2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[EDmuch]

I have complete faith that if the Phils want to include Britton it is because their scouts have concluded that whatever ails him is correctable. They do seem to have some idea of what they are doing.

[phillychuck]

It's nice to have complete faith in something these days. I'm not sure I can entirely remove all my doubts.

[xogfog]

I saw a segment on Britton on MLB Network. He was coming off an injury, his season only started in the middle of June and has only had 13 appearances. He walked 3 in his first inning back and has had two games that were awful, but his last 5 have been very good, his velocity is back up. If you want to land Machado with the intention of keeping him long term, you might need to overpay a little. Since Baltimore is a tire fire right now, maybe you could take Britton and Jones off their hands with Machado. They are all free agents next year, so you just do what you can to keep Machado and let the other two walk. A package of Medina, Crawford and Thompson for MM and Britton would work. If they want to throw in Jones for a another couple players not in the Phils long term plans, fine He could help, or you could turn him right around for something else. I just get the feeling like the Orioles will panic and the more money you can take off their books, the better the chance you can land Machado.

[zambonir]

The same scouts who think Hunter will be fine?

[Austinfan]

Machado is a rental, Yankees can match any offer Phillies make, and can offer, well, the Yankees and NYC.
So value him as a rental for a rebuilding team and price him in that context.

The fantasy that two months in South Philly will give the Phillies an edge in free agency is silly, two years if he were married and his kids settled in, but two months in a hotel room?

[Dirk41]

Completely agree.

Let the Brewers have him for two months then get him in the winter.

Can someone explain why this is a good idea??

[tom81]

It is a good idea to over pay for a rental to increase the likelihood of this first place team winning the division and getting to the World Series. It energizes the players, phans, and potential free agents. It increases your ticket sales this year. We have the best pitching in the NL, we are a legitimate contender this year.

If adding Britton for a non top prospect gets the deal done you do it as you also have the need for a lefty RP and if he suxs you eat his salary and don’t pitch him realizing it is part of the cost of doing business.

[zambonir]

I don't scoff at the rumors (I think I started that thread...) but I don't treat them as real either. There is more meat on the stuff that's been posted tonight, but on Rosenthal's original tweet, "sources" could be just about anything. It's highly unlikely they were primary sources (i.e. the Orioles are not directly feeding Rosenthal accurate info about the offers they have received, and the Phillies are not doing that about the offers they might make). It's gossip, and also counterintelligence. Maybe the Phillies have had the best offer all along and the Yankees/Dodgers rumor is to get them to overpay? Maybe the above was meant to get the DBacks' attention. Maybe Machado prefers NY or LA and his agent is the source.

I'm all for the trade though. As a board, we tend to overvalue prospects. Heck, i might even trade Sixto (he probably can't pass the physical right now anyway). There are just five diferent things that are special about Machado that make him more than just a rental. One is how good he actually is. Two is how well this front office knows him. Three is the chance to keep him. Four is the legit chance to win the division and play in the NLCS, we are not talking about a wild card run at this point. And I guess Five is the "splash" factor which I wouldn't count too heavily but it certainly doesn't hurt.

Also, you have to consider the alternatives. Moustakas may not be better than Franco. Beltre can block any trade. Merrifield might actually cost more than Machado. And just adding a platoon RF doesn't move the needle.

I think I'd rather trade three prospects than two plus Crawford because I do think Crawford will be worth two prospects himself, if Machado stays and they are ready to move him next year. Same for either Kingery or Hernandez. Having two extra major league starts lets you replace minor league depth.

[allentown]

It is a good idea to over pay for a rental to increase the likelihood of this first place team winning the division and getting to the World Series.

It may be a good idea to moderately overpay for a rental -- and let's be totally honest, it will be a rental, the chances of enticing him to come to Philly are very slim. To do too much of an overpay can derail the rebuild and cut short the next winning era. So... no plus prospects like Sixto and Medina. Other pitchers are fair game. If the Phillies have decided that Crawford is definitely not the SS of the future (which playing Kingery instead of Crawford there strongly suggests -- in fact this whole super-position-flexible IF game we are playing this year be largely to camouflage that HUGE conclusion and maintain Crawford's trade value. A team just doesn't move its rookie SS-of-the-future off of SS, while he is still mastering his trade in order to put a more-rookie rookie 2B there. Yes, Crawford is good defensively at 3B, but I guarantee you this: he is not our 3B-of-the-future.

[bigegypt0417]

Machado is a rental, Yankees can match any offer Phillies make, and can offer, well, the Yankees and NYC.
So value him as a rental for a rebuilding team and price him in that context.

The fantasy that two months in South Philly will give the Phillies an edge in free agency is silly, two years if he were married and his kids settled in, but two months in a hotel room?

If the Phillies felt he was only a rental they wont overpay. This idea the yankees can match any offer is silly...like actually very silly. The Phillies could blow any offer out of the water if they choose.

[allentown]

.

I don't agree, for a number of reasons. First, Middleton is not a dictator among the owners. The Phillies have always been a team that was severely adverse to being the ones to push salaries/bonuses higher. The Philllies have always been a franchise which suffered from budget/sticker shock in signing high priced FA -- or trading for them. I remain unconvinced that Middleton can convince the other owners in order to sign baseball's first $400 million, 10-year contract. Also, there are reasons Machado may not want to be in Philly. He may want the extra endorsement deals and media fame which comes from playing in NYC or LA. He may want the friendlier fans/media of Chicago. I'm quite sure that the fan/media treatment, including those announcers controlled by the Phillies organization, have treated both Abreu and now Herrera is not something minority FAs are unaware of. We have such a history in this regard, that you really would have thought ownership would have actively worked to change the narrative by forbidding at least those whom the team controls from disparaging Abreu and Odubel. It will be an organized lovefest for Manny as a rental, but I suspect he knows what awaits him if he doesn't lead the team to a WS next season. Quite apart from the recent disparagement of Hispanic players, Philly is a town which devours their stars, even when they personally are playing hard and well, if the team as a whole isn't winning the division/advancing in playoffs. MM knows he will be labeled as selfish if he refuses to move to 3B.

