2019-2020 Phillies Offseason News and Speculation

[EDmuch]

I think the Phils should move quickly & decisively to get Strasburg. I don’t think we should remain static while waiting for the Cole situation to play out. If we can’t get Strasburg then we know we have to go hard after Wheeler.

On the position player side, is seems so obvious that we go after Moustakis who can play 3rd, 2nd or 1b and give us another solid LH power bar. The would allow the Phils to continue to move Kingery around as needed. And with the effectiveness of McCutcheon still unknown & Bruce’s penchant for injury I think we need to maintain Kingery’s flexibility.

I would also go hard after Will Smith to tie down a real closer. From what I read about Girardi, he likes more traditional, fixed roles in his BP.

I would not make any moves toward Hamels until close to spring training. He is in serious decline and I doubt teams will be knocking down his door. I offer him a 2 year deal only if it looks absolutely necessary when pitchers & catchers report.

[LoneStarPhan]

Boras clients are notoriously slow to sign. I agree completely that the Phillies cannot afford to wait for a free agent that they may well not be able to sign for what ever reason.

[California_Dreamin]

If there is one thing we should have learned about Boras by now is that his clients go where they get the most money, not where they grew up, where they live now, who they play for now or where they can get as close to Disneyland as they can.

This talk that Cole will likely go to Anaheim and Strasburg to San Diego belies the fact that there is little evidence that either of those teams are likely to offer the biggest paycheck. Artie Moreno is a shrewd businessman and I am not sure he views Cole as the savior of a franchise that lacks 3-4 starting pitchers and not just one. As for the Padres, the bloom is off the Preller bud and many here in SoCal now view the Padres as a perennial third or fourth place team in the NL West, never being terrible but never being great.

Look, if the Phils write the biggest check they will likely get their pitcher, Boras clients don't sign up with him to accept the second best offer. I also have seen it reported several times [think Salisbury was one] who said they had heard that Boras is determined to keep Harper happy and winning if he can and will try and steer some of his better clients Harper's way.

Add to this the fact that Middleton and Boras get along well, the Phils are one of the few big market teams willing to ADD salary instead of cut back, and there is no way Girardi would have come to Philadelphia if he didn't receive a pretty solid mandate from the organization that they were determined to win in 2020.

Add all this up and I will be very surprised if we are phans don't end up looking back at this off season as a very fruitful one. Its almost like the perfect storm for the Phillies.

[David_Criss]

Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
Agent Scott Boras agreed days ago with the Washington #Nats that they would begin negotiations re-working Stephen Strasburg’s contract on Sunday
10:08 PM · Nov 2, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

[nycphils]

I don’t think the Angels have money constraints - they only have $90m committed in 2021 and they’ve been running $160m-ish payrolls, and they have Otani pre-FA until 2024 and Jo Adell coming up and looking good. Pujols also comes off the payroll at long last after 2021.

The padres have 3 guys at big numbers (Machado, Hosmer and Will Myers (yuck), but nothing but early arb guys otherwise as far as the eye can see, so them making a big commitment to a No. 1 pitcher like Strasbourg isn’t at all unlikely.

I don’t think they are going those places for less money, I think they are going to those places because those teams (a) can pay them what they want AND (b) are their preferred destinations.

[Austinfan]

"Less money" is relative, once you get in the $200-300M range, more money is less attractive than location.
I'm mean money is only about bragging rights at that point, not anything you'd want to buy.

[Taudawg]

I too might disagree with the assumption the Angels won't be a high bidder for Cole and/or Strasburg. The Angels just signed Trout to the largest deal ever, and when they signed Pujols, his deal was the 3rd largest ever behind the two A-Rod contracts. The Angels may have been waiting for this off-season, and the next one, to strike.Their payroll commitment for next year is reasonable, and in 2021 they only have 3 guaranteed contracts - 2 gurantees in 2022, and only Trout in 23. With Ohtani headed back to the mound next year, Joe Adell close, and Maddon signed to manage, it would seem they are all-in now. 2nd in AL in attendance and a sweet TV deal, they certainly have the money. The Angels could very well wreck our off-season hopes.

[zambonir]

Yeah the Angels have money and a history of paying. Don't forget them taking on all those Rangers guy too. And nothing about that history suggests Moreno is shrewd! Unless he's learned his lesson.

And yeah, the Padres have been a top player on the FA market in multiple seasons, and haven't done it for a pitcher yet. They are going to pay, probably.

The thing about Strasburg (who I still don't think is truly available) is, he's 31 years old, turning 32 mid-season. Would you give him six years $180? We blanched at six years $140 for Corbin, who was 29. Obviously that may have been a mistake and they're not going to bargain shop this year. But Cole is 29. Wheeler is 29. Bumgarner is 30 with mileage/injuries. If you're going to tack on extra years, better to pay for a guy who is gonna be 34 than 37.

Then again, if Strasburg does start talking openly to multiple teams and you don't think you have a real shot at Cole, the chance to have him - and take him from Washington - might be too good to pass up.

What about Ryu instead of Hamels, btw?

[Philsmania]

Cross Chapman off the list of potential bullpen targets.

Yankees and Aroldis Chapman reach three-year, $48M deal

[California_Dreamin]

I never suggested that the Angels wouldn't be the highest bidder, only that it is not exactly a done deal. Moreno is an interesting guy and well could decide to pay Cole top dollar. But he is not necessarily guaranteed to do so and also does NOT have a good relationship with Boras, stemming back to the Weaver negotiations. So there is that also.,..

