Discussion

Austinfan 2018-09-26 16:22:27 UTC #81

I'm not trashing the city, I'm just being honest about the difference between "destination" cities and everywhere else.
Really rich people live where they want, and free agents getting huge money have more options.
Philly has nothing that makes it more attractive than say Cincinnati or St Louis or Atlanta or Dallas.

Whereas LA and NYC are media/celebrity centers, Miami obviously has a special appeal to LA players, and so on.
There's a huge difference between a player making $10-20M with a family where they're looking at a nice domestic lifestyle and a player making $400M where he can have multiple residencies but wants to play where he can shine.

allentown 2018-09-26 16:32:14 UTC #82

But the good start wasn't entirely surprising. Many of us predicted a winning season, with 86 or more wins and a chance for the post-season on the poll prior to the start of the season. This was based upon 3 things: 1) the good ending to the 2017 season, 2)Signing Santana and Arrietta and the two relatively high-priced relievers, and 3) the kids being a year older and Crawford, Kingery, and we hoped Quinn playing this season plus a full year of Hoskins.

Toward the end of the team's initial period of success during the first 50+% of this season, CD posted the incredible stat that looking at the most recent 162 games from 2017 and 2018, that the Phillies had played the equivalent of a full season with a high enough win percentage to easily make the playoffs.

Then, for some reason which will likely be debated all winter if not for years, the bottom fell out and we suddenly found ourselves as the worst team in the NL. That was a huge change. A full season plus of a playoff-worthy winning record is not some SSS fluke. It showed a very strong young team. We ended 2017 with many elements of this year's young team in place. Now, certainly the talent was shallow, with not a lot of support in AAA and on the bench to fill in for the injuries we had. But the dive seems intense to be explained simply by that. I also discount the failure of the young pitchers after too many IP, because their innings load wasn't all that high at the time the collapse began and gained speed.

We can theorize what took the team down. I've made a guess or two, but readily confess I have no explanation for such a sudden downturn. Perhaps like 1964, the pressure built on everyone and some panic set in, including on the part of the manager and GM.

As with the Wade years, the deadline deals were a big part of the problem. Cabrera was an unmitigated disaster, both on offense and defense and he was the one guy we traded for who came at significant cost. I give better than 50-50 odds that Kilome ends up as an MLB SP within the next two seasons and he has a chance to be quite good. He doesn't look to have as good a future as he did when he was the great future pitching hope, prior to Sixto assuming that mantle, but I would have had him among my top 12 or so Phillies prospects after this season.

bkeich 2018-09-26 16:46:42 UTC #83

It is possible that Kilome will turn into something, but the simple fact is we were not going to protect him, he just doesnt make that list. So trading him really was a near-0 cost.

We have an odd problem now with our minor leagues, we dont have a ton of guys pushing to make the majors, but we are about to have a big 40 man crunch because we have a ton of guys that need to be protected, but are still at least a year away. Adding that to the fact that so much of our Major League team is still somewhat unknown whether they will make it or not (some, like Kingery and Crawford, maybe could still use some AAA time) that Klentak had some marginal prospects that he could afford to lose (because he was going to anyway this offseason). The only real loss in Kilome is that we could have held on to him and had 1 Rule V spot taken, as he was almost a lock to be taken.

Austinfan 2018-09-26 16:59:16 UTC #84

I would not have Kilome in my top 20, a dozen pitchers have passed him, he has shown no signs of developing command, and as superior pitchers like Pivetta, Eflin and Velasquez have shown, velocity can't compensate for mediocre command and secondary pitches.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-26 17:06:27 UTC #85

What do you point to in his development that makes you think the light is or is on the verge of turning on?

Philsmania 2018-09-26 17:44:29 UTC #86

allentown:

Toward the end of the team's initial period of success during the first 50+% of this season, CD posted the incredible stat that looking at the most recent 162 games from 2017 and 2018, that the Phillies had played the equivalent of a full season with a high enough win percentage to easily make the playoffs.

Then, for some reason which will likely be debated all winter if not for years, the bottom fell out and we suddenly found ourselves as the worst team in the NL. That was a huge change. A full season plus of a playoff-worthy winning record is not some SSS fluke. It showed a very strong young team. We ended 2017 with many elements of this year's young team in place. Now, certainly the talent was shallow, with not a lot of support in AAA and on the bench to fill in for the injuries we had. But the dive seems intense to be explained simply by that. I also discount the failure of the young pitchers after too many IP, because their innings load wasn't all that high at the time the collapse began and gained speed.