As for the Phillies not over-paying for a rental -- multiple posts in this thread are suggesting exactly that, I suppose on the theory that this season is our best shot.

[bigegypt0417]

Yiur argument is essentially that the Phillies are still the same Phillies that haven't in a decade. That argument doesnt really fit. Middleton seems to have an awareness of what he can do. These trade talks wouldn't be occurring if there wasnt a plan.

[zambonir]

It may be a good idea to moderately overpay for a rental -- and let's be totally honest, it will be a rental, the chances of enticing him to come to Philly are very slim.

I don't know why there is any reason to think that and obviously the front office doesn't think that. He's going to go to a good team with a front office he likes who will pay him the most money. The Phillies check off all the boxes.

There are only two owners now. Middleton can't make any decisions alone but he and the Bucks seem to be on the same page, and he calls the shots. Which is a lot more meaningful when you own 49% than 5% (or whatever Giles and Monty owned in their day). In theory if it is democracy all he needs is Gillick's support.

This is what the Phillies have planned for for three years. Ownership has been ready to give out this contract to this player since the day Klentak was hired (and if not him, Harper. If not them, well, new plan).

All the theories about the glamor of NY or the friendly confines of Wrigley are well and good but they are more speculative than the fact that Machado has a relationship with the front office for his entire career. And that's also what helped get Arrieta, and he signed with a 70-win team.

[Dirk41]

It is a good idea to over pay for a rental to increase the likelihood of this first place team winning the division and getting to the World Series. It energizes the players, phans, and potential free agents. It increases your ticket sales this year. We have the best pitching in the NL, we are a legitimate contender this year.

Maybe? 65 percent of Philadelphia wouldn't know Manny Machado if he delivered a pizza to their home tonight.

Winning smartly will energize the fanbase for a long time. Money will and has (Arrieta, Santana) energized free agents to consider the first call from the Phillies. Don't give up Medina or Crawford for the romanticized hopes of greatness for one player for 8 weeks.

[baseballoldie]

I concur - the relationship is a big factor as both sides have knowledge and an awareness of each other. I fully expect Machado and Britton to be Phillies before the end of the month. It will be an exciting rest of the season for Phillies Phans. And the relationship will give the Phillies the edge in signing Machado in the off-season.

[zambonir]

It is funny how the argument against getting him can be both, "why get him as a rental when you can just get him in December" and "why get him as a rental if he won't sign in December?"

This is not an all or nothing season but it is an oppportunity. The deadline is also not all or nothing. We are not talking about giving up three good prospects for MM or keeping them; we are talking giving up three good prospects for MM vs. giving up one or two good prospects for a lesser player (or possibly two good prospects and a couple of lottery tickets if they still want both a left-side IF and an OF bench bat; whereas I think if they add an MVP-caliber bat they can go with what they've got in RF, especially with Kingery also moved back to a flex role).

And if it actually is true that the Phillies have internally given up on Crawford or recognize he needs to be traded to play SS it is a lot easier to include him. Ditto Franco. I don't know if either is true. If Machado does come for good a Franco/Crawford or Kingery/Crawford platoon at 3B seems as likely as any of those guys alone or a new face.

I also think the positional flexibility thing is not cover. Kingery started playing SS out of need, and deciding to keep him there was maybe a bit of cover for his contract, to keep him in a routine. But I don't see how Kingery is in a different role next year, and I think their interest in Merrifield shows they'd like to add more players like that. I am sure that ultimately they would also like to think Machado can be won over to this approach, if not full-time 3B play.

[California_Dreamin]

LoneStarPhan....I had to chuckle a bit when I read your post because it was nice to know I wasn't alone back in the winter/spring of 86-87 in scouring every sports item in trying to find out if and when a certain catcher for the Detroit Tigers would somehow sign with the Phillies. His name was Lance Parrish.

He did in fact finally sign with the Phils and prove to be a disastrous get for the Phils. And in regards to rumors often times containing misinformation and little facts..sometimes yes and sometimes no.

As a phan who started following the Phillies late in 1963, I admit the Jim Bunning deal came out of nowhere for me. But I continuously read in the Sporting News of their desire to acquire Frank Thomas and they did in the summer of '64.

We also followed closely their pursuits of Pete Rose, Dick Ruthven in 78, Dick Allen in '75, Jim Thome in 2003 and of course the Hamels potential deal with the Rangers in 2015. All were as much fact as rumor.

But I agree with zambonir that all teams have agendas and will always try and use them for their benefit.

[Austinfan]

What helped get Arrieta was the league was wary of his decline in velocity and there wasn't the market he expected.

[andyb]

True, but the larger factor was all the free spending clubs wanting to get under the luxury tax line to reset their rate for next season and Harper/Machado.

[gmwannabe]

i think i would deal medina (hate to give up young pitching) instead of de los santos. gamboa would be a big piece also, i think. tough to decide. but their depth is much stronger than before. depth is as best as it has been in years. i just noticed this morning that the catching depth is really getting stronger.
gm