there is zero reason not to. AF has shown his idea is to spend as little as possible, collect as many AAAA pitchers as you can and hope it all works out.

[andyb]

It is interesting that we appear to not be interested in keeping any of the dumpster dives during the second part of last season. Smyly, Hughes, Parker, Morin, and Pirela are all gone. It does not mean we should not have signed them last year. We were faced with below replacement level performance because of injuries mainly and the proper move is to plug in replacement level performance where you don't have it.

And conversely we are keeping Pivetta and Velasquez and even Williams for the moment. Because they offer the potential of better performance.

I am all for signing a bunch of cheap relievers and letting a couple of them win jobs through good performance. I just don't want to rely on that.

[DurhamBull]

We should not "got for it." Because we can't make it happen.
You're talking adding 15 wins, hmm, at $8-9M a WAR that's an additional $120M, I think that puts them way over the cap.
You're talking 1993 luck if you only add 5-7 WAR.

AF, I hear ya, but I think the Phils can get better performance out of their existing roster. I feel like a lot of the players underperformed their potential, Hoskins being the prime example (and Kingery the prime counter example). There are some players from whom I don’t expect much improvement (Franco, wherefore art thou?) but there is definitely room to add wins from the existing roster.

[zambonir]

Indeed, that's the other thing. It was a 90-win team with a healthy Cutch, a healthy bullpen, a healthy Arrieta and a Hoskins whose second half wasn't a complete disaster. Now, maybe all four of those things will go wrong again but that means if you add another 5 or 6 WAR from an SP or 3B you're a wild card and if things don't go wrong, much better.

[allentown]

You're talking adding 15 wins, hmm, at $8-9M a WAR that's an additional $120M, I think that puts them way over the cap.

Where do you even get these numbers from. I said nothing about adding 15 wins. The Phillies won 81 games this past season, meaning 9-10 more wins get them into the 2020 playoffs. Get to the playoffs and anything can happen. It doesn't take a 96-win team to get to, or even to win, a WS. The 2008 Phillies won only 92 games. Second place in their division was 89 wins. This year's Nationals had only 93 wins, good for a wildcard, yet won the WS. This year was a tough one in terms of wins needed for a WC.Many seasons, 90 wins gets you into the playoffs.

Nor do all 9-10 extra WAR need to come from FA. I think that another season for the analytics department to learn their trade, coupled with a new manager, pitching, and hitting coach might well account for 2 of the needed wins. A less catastrophic injury season might add two more wins. FA additions might need to add only 5-7 more wins to see us into the playoffs Not many of our guys had what I'd consider a good season for themselves -- living up to reasonable expectations based upon prior seasons. Add 6 WAR with quality FA and then more cheaply fill the holes of the departed and injured players, plus AAAA depth and this team, IMHO, has a bit better than 50-50 odds of making the playoffs. Add 7-8 WAR and we have an excellent shot.

[Austinfan]

Nationals won 98, 86, 96, 83, 95, 97 games before falling to 82, so last year was a severe under performance, not an indication of their basic talent level.

Phillies have won 63, 71, 66, 80, 81 the last five years.

We're not one or two players from the WS.

Teams that tend to make playoff runs with marginal records tend to be good teams that get off to bad starts or struggle during the season, but put it together for the playoffs.

Even the 2008 Phillies, 86, 85, 88, 85, 89, 92, a good team on the field that struggled to put together a pitching staff for the regular season, then Hamels, Lidge and Madson put them over the top - Lidge had an unrepeatable season. The trade for Blanton was the key move, but this was always a team that was a couple pitchers away from a run.

[phillychuck]

You can add WAR without paying full value for that WAR. It's not a fixed price. You can add WAR by winning a trade (Stocker for Abreu); you can add WAR by signing a free agent below his future WAR value (2016 Charlie Morton signing by Houston, Donaldson was cheap for the 6.4 BWAR he provided the Braves), you can add WAR on variability (Scott Kingery 2019), you can add WAR on injury recovery (Jason Werth), and you can add WAR with player improvement (Mike Schmidt 1974). You can easily pick up 10-12 wins if things go right, generally speaking. A good GM and a good coach improve chances for this.

Oh, and prospects coming up and succeeding add very cheap WAR. Howard and Bohm could easily do that next season.

[Austinfan]

But you can't plan on the basis of things "going right," since they oft "go wrong." Like last year's bullpen.