Every now and then you get one of those teams that just plays over its head for an entire season (like the Twins last year?). But then, that season and the party ends.

allentown 2018-09-26 17:58:41 UTC #87

It could be just as simple as that. For no logical reason, I don't expect such magic to carry over to the start of the next season. I guess I just have an overly large faith in the possibility of the off-season resetting things. Partly just hope in a new season and partly seeing how Burrell had an awful season after signing the big contract in the prior off-season, then was fine again the next season.

zambonir 2018-09-26 18:26:04 UTC #88

Those four cities are nothing like each other (and I've lived in Cincinnati and Texas). If you have already lived on the East Coast (as Machado has his entire life and career) Philly is a very familiar kind of urban center. Those are also all Arizona spring training teams except for the Cards.

And Machado is American, born in Florida. Miami is his hometown, not a place with "special appeal" because his family is originally from the DR.

Even the idea of media markets is to some extent irrelevant, sure, Yankees and Dodgers always have some glamour but TV and newspaper exposure mean very little to young fans (or marketers) at this point. If you are a star and your team is good you will get the love and ancillary $ (and your "media market" is the whole country, on social media and online).

Machado doesn't even seem to be that driven by these things, IMO. Again, we're stereotyping that a young, Latin player is interested in glamor and attention and money when he may not be any more driven by that than Chase Utley or Mike Trout are. He and his agent may want a record-breaking contract but that is a symbolic statement that he is the best player in baseball. What TV commercials he gets to do is not.

EastFallowfield 2018-09-26 20:07:12 UTC #89

Matt Gelb reports that Carlos Santana has said Machado asked him about playing for Gabe and he told him it was good, and we all know at least one current Dodger has warm feelings for Philadelphia, despite its status as a beachless dump.

fish 2018-09-26 20:19:47 UTC #90

The clubhouse has been pretty buttoned-up after the early season criticism of Gabe. I'm very curious to see if there will be leaks of discontent after players go home. There were just so many guys out of position this year, it can't all be sunshine and roses. I figured in spring training the positional log jams would work themselves out over time- but they never did.

EDmuch 2018-09-26 20:27:14 UTC #91

I think that is one of the biggest disappointments about this year, not the record, but the fact that very little was clarified about the status of any players other than Hoskins and Nola. I guess we could add that with the time he has had, Quinn has shown he is MLB material. But that just adds to the logjam rather than clarifying anything.

zambonir 2018-09-26 20:44:54 UTC #92

I suspect the front office has more clarity than we think. Who they actually move on from will be very dependent on external factors though (trade value, who's available in return or as FA). Some of the disappointing or still-not-ready-for-prime-time players would also look a lot better with better teammates.

Even Kingery could theoretically be traded (he was not one of the two untouchables in that recent item) but that seems a lot less likely as Hernandez starts to show his age (and gets more $).

Machado is taking a beating in some media outlets today for not running hard on a non-home run. A familiar topic to us as well.

nycphils 2018-09-26 22:09:11 UTC #93

I agree with this, but it is largely a function of the apparent failure of of the Moniak/Randolph/Haseley group to produce even one guy that projects (based on minor league performance) to be even an above average regular.

Sign Harper or Machado and things look drastically different; sign both and away we go.

EastFallowfield 2018-09-26 22:31:29 UTC #94

Jayson Stark:

I looked at every team that was 15+ games over .500 after 113 games. Not one of them finished with a losing record.

So if the Phillies don't win 2 of their next 4, they'll be the first. Ever!

(Later notes that the 2018 Dbacks are close to doing it too.)

EDmuch 2018-09-26 22:33:49 UTC #95

I do think they are going to go after both Machado & Harper, a LHRP & a LH starter (JA Happ).

flyers19rw 2018-09-26 22:40:40 UTC #96

Philsmania:
Within the last couple of weeks I asked the question, notwithstanding the team's final record, are the Phillies better off than they were a year ago? I hate to say it but that answer is lapsing into "no".

