2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[phillychuck]

Watching the end of the year play out, we have an interesting group of players with some talent, but they're not well-matched as a team yet. Klentak has a LOT of decisions in front of him which will include constructing at least a trade or two to blend the talent a bit.

IMHO, Santana has to be traded or play 3B full time, allowing Hoskins back to 1B
So Santana or Franco has to be traded.
The OF has been a mess (except for Quinn, who can't stay on the field) for 2 months, since Herrera went into his slump. Upgrading that group will be a challenge.
Machado has to be the #1 target.
Do you keep Ramos?
Probably one or two of Crawford, Hernandez, and Kingery are possible trade candidates (depending on Machado).

There are a lot of chess pieces that might be moved, Klentak has to step up his game.

[Lawman]

@phillychuck I pretty much agree, except that Santana can't be the everyday 3B. Giving up too much on defense I think.

Also, from among the group of Hernandez, Kingery, Franco, and Crawford there's way too much inconsistent offense. Agree on obtaining Machado alleviates that to a degree.

Klentak has his work cut out for him.

[andyb]

Agree with the thoughts on Santana. I wonder if he would be as good as Franco defensively if he played there most of the time. In a world where his salary is hard to move, 3B might be the right option.

I do not re-sign Ramos. Older player that might age quickly and Alfaro might be better than him as soon as next year for a much lower cost.

They need to be all in on Machado or Harper. And probably a left-handed starter (Corbin or Yusei Kikuchi). They won't get all 3 but who they get should dictate the next steps to some degree.

And I might push Crawford and Kingery to both play in the Dominican this Winter. Get a month of at bats against good competition early in the winter to make a case to be the SS or 2B in the event Machado and/or Hernandez are not here next season. Decisions need to be made, and they don't want to give up on 2 young players that could still be good regulars and actually play decent defense which is in scarce supply at the moment.

[Austinfan]

Santana can play 1B and 3B and he's a switch hitter, expensive bench piece but we can afford to keep him if no one makes a decent offer, it's just Middleton's money. Only two years left on his deal, and if Franco becomes a dependable bat, he can be moved in July.

Ramos is worth it on a 2 year deal if he has the personality to be a mentor, you have to pay him on the basis he'll play 80 games or so. So it takes care of himself, if he wants more money (and someone offers it) he goes.

We're not getting Machado, in what universe would he want to come here? Money isn't going to make his decision.

Harper at the right price is a possibility, but he's far too inconsistent to give a megadeal, he's a 5 year, $150-175M type deal, not a $10 year, $350M overpay that can cripple your franchise (doubtful the Dodgers will take him off our hands!). In five years he'll probably be a seriously negative fielding corner OF, so he'd have to maintain a plus plus value to have value, so you don't want to commit that long.

We're not going to be competitive in 2019 unless the core improves, this fantasy of buying a WS is just that, if your base isn't good for 85-90 wins, free agents aren't going to be difference makers. Arrieta is the most likely outcome, an overpay that adds limited value. We need to play the kids next year and find out who belongs in the long-run. If we add free agents, anyone over 30 should be on Santana/Arrieta 3 year deals that won't block resigning the core. This season showed that adding a bunch of solid veterans isn't enough if the kids aren't ready.

The real key is improvement by young players, Eflin with his changeup, Pivetta, the young bullpen, Crawford, Kingery, Franco, Quinn, Williams, Hoskins, Alfaro, and developing some players like Haseley for the second half. Can we put the fantasy baseball "buy a winning team" scenarios to rest? We're not the Yankees or Dodgers,and both of them have focused on player development (Darvish was allowed to walk, Yankees are becoming mostly homegrown) because they cvouldn't make the buy a flag strategy work anymore (see the Red Sox for another convert).

[David_Criss]

If Machado is signed, I hope it is for 3B.
Crawford at SS
Kingery at 2B - IF and only IF Hernandez can get value in a trade

[teabag259]

While the season was a surprising success up until mid August the front office has to be willing to make multiple difficult decisions. To me there are two “untouchables” on the roster (Nola and Hoskins). After that I expect multiple changes across the board. Not a revamp or start over. But I think the current core has limitations. I hope they keep Ramos. Aside from him I expect the rest of the newer acquisitions to be gone. Obviously the FO will try to make a splash in the FA market. It should be Machado first. But it can’t be Machado or bust. Bust cannot be an option. Santana, Franco, Herrara, Williams, Altherr, Cesar, JPC, and even Kingery (although I suspect he is viewed as untouchable as well) need to be in play in terms of trades. We need another reliable SP and the bullpen needs to be shored up. I expect a ton of roster movement this offseason.

