Discussion

flyers19rw 2018-09-25 19:19:07 UTC #61

Well, (A) how serious a WS contender the LAD will be in the future depends on many things starting with Kershaw's back; Jansen's heart and a lot of the other health issues with the pitching staff. (B) With Seager coming back next season, MM is off of SS. Where does he play-2B? I doubt that the Dodgers would move Turner off of third. (C) As for comfort level in LA, perhaps the Dodgers' comfortable level with him isn't the greatest. Perhaps its the change in leagues or the pressure of pending FA, but his stats since he moved from the AL to the NL have dropped fifty points in almost every offensive category in his new League. Paying MM what he'll get, along with the other costly contracts that the Dodgers have and will continue to have, will put them in luxury tax hell pretty soon. IMO, the Dodgers obtained MM for the short haul as a replacement for Seager this season and will let him walk after the year is over.

zambonir 2018-09-25 19:53:24 UTC #62

I think the expectation is that the Dodgers would indeed move Turner off third, possibly to 1B (or just the bench) at his age. But we shall see. What I think is certain is Machado will hit the open market.

Austinfan 2018-09-25 20:22:12 UTC #63

Realistically, if you made $400M ($250+M after taxes) would you want to live in Philly if you weren't from there?
The Sixers have already faced this reality, they're better off having their young players bond and keep them than chase free agents.

Machado will end up in LA, SF, Miami, or New York, that's where rich people like to live. He has zero ties to this area, and no reason to think he'd want to live here.

Once a player contract reaches ridiculous levels, you can only buy them if they're so ego driven that they have to max the money (and do you want that player, I want guys who live for the sport, because once they're filthy rich that's the only motivation left, the competitive fire). Most players at that point are thinking lifestyle, family, etc.

Which is why teams like the Phillies have to build from within, Atlanta is smart enough to understand that. You can strategically buy free agents (veteran patches, young late bloomers) but you'll struggle in bidding wars against top talent. Trout is the only player with Philly ties, and he should be the target in 2021.

You can't build a strategy around day dreams.

zambonir 2018-09-25 21:53:47 UTC #64

Machado already does live in Miami, and will continue to do so. Where he reports to work for less than 1/3 of the year is irrelevant. Even more so when you go from rich to mega-rich (and your owner has a plane).

If there was actually a Florida team worth signing with, or the Texas teams wanted him, then I'd be worried, 'cause that would bring the no state income tax into play. But it's not. And California's is the highest.

allentown 2018-09-25 22:10:31 UTC #65

He'll go to NYC or LA, where there are more opportunities to earn endorsement $, join the club scene, and join the show biz scene, and where there is a more vibrant middle- and upper-class Hispanic society. Also, not much enticing about the Phillies ending the season as the worst team in the league and trying to run a stats-based organization a failing abysmally at it because they don't have sufficiently experienced staff. At the moment, the Phillies have a dysfunctional circus aura about them. The farm isn't strong, the top draft picks they got for all the losing are largely a missed opportunity, and 3 years into a rebuild we just fired 2/3 of our minor league hitting coaches. There still is no organizational stability, after MacPhail was hired to take over way back in June 2015, nor is there an articulated and implemented organizational philosophy which makes any sense at all. When an org says defense basically doesn't matter, because that's what their stats researchers tell them, and that team is losing almost a run a game compared to an average defense... That seems like it matters a great deal. Your question shouldn't be 'why wouldn't Machado come to Philly?' it should be 'Why the heck would he choose to come to Philly, when he has his pick of destinations?' Yes, we fans really want him, but exactly what about the Philly/Phillies situation do you expect him to find extremely appealing? It was sort of an iffy sell when the team was doing well, but now? Also, I still think this organization will choke on a $400+ mill requirement.

flyers19rw 2018-09-25 22:29:36 UTC #66

This afternoon Kapler announced that the entire coaching staff will be retained. We’ll have to see how this works out. Atlanta, the Mets and the Nats are all ending their seasons on an upswing. OTOH, the Phillies are the dregs of the NL.

zambonir 2018-09-25 22:35:21 UTC #67

There's no evidence Machado cares about "the club scene." Seriously, that's just stereotyping (of both race and youth).