[zambonir]

What is it you actually want out of a baseball team? You can't rebuild forever. What they have right now wouldn't even be enough for 2022/2023. By then Nola would be a FA, Hoskins probably won't be worth his salary, Segura will be gone, Harper and Realmuto will be on the wrong side of the age curve and Girardi's contract will be up. Kingery/Stott/Bohm/Haseley is not the magic future championship core, just some pieces.

Not to mention the GM is probably going to get fired if they don't win 90 games. So yeah, I might be a little worried about any trades, because while responsible GMs don't blow the future just because they won't be around, it happens (just look at Pat Gillick who still appears to be Middleton's most influential advisor).

There's a lot I would have done differently over the last couple of years but it was done. They are all in to win over the next two seasons and there is no other option. Plus it's what the owner wants and that seems to be all that matters anyway.

[phillychuck]

Some things go wrong, some things go right. You have to plan as if most things will go right when you're close. It's not like you're trying to improve a 65-win team here. You're close enough that if you get some good breaks you can get to the dance. So plan on getting some good breaks. And try to add wins however you can.

The team won 81 games with lots of things going wrong--most of the offensive lineup under-performed their career standards, even discounting for age. None of our pitchers were excellent, and lots of them were injured. Maybe, if "luck" had been more even last year the team wins 88-90. So add some wins however you can, and hope you get some breaks. Don't push the can down the road forever. The best window this team has is now. I'm a precess guy, but with this franchise it is time to try to land the plane.

[andyb]

If one does not deem this team ready, then the team should really trade all their good young players with trade value. Like Realmuto. Like Nola. Like Hoskins.

That of course is absurd. This team decided the current window was worth going for it last season with the Segura and Realmuto and Harper moves. They have a below average prospect base at the moment so counting on that in the next 4 or 5 years is a bad bet.

They should go for it now because the moves they made (like trading Sanchez and Crawford) are not reversible unless you want to trade your own young players. Now this probably means spending money, even going into the luxury tax a bit to save Bohm and Howard from trades. It is the cost of doing business when you don't have a deep prospect base.

[DurhamBull]

But you can't plan on the basis of things "going right," since they oft "go wrong." Like last year's bullpen.

That's fair IMO, but no team can really count on good or bad luck, that's what makes it luck. Nevertheless, it's legitimate to speculate what can happen with good luck. "Plan for the worst, hope for the best."

[bigegypt0417]

We're not one or two players from the WS.

If they are the right player and we fill needs with useful players, you have no idea if what you typed is true.

You have this really archaic idea of how teams are built and yours is purely based on spending like a small market team and hoping mediocre talent can catch lightning in a bottle.

[bigegypt0417]

But you can't plan on the basis of things "going right," since they oft "go wrong." Like last year's bullpen.

You typing that is interesting since every single one of your scenarios depends on this exact premise.

Don't spend big money but accumulate middling talent and hope that things "go right"

[Austinfan]

So you want to be the Angels East?
A team that tried to make the big push with money.

I have no problem with another Harper type move, spend big on a starter who can be part of a core for 5+ years, and like the 2000s, build a solid team and hope to get lucky with pitching (pitching tends to be so variable that even if you build a great rotation, see Lee/Halladay, it can collapse in a heartbeat.

But spending big on pitching when you don't have a top team on the field is a fool's errand.
SF won 3 WS with homegrown pitching for the most part.

So either patch (i.e. retain that cap room a couple years down the road for a big move) or go big for a position player, but don't tie up all your money in a couple 30 year old pitchers who have a lot of mileage.

[andyb]

So you want to be the Angels East?
A team that tried to make the big push with money.

No. We kind of want to be the Nationals North. Develop key prospects. Make trades of other prospects to fill holes. And compete for the free agents that are stars and can't be developed or traded for internally.

I (and others) agree that we need to develop our own internal talent. I just don't have blinders on to the reality that our system is not great at this point.

Arguments can have nuance. Teams can walk and chew gum. They can develop their own talent while adding other talent from outside the organization when they need it. And if our biggest resource is the ability to spend money so we don't have to trade Howard and Bohm, why not utilize that?

Your strategy seems to be one of permanent 80-win teams until we find some way to build a farm system. Or if that is not your strategy, what is it? Just complaining about spending money all the time is less useful than a discussion of alternate strategies.