[nycphils]

Personally, I would:

Keep Ramos if I could get him on a 2 year deal; I’d let him go if more was needed

Go all in on both Harper and Machado, although I think Harper is much more likely. If you are going to pay up, pay up for stars not lesser players, and they are both stars. Quinn and Altherr would be the backup plan at least for the 1st half if neither is willing.

I agree with AF on Santana - I’d keep him as an expensive bench player at 1B/3B/interleague DH and have Rhys starting 4-5 days a week at 1B, then maybe see if Santana could be dealt in July

I’d stick with the kids at SP - I think one or maybe two of Pivetta/Eflin/Eickhoff/Velasquez will be reasonably good next year, and with Irvin/Suarez/JoJo I think they can fill the 5th starter spot, and maybe deal for a starter if need3d at the deadline. If I felt I needed another starter, Dallas Keuchel may be achievable on an Arrieta type deal.

Bullpen I’d deal Garcia and Morgan if I could, and maybe think about Andrew Miller, but otherwise go with a pen of Hunter/Neshek/Dominguez/de los Santos/Arano/Ramos/(Rios/Liebrant/Edgar Garcia/Dohy/Llovera/etc)

[zambonir]

There are so many other players out there who will be available. I think a starter is still more likely to arrive via trade, it's just a question of how much prospect they would have go give up, as opposed to the major league pieces and excess 40-man inventory they have to work with.

I agree about Ramos, if his age and health make him basically a 50-50 catcher, not a two-time all-star starter, a two-year deal should be achievable. Plus the Phillies could overpay in that case (unless Machado and Harper are here).

[EDmuch]

To me the one we should look to trade is Herrera. He is the kind of inconsistent player that cannot be a part of a championship team. He has decent numbers and a reasonable contract, so there is a chance some team would actually be looking to trade for him and, as part of a package, he could bring something useful back to us. I could also see us going after Andrew Miller who is the type of "leverage" reliever that fits Kapler's style.

[flyers19rw]

Could it be that Herrera's inconsistency this season is a result of the way that Kapler has managed him? For three seasons his numbers were fairly similar, including having off periods. However this season he has slid. Not every player is going to respond well to being moved around in the batting order; having his positioning in the field altered and ultimately being benched. His season got off to a bad start with Kapler in the first series and has been shaky ever since. Three seasons ago, Doobie was an AS; now he's junk.
Something is wrong here and it may not all be on the player. Too many players have regressed in their play this season. There may be some players that management and the phans want to see sent out of town but there also may be some players who are going to be quite happy to leave.

[zambonir]

His season got off to a bad start with Kapler in the first series and has been shaky ever since. Three seasons ago, Doobie was an AS; now he's junk.

Well, that's not really true. He wasn't shaky at all in April and May. He was the team MVP. And perception was the last manager wasn't good for him either (though I don't think that was ever true).

HIs defensive drop is a bigger concern, as far as both his value and whether management messed him up. Fix that and the only thing that's wrong with Herrera is his teammates, because he's never going to be one of your three best bats.

I find it hard to get worked up about the fact that a bunch of returning players of questionable merit from a 66-win team "regressed," even if it was really true. People said it last year (when they did in fact fire the manager and hitting coach) as well. But in both seasons the reality is about half the roster improved and half did not. (I'd put Franco, Williams and Alfaro in the former category this year. Herrera and Altherr in the latter. Hoskins same as he ever was. Hernandez and Santana's were disappointing due to injury/age. Kingery probably shouldn't have been here. Defense a whole other issue of course.)

We've been waiting a long time for a front office that isn't old school and now that this season has crashed so badly it seems like some would gladly take Amaro and Charlie back (or someone like them). I do question the pace of the rebuild at the front office level, including sticking with Mackanin in the first place. But that's what they did, so this year was still a rookie manager and a radically overhauled coaching staff, with a roster that was almost entirely acquired by the previous regime (except VV and this year's FAs). Definitely more change coming, especially w/ so few reinforcements (whether from Amaro or Klentak) in the high minors.