[zambonir]

I really think the Phillies would have been hard-pressed to sign one of the league's other domestic violence offenders at the same time they are trying to manage the status of their own guy.

I suppose they could have used that as an excuse to release Herrera - "no, no, it's not because of the accusations, as you can see, we're happy to welcome a player who's served his suspension if he's actually good" - but would just be even worse PR.

Just because Girardi might prefer set roles doesn't mean it's smart to spend big money or three years+ on a closer, especially after the Phillies got burned on all three veteran reliever contracts the past two years. We already have a closer, too (who's actually been a closer longer than anyone on the FA market). Of course with all the injuries and question marks they are going to have to bring in somebody high-leverage and who knows if Smith or Harris will even rate a better deal than Robertson and Miller got last year (to say nothing of Kimbrel).

[tom81]

I expect a similar strategy this off-season to the one Klentak used last off-season. Overpay on second tier free agent early in the off-season so you aren’t forced to grossly overpay later in the off-season to get the first tier Boras client. Someone like Bumgarner or Ryu early, like Cutch last year, so you don’t feel as much pressure with Cole.

[Austinfan]

Even worse, you don't want to wait on the guys you can sign b/c you need the salary room to chase a guy who is using you to raise the price to the team he really wants to play for.

We need to extend Realmuto, and after that, just how flush are we?

[Philsmania]

Going with Neris as closer would be a bit of a tough sell with the fanbase. In truth, Neris is effective at least 75% of the time. However, in that roughly 25% when he isn't, he's really, really bad. As I like to say, for long stretches, he's Brad Lidge 2008, but then he hits a patch where he's Jose Mesa 2003. It's those Jose Mesa stretches that stick in people's minds though.

[zambonir]

I realize that, but the grass isn't always greener. If we sign Harris we'd be signing the guy who just lost the World Series. And Neris actually just had an excellent season. His WHIP and ERA were about the same as Will Smith's. I suspect if we'd watched Will Smith all season we'd be well aware of his foibles too. He gave up 10 home runs, Neris 11. He walked 21 guys, Neris 24. Same IPs. Smith has more saves and fewer blown saves but not so many as to be statistically significant.

If Neris was a free agent some other team would be giving him the two or three year deal.

I'm not saying we don't need help but Smith is literally the only free agent "proven closer" on the market. If some team wants to overpay for that, let 'em. Don't get me wrong, we need a bullpen arm, but if we're going to sign two starters and extend Realmuto and sign a 3B it's not going to be where the money goes. My guess is we shop a little lower on the market and maybe also make a trade.

[flyers19rw]

If Strasburg leaves DC, the rumors out West are that he would go home to the that coast, like San Diego where he is from. Its sort of the same deal with Cole. That he's looking to go back to Orange County and the Angels whose stadium is four miles from where he went to H.S. Pulling either of those guys from those places would take a huge offer.
There are other options out there for pitching. The Red Sox are looking to shed Price and probably are looking predominantly for a taker rather than prospects in return. The same could be true of Kluber in Cleveland. Then there are the other FAs that are on the market. Lots of options however there also are the Yankees and Dodgers to contend with since they are shopping as well.
IMO, taking care of JT is as big of a deal for the Phillies this winter as nabbing a top FA pitcher. Not that pitching doesn't need to be added, but with Price as the PC and JT behind the plate, there could be some strong improvement from what is currently in the system. Also no to Ryu, too injured; too often.

[zambonir]

I just don't put much stock in the "so-and-so wants to play closer to home/for his favorite team/for his old manager" until it actually happens. It almost never comes from the player or agent, it's always speculation by so-called "friends" (and gossip baseball writers who don't actually know anything).

Corbin was supposed to play for the Yankees. Harper was a cinch to prefer playing close to Vegas (and before that he was gonna be a Cub). Machado was also supposed to play for the Yankees or with his brother-in-law for the White Sox. Heck, even Cliff Lee was certain to either be a Yankee or stay close to the midwest/Arkansas last time he signed with the Phillies.. It's not always up to the player of course. But when it is there's usually not a discount (and teams drop out because no discount is being offered).

Heck, for all his ties to Philadelphia I'm sure Hamels would be just as happy to play in Southern California or St. Louis (where his wife is from and their foundation has its other location).

Kluber would cost you, even coming off the injury, he doesn't make that much money and isn't signed long-term (though him being a FA lowers the cost from that side of things). Unless the Indians are ready to totally white flag that's probably a deadline move.

I don't know that Ryu's injury history means he's more likely to get injured than anyone else we roll the dice on. He's very good. I wouldn't take him over Cole or Strasburg but I might over Bumgarner, especially if it saves you money to spend on the other stuff.

The core question is still the same - is it gonna be Gerrit Cole and Smyly/Pivetta/Velasquez, or is it gonna be two outside additions? If it is Cole, can they afford a second guy of any note?

[BostonRoss]

I remember when Torii Hunter was a free agent, he was supposed to be going to Texas where he’s from. He chose three different teams after that and never played for the Rangers.

[zambonir]

Pay the man

Realmuto wins his first Gold Glove Award

[Philsmania]

I remember when Torii Hunter was a free agent, he was supposed to be going to Texas where he’s from. He chose three different teams after that and never played for the Rangers.

Or that Trout was set on free agency and the opportunity to come home to the Delaware Valley.