2018 Trade Deadline rumors/speculation

[EDmuch]

Oh, BE, please, You have been on my back for years since I correctly predicted your boy Dom would be a bust. But in the past two years, there are even more leaves to read. Who got the six year deal? Kingery or Crawford? I think that says a lot about to whom they are committed. Plus two years ago, we assumed Hernandez would be disposed of in a quick trade. Instead, he has turned into a solid 2b and lead off hitter. There are only so many spots in the infield. And right now there is no spot that has Crawford's name on it. Could he pull an amazing turn around like Williams has, and actually become a critical offensive component? Sure it is possible. But until JP does that, I don't think you can assume he is part of the long term plan. Really right now JP is just Galvis with more walks. And if they get Machado, to me it is a virtual certainty that Crawford will be part of what will be going back to Baltimore.

Lots more tea leave to read, if you just open your eyes,

[allentown]

At minimum, Crawford is an elite utility IF going forward.

[EDmuch]

I agree his future may be as a very good utility infielder going forward.

[zambonir]

I don't think it's certain Crawford is traded but if they get Machado long-term, they should probably trade him (for pitching, or a closer much as I hate that). He could easily spend one season in a bench role though, especially if 3B is still a question mark. But Occam's Razor does say that right now, if the Phillies were to get Machado and then weren't able to re-sign him, Scott Kingery would be the 2019 shortstop.

But that could still put Crawford at third base too. Because the tea leaves also still say that Franco is the guy with no future, hot streak (which mostly coincides with the weak part of the schedule) or not. Given what he does bring to the line-up that no one else does (power, fewer strikeouts) I can't blame them (or anyone here) for still wondering if he's going to be something though.

But all of this is why the team really has no business making a huge trade for a rental player. The value of continuing to hold these assets, and seeing them develop, is probably greater than the likelihood of making the World Series. And if Franco and Williams keep it up and Kingery can improve (aided by the return of Crawford) a team that is already in first place will just keep getting better. A closer and a bench OF might be all they need (though a back-up catching upgrade wouldn't hurt)

Then if you do sign Machado, you probably sign Hernandez to an extension too, and trade one of Kingery and Crawford. Or you trade Hernandez.

[bigegypt0417]

Oh, BE, please, You have been on my back for years since I correctly predicted your boy Dom would be a bust.

FYI...you did that and then changed your mind when he was killing the ball...only to go back to your standard "I told you so"

[EDmuch]

Z, I agree with most of your analysis. That is why I do not see Crawford as part of the future plan at this time. Sure somethings could change but right now he is on the periphery, not the center of the team's plans. To me, if they do not get Machado, they still need to add another power bat in the infield, probably at 3rd base. Nolan Arendo ????

[EDmuch]

Re-writing history BE. I said I was happy he was doing well and hoped he had turned a corner, I am a Phillies fan after all. Of course the corner he turned led into a brick wall.

[zambonir]

Arenado is just not available IMO. Today's Rosenthal column is partially headlined "inside the Rockies' turnaround." Even if they go 0-6 against the Dbacks the rest of July I don't think they'll be ready to give up on the season and trade a guy who can be there next year.

[EDmuch]

I was thinking of Arendo in terms of during the next off-season.

[andyb]

Who got the six year deal? Kingery or Crawford? I think that says a lot about to whom they are committed.

It might also say more about whether the player was willing to sign the deal. Now Kingery was the "hot" prospect of the two in Spring Training, but he is also not as good defensively (at SS or 3B) and the offense is a work in progress for both. Kingery (603 OPS in 325 career PA) has done nothing to suggest he is better so far. Neither has Crawford (651 OPS in 199 career PA). Kingery has more speed. Crawford has a better idea of the strike zone. Neither has shown much major league power yet.

If one of them is traded and Machado is not signed for next year, the other would play SS. It is unclear which of the two would be better at this point. That is why it is dangerous to trade both of them without a long term solution.

[zambonir]

I wouldn't think he'd be anymore available (just like Machado and Donaldson weren't this year) but sure. That's also why I don't think they should go big in the heat of the deadline for a rental, as much as I do want Machado. Get your free agent (whether it's Machado or Harper or someone else) and then you have the luxury of tradeable depth for a significant off-season deal to address something else. And if you completely strike out on the two big FAs, you'll need it (either on the team or for a bigger trade).

[andyb]

Fangraphs talking about what a Machado package might look like:

The Precedent for a Manny Machado Trade | FanGraphs Baseball

[Patchmk88]

I think that’s a fair statement. I’d probably offer Medina, Altherr, and another lesser prospect. Not sure if that gets it done, but I wouldn’t go much higher.

[zambonir]

Second thoughts about the Phillies and Manny Machado | David Murphy

Murphy is now in the "If he goes to NY or LA he won't leave" camp.

[DurhamBull]

But that could still put Crawford at third base too. Because the tea leaves also still say that Franco is the guy with no future, hot streak (which mostly coincides with the weak part of the schedule) or not. Given what he does bring to the line-up that no one else does (power, fewer strikeouts) I can't blame them (or anyone here) for still wondering if he's going to be something though.

Too soon to give up on Franco IMO. Kapler may have figured out something by batting him 8th. If that teaches him patience he can retain once he's moved to, say, 5th in the lineup and he continues to hit the way he has been, he's better than any other 3B currently on the team and an acceptable long term 3B. His .786 OPS is already above league average for 3B (.772).

[allentown]

That is good to know which hopefully means the MM price is dropping.

I think that, despite the argument that an MM rental is worth more to the acquiring team early in July than now or later, Machado is still an Oriole, because they have not received the sort of obviously good offer they have hoped for. The GM is playing both the PR and placate-the-owners game: delay the inevitable deal to avoid the criticism that perhaps he could have gotten a better deal had he only been more patient. I am not willing to include one of our best minor league pitchers. I would be willing to build a deal around Crawford, especially if I thought there was a significant chance of re-upping Machado. I find it disconcerting to read on the Athletic today that Crawford is seen as a better defensive 3B than SS, since he clearly doesn't own a 3B bat. The offer would pretty much begin and end with Crawford, adding just a minor pitching prospect at either side of the #30 spot of our top 30.

[zambonir]

That the Phillies prefer Crawford at 3B is sort of puzzling in general but I think it does remind us that they still really like him. And still aren't really sold on Franco, who wouldn't even be having this comeback right now if Crawford had stayed healthy.

The "3B bat" thing might not matter in the long run, if Kingery and Machado both have big bats. Or if your 3B hits 8th. If only Franco had a "3B glove" (though he's been fun to watch lately).

We're a ways away from deciding any of it. But as always with these debates, any name that comes up and is dismissed is dismissed because they have value, and in the end, Machado will cost something of value.

[California_Dreamin]

Probably doesn't mean much, and things are still fluid, but Ken Rosenthal just reported that the Phils have just upped their offer for Manny. He said the Brewers are fading, D'backs status quo and Dodgers and Yanks still in the lead.

In Baltimore the prevailing thought is two fold...1] Orioles want Manny to represent them in the All Star game so any deal will happen following the game and 2] good chance that they deal MM and Britton together to likely increase the return.

[zambonir]

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

[Patchmk88]

So we upped our offer but Yankees and Dodgers still have better offers than us. What’s the point of upping the offer if it’s not better than previous offers by other teams?