[saycheese]

The problem is the way Kapler managed this thing its really tough to say what we have and don't have. Did these guys play better because of the way he managed them or did they underachieve because of the way he managed them. That is a tough one. I know we have a few definite.keepers, Hoskins, Nola, and Seranthony. Beyond that I have to say we could have a few others who will look like they could be keepers. Alfaro needs to block the ball in the dirt better. His overall offensive numbers were not terrible and he really picked it up after Ramos arrived. I think its too soon to give up on him. Nick Williams had a couple of nice stretches and overall I think we should keep him. After that maybe we keep Franco, maybe not, maybe we keep Hernandez maybe not. I would look to move Santana for anything they can get (and most likely have to add lots of cash to it) he wasn't a fit when they signed him and he proved that throughout the year. Still don't understand why you move your best offensive player to a position he is just not good at to make room for a guy who bascially put up Tommy Joseph numbers (Although Joseph didn't walk nearly as much) Pitching wise they need another middle of the rotation starter. As good as Eflin, Pivetta and Valequez were in the begining of the year was as bad as they were at the end. I would move one of them to the builpen and sign or trade for a solid major league starter. Now the defense to me is the biggest issue on this team. To me its because we are playing so many guys out of position. I get versatility but I think Kapler takes it too far. And its not just the players the shifts hurt the team as much as they help and the big thing is the pitchers don't like them (Sometimes playing to your players strengths is more important). I don't know if they will be able to sign Harper or Machado or XXX player this offseason. I know they have the money and the want to. I am just not sure if this is a destination yet. At the end of the day, once the dust settles, Kapler is going to have to look at his managerial job this year, keep the good, improve the bad. Klentak has his work cut out for him this offseason. He needs to land a big fish and can't come up empty like the Sixers did. If so they could actually decline next year.

[flyers19rw]

The issue is not Kapler or Mackanin, Sandberg or the Amaro era. What's on the table here is how well did Kapler do with the talent that he had? There are too many players that, for whatever reason, did not live up to expectations. Some key team numbers regressed from last season and are close to being the worst in the NL. Right now the only member of the coaching staff that should get a pass regarding the team's performance should be Kranitz. Nola and the young starters showed better than they had under McClure. The BP collapsed in August; probably from overuse earlier in the season.
It will be interesting to see how the FO views the season in light of the weak offensive numbers and horrible fielding. An end to a season is often the harbinger of what's coming in the next. It seems to me that unless some major adjustments are made, next year could be one that puts the Phillies in a position to be drafting high in the 2020 amateur draft. Going 10-20 is not good and isn't going to draw phans to CBP. Baseball fans in Philly aren't naive; they know good ball when they see it and it hasn't happened for a good part of the season.

[zambonir]

I guess my expectations of the individual players were different. I didn't think Franco or Williams would do as well as they did. I never really figured Altherr was a full-time answer either but the season he had is consistent with his past performance when he's been hurt or struggling (including late last season). Crawford we never saw enough of to know. Hoskins is practically still a rookie and struggles were to be expected; I don't actually believe there's a 1.000 OPS superstar hiding in him unfortunately. That's something he'll do for a month and then he'll have a bad month.

Not sure the notion that how you finish a season affects the next would actually hold up to any statistical/historical analysis, especially given year-to-year roster turnover. We can even say that people who thought last year's second-half record meant this team could contend were both right and wrong.

I wouldn't give Kranitz a pass any more than anyone else, 4/5ths of his rotation mostly collapsed when it mattered most and he gets as much say over bullpen usage as anyone. If you really think the manager and hitting coach have that much effect on how someone like Herrera faltered it's no less true of the pitching coach with Arrieta or Garcia.

[flyers19rw]