I don't believe that the season is totally worse than past season. Actually I am fairly impressed by the fact that a young rotation is coming into view that has solid potential, perhaps as good as the Braves. Nola has shown himself to be a star. I believe that next season that Pivetta and Eflin will take nice steps forward. They showed that they have the ability to do well. They need more consistency and another pitch which is in the realm of possibility for them. There are nice arms that are a step away from being in Philly-EDLS, Romero, Cole, Sixto.
The parts that are hard to take are :(1) the hitting-2nd worst in the NL in striking out and BA (sorry OBP is nice but hits score runs). (2) the inability to move runners along into scoring position and then driving them in; (3) the fielding. In '17 this team was 8th in MLB in the least amount of errors and fielding percentage; this year they are second worst in the amount of error and fielding percentage. That's a lot of losses.
These things are correctable- need a new hitting philosophy and work on the D. The regression by players in hitting is there and can't be ignored. Based upon previous year's performances, these guys are not as bad as their '18 stats indicate. The players are here that can field. They need to be utilized properly which is a correctable situation. Yesterday when Kepler announced that his entire staff would be back again, I was dismayed. I don't have a lot of faith that the corrections that need to be done will be acted upon by this staff. Its a stretch to believe that improvement will happen in these two areas in '19 based upon the last six weeks performance of the club. If this team stumbles out of ST going 15-30 like it has at then end of this season, then what?

zambonir 2018-09-26 22:50:56 UTC #97

The staff was already under contract for two seasons. The decision was already made to have a stable group for two years a year ago. And I don't buy that just changing a hitting coach - for the third year in a row - or assistant fielding coordinator is going to fix the problem. Most of the coaches are here to grow into their jobs just like the players and the manager. The ones who aren't (Thomson, Wathan) probably aren't to blame for anything. Nobody is, IMO. Except maybe the front office (whether it's lack of talent or an imperfect system of analytics and implementation).

EDmuch 2018-09-26 22:59:39 UTC #98

Z, u r far too rational.

andyb 2018-09-26 23:19:53 UTC #99

The one area we made progress on this year was with our young pitchers. It was uneven but the starters showed some promise in the 3-5 rotation spots. Our other young players (Hoskins, Crawford, Kingery, Franco, Williams, etc.) collectively did not take steps forward so that is a negative. And the system as mentioned did not take too many steps forward among our top prospects eventually.

So the long term prospects for the team did not really get much better unfortunately. We were always counting on this free agent market though and most of the improvement there is on offense. So if we improve offensively through free agency and pair that with decent young pitching it won't matter too much if the current young core does not take more dramatic steps forward.

It is disappointing our young core did not take dramatic steps forward like the Braves' core did, but it is not like we took steps backwards either.

allentown 2018-09-26 23:59:21 UTC #100

I agree that their is solid reason for optimism on the pitching side. I think that's true among relievers as well as starters. Our pitchers are being charged close to an extra earned run per game, because our defense has been so awful. Give the Phillies even a league-average defense and our pitching staff looks very good. On the pitching side, we also have interesting names at Allentown and Reading, who can make a contribution in 2019.

Where the situation has been horribly grim, and where there isn't really significant potential help in Allentown, or Reading, or even CLW is the starting 8. The likeliest near-term hope is Haseley. If we can't field a better daily dine-up, from both an offensive and defensive standpoint, the improved pitching isn't going to matter. With regard to the positioning of defenders on the MLB club, the Phillies have seemed clueless. The offense has gotten truly bad as the season progressed. None of this speaks well for the experience/expertise of our stats crew. I don't find "but the one guy is from Google especially persuasive as a counter argument. He may be a great stats guy who contributes greatly to the Phillies success, but now he's working in a new field, trying to catch up to other teams who have multiple years head start on us and who employ knowledgable stats people who studied baseball a ton, before being hired. You don't have to have played baseball or been a manager or GM to be a good lead on a baseball teams stats R&D team, but you do have to have spent years thinking about and modeling baseball stats, especially they new stats available from video. I'm not saying our guys are stupid or that they don't have a deep knowledge of the mathematics of statistics, but they are VERY new to the game compared to other games and aren't as grounded in practical reality. That will almost certainly come with time, but it isn't here now. It's just another area where we are playing catchup, as we did in the international market after Bill Giles gutted our DR operation and his successors took a long time to focus efforts there.

To me there is less optimism this September than last, because the team is ending the year on such an awful note, whereas las year it was surging. Beyond that, both Kingery and Crawford, who were expected to help in 2018 or 2019, have been severe disappointments. Hitting on the farm and among recent farm grads has been so bad that just about our full complement of MiLB hitting instructors were canned this far into the rebuild -- at a time we hope not to have any more primo draft picks for quite a while.