2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

zambonir 2019-11-04 05:05:29 UTC #262

Ha ha, it seems so long ago. I wonder if things will ever work out for the Angels. They have talent, money, a good manager, but the GM only has one year left on his deal. Maybe Klentak is their next GM.

BostonRoss 2019-11-04 13:23:21 UTC #263

Hmmm, so is the lesson that everyone goes to the Angels (Hunter did), or that only the players not linked to the Angels do? It’s up to Gerrit Cole to let us know...

andyb 2019-11-04 18:16:29 UTC #264

It is top free agent list day:

Fangraphs has Cole at 7/242. Bowden has him at 8/288.

Bowden mentions the Phillies as among the best fits for Bumgarner (4th, 4/84), Wheeler (6th, 4/74), Hamels (12th, 2/36), Keuchel (13th, 3/42), Gregorius (14th, 1/12.5), Will Harris (20th, 2/18), Pineda (21st, 1/8), Gibson (23rd, 2/18), Joe Smith (28th, 2/10), Rich Hill (31st, 1/8)

Not much rhyme or reason on the inclusion of some starters on that list from Bowden. Clearly he thinks we'll lose on the top two (Cole and Strasburg) and then get 2 to compensate. Bumgarner and Wheeler are two where clearly we could win by waiting out the big free agents and then being willing to pay $20 million for 4 years or so.

andyb 2019-11-04 19:16:30 UTC #265

Qualifying offer deadline is 5 PM today. Mets are offering Wheeler. Cole is a given. Bumgarner likely also. Hamels is on the questionable list, though if he is actually going to get 2/36 then he'll get the QO. I might predict his contract more in the 2/30 range. This could be a factor on whether the Phillies should go after Hamels.

Earlier article forecasting decisions:

zambonir 2019-11-04 19:32:10 UTC #266

I always feel like Bowden is really making it up, more than Fangraphs or MLBTR. Including Gregorious but not any of the 3B seems kind of random.

I would agree, though, that if they can't get Cole or Strasburg and shy away from Smith, then literally every other starter and reliever on that list, including the ones he didn't single out, would be a possiblity.

Interesting to ponder Hamels vs. Keuchel. The latter has age on his side.

Taudawg 2019-11-04 21:00:00 UTC #267

Also put this in Non-Phils notes, but I think worth mentioning here - Braves declined Julio Teheran's option. He is an interesting addition to the free agent market. He turns 29 in January. He was only due to make 12 mil on the option which seems pretty reasonable unless there is a health concern.

zambonir 2019-11-04 21:28:11 UTC #268

He would definitely seem like a candidate for that second signing. Though I would also say that on paper, what he's been for the last three seasons is exactly what they thought our own guys could become (and still might).

andyb 2019-11-05 15:34:59 UTC #269

And the MLB Trade Rumor free agent predictions:

They have the Phillies getting Wheeler (5/100), and Chris Martin (2/14). Martin seems risky to me as a late career post-injury and Japan popup. Not sure he can sustain it. They have the Braves getting Hamels for 2/30. I am pretty sure the Phillies won't let that happen at that price. We are mentioned in the writeup of just about every significant pitcher.

nycphils 2019-11-05 15:55:18 UTC #270

I agree - I don’t see the Phillies letting Hamels get away for 2 yrs/$15m/yr - if it gets higher than that, maybe. Wheeler is definitely a step down from Cole.Strasbourg, but Wheeler and Hamels would put them in contention this year with the Braves.

I really believe the Phillies will target Brock Holt, especially if it is only $4m per - he is definitely a Klentak type player.

andyb 2019-11-05 16:00:12 UTC #271

Bonus of no QO on Hamels too. The list of offers:

Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants
Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Braves
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals
Will Smith, RP, Giants
Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals
Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets

schillingfan 2019-11-05 17:16:36 UTC #272

Are we drafting low enough now that we will have to give up a first instead of a second rounder to sign a player with a QO?

andyb 2019-11-05 17:23:44 UTC #273

Those rules were changed. We lose our 2nd highest pick if we sign a QO free agent plus $500K international slots. If we exceed the luxury tax it would be our 2nd and 5th highest picks plus a million international. Teams that receive revenue sharing only lose their 3rd highest pick.

julio 2019-11-05 17:26:13 UTC #274

You're a CBA behind, SF! First-round picks are protected, period.

Penalties for signing a QO'ed player are imposed in three tiers:

Revenue-sharing recipient teams forfeit their third-highest available pick (e.g., not necessarilly third-round - could be in any round after the team's first pick).
Non-revenue-sharing clubs (e.g., the Phillies) forfeit their second-highest available pick, as well as $500k from their international bonus pool.
Clubs that hit the luxury tax in the preceding season forfeit second AND fifth-highest picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.

If a club signs more than one QO'ed player, the penalty (relevant pick or picks and loss of international bonus pool money) is applied again.

Note also that when we say "first round picks are protected," we mean only the club's highest pick. Occasionally, a club will have two first-round picks - and the second pick could be forfeited.

EDmuch 2019-11-05 17:33:43 UTC #275

Brock Holt is a very, very interesting idea!

zambonir 2019-11-05 18:37:55 UTC #276

That doesn't sound like this front office to me though. If they don't value him at that number they won't sign him just because he's Cole Hamels. But that does seem like a fairish price.

And, okay, scratch that, if Middleton wants Hamels, we'll get him even if our front office says it's a bad idea.

These lists are mostly entertainment of course; FWIW Hamels has shown more interest in staying in the NL Central than returning to the NL East (if he can't stay in Chicago). Can't rule out California either. (MLBTR mentioned like 10 teams, too.)

I think Odorizzi could be this year's Keuchel, with a QO. And the Phillies could be in on any of those relievers, except probably Smith ('cause of the QO, though as ever it's easier to sign the second guy).

BostonRoss 2019-11-05 23:49:54 UTC #277

I have gotten to see a lot of Holt. I think he would be a great (and maybe cheaper) alternative to Hernandez. His OBP is higher than Cesar's and close to what Cesar used to put up. I think Holt is at least as good as Cesar defensively at 2B, and of course he's more versatile--he's played every position for the Red Sox except pitcher and catcher. His main issue is that hes not nearly as durable as Hernandez (he's had concussion issues).

nycphils 2019-11-06 00:06:00 UTC #278

If the Phils could trade Cesar for Jackie Bradley (the Red Sox are widely expected to get rid of him because he’s a FA after 2020 and they have a lot of $$ in the OF/DH with JD, Betts, Benetendi), a situation with Holt at 2B and Kingery inCF Vs RHP and Kingery at 2B and Bradley in CF vs LHP (and Bradley in the late innings with a lead) would make some sense

zambonir 2019-11-06 00:23:14 UTC #279

Who's on third?

nycphils 2019-11-06 00:27:07 UTC #280

Stop gap until Bohm arrives. Would be perfectly happy with Sandoval on a $500k-$1m contract to play third for the first couple of months and then be a switch hitting PH off the bench.

zambonir 2019-11-06 01:37:56 UTC #281

Why not just keep Franco? Or Cesar for that matter. I don't think the Sox would have any interest in Cesar. We'd still have to give back prospects. Probably better to just trade for Bradley, keep Cesar, sign Holt and let them all mix and match between 3B and 2B (with Kingery still playing some CF too).

Probably also easier to just pay for Moustakas, keep Cesar and have Kingery/Haseley in CF. In any case neither Bradley Jr. nor Holt make the offense better. At 31 Holt doesn't even seem to be that much better than Miller.

If we're calling the Sox, give me Bets.