Fact is, right or wrong, this front office has had his name on a chalkboard since they took over, they know him, they know his agent, they could have traded for him in July if they thought it was essential to landing him long-term. And lots of people around baseball think the Phillies are going to get him or Harper or both. Because they understand that the process of signing a free agent is a lot more complex than our emotional fan perspective or armchair shrinking.

If they choke on the $ thing that would be very bad, but again, they've been planning for it. Middleton is ready to spend it. And if this front office has learned anything this year it's that they didn't inherit as much talent as they'd hoped (that they've also come up short so far in drafting is a separate problem).

We don't really know that the stat guys said defense doesn't matter, that's just what we surmised from their actions. But they obviously didn't think Hoskins and Herrera were going to stink, and that Hernandez and Santana would not be as good as they were previously, and that Crawford was going to flop. What we ultimately saw was what they had as much as what they chose (perhaps aggravated by poor data/strategy). The big changes coming are going to involve sweeping out a lot of players as much as refining philosophy.

The pace of the rebuild, including at the FO level, is basically the same as it was in Houston. But they had far more talent.

Philsmania 2018-09-25 22:57:39 UTC #68

For years, people laughed at the Phillies for scoffing at analytics. Now, they laugh at them for being the Keystone Kops of analytics. Clueless eggheads, they are. Great, the one guy worked for Google. What the false understanding of carnal knowledge does he know about baseball?!

Within the last couple of weeks I asked the question, notwithstanding the team's final record, are the Phillies better off than they were a year ago? I hate to say it but that answer is lapsing into "no".

If "control person" John Middleton isn't embarrassed at this buck stopping with him, he better be. He needs an intervention from his friend Jeffrey Lurie and the need to cut bait on something that isn't working before it gets out of hand.

tom81 2018-09-25 23:19:06 UTC #69

Realistically if you make $40M/year for 10 years you can have a nice place in both New York and Philly and hire a helicopter to get you back and forth in under an hour.

None of us know Machado so we really don’t know what will motivate him to sign. The most money, people who he knows in the front office, may or may not be the difference. If he needs to play SS so be it, he is a much better SS now than anyone else on our roster. I also think part of the decision for Mochado will be the players he will be playing with. If you trade Hernandez and Santana you might negatively impact your chances to sign Machado. Signing Harper might help your chances to sign him. I think that it might be important to go after both Machado and Harper, and to keep the established veterans, to convince each of them that we are serious about winning. If they don’t think we are serious about winning I don’t think we will get either.

My early delusional lineup:
2B Hernandez
SS Machado
RF Harper
LF Hoskins
CF Quinn/Herrera
1B Santana
3B Crawford/Franco
C. Alfaro

Bench: Herrera/Kingery/Franco/Knapp. I like Ramos but don’t think we will add his salary unless we miss on Machado/Harper. I know this is very unlikely but hey who knows?

LoneStarPhan 2018-09-26 00:28:25 UTC #70

As bad as the team has been since the sweep of Miami the first weekend of August, and they have been bad, we should not forget that they were surprisingly good this season up to that point. There are some good things to build on.

The biggest strength for next season might just be the pitching. Nola seems to have grown into the #1 in the rotation. Arrieta has faltered but may well contribute to the rotation again next season. I have been pleased with Eflin, Velasquez and Pivetta. They have had some struggles but also have shown real promise. If at least two can step it up and be more consistent next season, the rotation can be a real plus. We also have several pitchers coming out of the minors that may be ready for significant time in the majors next season. The bullpen also has numerous pitchers who I think can be a part of a very good pen next season.