Recently, I viewed an interview with Billy Beane. In it he stated that in every July he evaluates his team and decides whether it is in the run for the POs or not. If they are, he adds players; if not he sells off anyone that he can for a fair return. It's a cold calculation but one he said that had to be done. It's his reasoning that the team that he puts together over the winter and through ST is one that can make the POs. If they aren't there in July, the team needs to be totally reworked ASAP. We've seen the results as he's blown up and reassembled teams for years.
I realize that Oakland has financial constraints that limit them in ways that the Phillies don't have. However his philosophy has merit. The record of the Phillies since the beginning of August is the worst in the NL. The Phillies have had a minor league system that was highly praised over recent years. It was one that was supposed to turn out solid MLB players; maybe not stars but competent ones. That never showed up this season. IMO, it's time for a Billy Beane style of evaluation. Is the overall approach to the game working? Are the components-pitching, hitting, fielding effective? If not, changes have to be made at that level. Then the field staff and players need to be adjusted to meet the needs of the new way.
Baseball is a competitive business. There's lots of money on the line. I doubt that Middleton is satisfied with attendance. Comcast can't be too thrilled about the product that they are paying to broadcast. TPTB should be facing some hard decisions and make the moves to improve the product. As it is right now, the Phillies don't look to have any shot at the POs in the near future. In the East, the Braves are young and better off than the Phillies. They currently might lack some arms but their farm system is loaded with them. The Nats are going to slide from being the division favorites but they have a crew of young talent that is currently producing at the MLB level. Even the Mets have an edge on the Phillies. Their rotation is as good as it gets. That puts the Phillies above only the Marlins in the division. The Phillies need to face these facts and operate accordingly. It's time for a hard look at what they are, where they are presently, and make the tough moves to improve.

[Austinfan]

I think that's why there was a shakeup on both the scouting and player development sides of the system.
The mistake was thinking you could add veterans and become a contending team, that works once every couple decades (1993), If the team wasn't good enough to contend at the TDL, sell, don't try to buy your way into contention.

Fortunately, Klentak did enough to placate Middleton without jeopardizing the future, they lost no one of consequence, though Kilome and Lively had some value.

I've been focused on 2020 because unless you get "Acuna" luck, that is, someone like Sixto jumping to the majors as a #2 starter or Ortiz ripping up Lakewood and Clearwater in the same season then jumping Reading and Philly in 2019, it takes a few years for players to develop. Some of that luck is scouting, some is just luck (Altuve). Phillies haven't had that luck, so they're better off accepting that they have to do it the hard way rather than look for shortcuts.

[zambonir]

The notion that Middleton is impatient has no basis in fact. He, McPhail and Klentak have all bought in to this plan, including the unsatisfactorily slow process of spending 2-3 years evaluating what was already here, and the emphasis on 2019 free agents. Comcast also has no impact or input on the Phillies, they are a huge multinational corporation who purchased a piece of entertaintment content, not particular success or ratings.

The day Klentak gets fired is the day we'll know Middleton is impatient (or McPhail is trying to save his own job). If they do fail to land or trade for anyone big this off-season that will be a big strike against the plan. Gabe flopping would be another. The recent draft picks not working out another. But I sure hope everyone is still right where they are 13 months from now or it will mean 2019 was very disappointing indeed.

[andyb]

The veterans this team added in free agency added 5 wins. It is really the kids that did not step forward collectively. Hoskins was good, but not as good as his rookie season. Crawford and Kingery provided nothing. Herrera and Altherr took steps back. Williams and Alfaro were about as expected but not better. The back end of the rotation was surprisingly good for half a season but then faded.

The solution for this team is probably a bit of a shakeup. The farm system is not going to provide much immediate help. There is some pitching depth, but really beyond Sixto (a huge injury risk) there are not too many game changers. The hitting is generally lower end prospects (Haseley and Moniak do not look like game changers, Bohm and Garcia are far away) and really not going to impact that much.

With a mid-level system with most of the talent in the low minors, this team is going to get better by making the major league roster better. That is probably done with a combination of high end free agents and trades. The high end free agents are game changers the minor league system cannot provide.

Waiting for this young team to get better is not the answer. The young core we have is flawed and we don't seem to believe in some of the players with the most potential like Crawford. With a mid-level system and a flawed young core, patience is the wrong answer. This team can compete next year. It just needs to shuffle the deck because clearly we had a bunch of mis-matched pieces this season. If we wait till 2020 and do little we may be a .500 team with a mediocre farm system. We have financial resources. We need to use those resources to make the team better now or the window to compete might go away.

[zambonir]

ICYMI, Kapler and the Phillies really believe in the pitchers and their FIP.

Gabe Kapler: Phillies pitchers have been done in by sloppy defense

There will be lots of changes and several big moves. To me the big questions are do you keep Hernandez, what do you do with Santana, and how much can you expect from Arrieta? Other possibilities - punting on Franco, bringing back Ramos, dealing Herrera under the right circumstances - are less pressing.

But you can't really do any of it until the Machado or Harper shoe drops. The former affects the entire rest of the infield except for 1B and the latter affects the entire OF as well as, potentially, 1B.

And so it begins:

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

[Jay_Baller]

Fire Klentak. Fire Kapler. Yesterday.