I do think they should try to add a LH starter to the mix and they definitely need a LH reliever they can rely on in the pen.

I hope they have learned from this season. There are many things about Kapler I have liked, but there have been some that cause me to wonder. I think he can be much better next season. Clearly, they need to look at the defense. It is hard to believe that the defense could be worse next season. I think they need to lock down most of the positions with a clear starter who will play that position 90% of the time unless injuries force them out. Having starters who know their position and role in the batting order will provide stability and I think improved performance. Now for the bench, yes, versatility is great. I welcome players who can play multiple positions and switch hitters are a real plus.

So the off season should be very interesting. Who makes the 40 man roster? What will they trade for and who will they trade? But of course, the big question is can they sign a huge free agent like Machado?

bigegypt0417 2018-09-26 13:03:18 UTC #71

This!

They have had a terrible month and there is no denying that. This is the second youngest team in baseball and has a ton of money to spend. I think in order to make a point there are a bunch of posters who have decided to denigrate the city of Philadelphia to a point where it's like signing to play in Alaska or Siberia.

It's almost as if those haters of the city have gotten their wish and convinced the fans of the city that it really is a hole.

Machado will sign where the money is...you can get endorsement deals in Philadelphia...this is a very good sports city these days and I get the whole "the sky is falling" mentality but it's kind of boring.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-26 13:06:43 UTC #72

The Phillies can go toe to toe with any team when it comes to dollars...

Multiple rival executives suggested they believe it’s quite possible the Phillies land not one – but both – superstar free agents this winter. Of the more than 10 executives contacted this week, though the question was about who’d get the bigger deal between outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado, a few volunteered that they believed Philly could sign both players. They have been connected to both players in recent years, and despite a few free agent signings last winter, they still have a relatively small amount of money committed to future contracts, which seems to position them for a potentially monster winter.

EDmuch 2018-09-26 14:10:46 UTC #73

BE you and I don't agree very often. But I am 100% with you about the irrationality of this trashing of the city of Philadelphia by certain posters. Manny wants city life, I hear the Lee family had/has a really nice condo overlooking Rittenhouse Square. Want peace & quiet? The Thome family found a marvelous estate in Upper Bucks County. With the money Machado will be getting, he will be able to buy his own plane to fly back to Miami on every off day if that is his choosing.

Philsmania 2018-09-26 14:21:48 UTC #74

Didn't Utley buy Iverson's old house?

tom81 2018-09-26 14:43:27 UTC #75

Gelb's article today in the Athletic somewhat backs up this thought. These quotes from Santana:

“I am expecting phone calls in the offseason because I know guys are going to call me to ask me how things are here and why they should sign with us,” Santana said. “Especially Machado. He’s Dominican. We talk often. He’s shared that thought with me already.”

“I have enjoyed playing for him and playing with my teammates,” Santana said. “The young guys, there are very talented kids here who have promising careers. Especially in the clubhouse, I have enjoyed my time. We have connected. I know Kapler is a little different, but we’ve talked. He understands and respects that I like playing all the time. I always like being on the field. That’s one of the most important things for me.

“There are plenty of positive things I can share with (potential free agents) about the Phillies, about how the team has been managed and coached.”

bigegypt0417 2018-09-26 14:48:22 UTC #76

Agreed!

Somehow the stereotypes and the perception Philly is a dump are the reasons we can't sign them.

I'm really shocked that some board members have gone with these reasons for why he wont sign here.

DurhamBull 2018-09-26 14:58:33 UTC #77

I hear the football team got some national attention last year.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-26 15:03:06 UTC #78

Just a little bit...

EastFallowfield 2018-09-26 15:03:09 UTC #79

I get the impression that most baseball players don't spend a lot of time hanging around their residences during the season, even if they live on a beach.

EDmuch 2018-09-26 15:13:07 UTC #80

162 games plus batting practice, game film, etc. should keep a guy pretty busy from April thru October.