2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[Austinfan]

Morton was the guy we signed who didn't last a month.
Or are you all going senile?
Yes, if he stays healthy he can be a very good pitcher, but looking at his entire career, that's a huge "if."

Eickhoff had 41 good starts as a Philly, then he had that weird arm injury.
He has plus secondary stuff, and be effective as a middle rotation starter if he's 100%, a huge "if."

Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez have stuff as good as Morton, are 25-27 years old, had FIP in the 3.75-3.80 range last year. They'll also have De Los Santos, Suarez, Irvin, Anderson and Romero in AAA this year, with Medina and Seabold in AA.

Now would I sign Morton to a two year deal? Sure. It's an insurance policy we can afford financially.
But would I then trade one of the three young arms?
Not unless someone makes an offer I can't refuse, because I want to go six deep in SP if Morton and/or Eickhoff are 1 of the 6 and Arrieta is another.

[EDmuch]

AF, you are going senile. He was INJURED, you know just like Eickhoff whom you seem to have forgIven for his injuries. The big difference between them is that Morton has recovered from his injury well enough to be an all star caliber pitcher for TWO years in a row. Eickhoff is still trying to grip his fastball. Yet you dare to compare them ????? And it is not that Morton "can: be a very good pitcher. He in fact IS A VERY GOOD PITCHER. Eickhoff has never shown the ability to throw a 3.13 ERA with 200 k's in a season.

Morton gave an interview in September where he specifically stated he wanted to pitch only one or two more years and that two was his absolute maximum.

[zambonir]

NYC, you just put Eshelman's name in AF's mouth is all. Though I'm sure at some point he was all for pitching Eshelman instead of signing Arrieta last season.

Morton reinvented himself during, and after, he was with the Phillies. He made mechanical adjustments (with McLure) that upped his velocity and then more adjustments (no doubt analytical) while with Houston. He would indeed be the second-best pitcher on the team this season unless and until Pivetta's results match his FIP. Sure, if you can steal him by leveraging his age, regional connections and lack of interest in signing a long-term deal, why not. You could always get your lefty in July (maybe even Hamels ).

I agree you don't have to trade someone, I just think they are going to want to trade someone. Include a starter or one of the AAA guys in your Santana deal, for instance.

I'd love to see Eickhoff come back but he's still 6th or 7th on the depth chart. His current health history is more troubling than Morton's, even with youth on his side.

[Austinfan]

Maybe Morton's last two seasons means he discovered the fountain of youth in Houston (though I wouldn't drink out of any fountain in Houston), but one should remain skeptical.
I'm not against signing him, I'm against assuming you can count on him as a major piece of your rotation and trade one of your young SPs before a replacement is lined up.

Eickhoff is just a weird situation, he certainly isn't someone I'd rely on.

I had no problem with the Arrieta deal, I had problems with those ready to give him a 5 year deal at big money, the same way I wouldn't give Corbin that deal this offseason. And we've seen how the Darvish contract has worked out so far.

[tom81]

By the way, a big NO to me on Segura. Do some research on him and you'll find a bad clubhouse guy with a reputation as a player hard to get along with and with anger issues. There is a reason he has been traded 3 times in 4 years.

Talented? Indeed. Worth bringing in with so many young impressionable players? Not to me.

Do we really know CD? I’ve seen some good stories about him too.

http://sports.mynorthwest.com/469751/how-jean-segura-has-stepped-up-as-a-mariners-leader-with-cano-out/amp/

Hopefully the people we have in place can make a good informed judgement. We know Machado has issues too.

[allentown]

I think CD may well be right on this one, but I don't really care which of you is right about Segura's attitude and clubhouse presence. First, I want to see Crawford given a full, fair, at least up to the trade deadline chance to win the full-time shortstop job, before cosigning him to utility IF status. Second, I don't want to lay out resources to trade for Segura. This year's DP duo should be Crawford and Kingery. That gives us our best defensive IF. If we want our pitchers to throw ground balls and pitch so that batters ground into the shift, then you have to field guys who can turn those grounders into outs at high proficiency. Giving up on your top prospects prematurely is as much a sign of a failing organization as is failure to develop them to their full potential.

[andyb]

That is kind of where I am though I know the risk of playing 2 young middle infielders. Crawford is probably better than 50% likely to be a better player than Segura was in a couple of years if not this year. He already has a higher career OBP and a .350 OBP should be easily attainable by Crawford.

I just think the organization has no confidence in him playing well or staying healthy. It would be perceived as a huge risk if they gave him a major role going into Spring Training. Like you, though, I would prefer to address areas where we have holes and no solution (like a big bat). Of course I would take Machado and rearrange the pieces around him if it came to that also.

Playing the first half of the year and assessing needs at the All Star break for trades is also not the worst strategy. We only plugged holes at the trade deadline last year. We did not pursue any game-changers (knowing that Cabrera would give up as much defensively as we got offensively and that Ramos was hurt at the time of the trade). We could always save our prospects now and be prepared to trade them at the deadline if it came to that.

[zambonir]

This year's DP duo should be Crawford and Kingery.

But it's probably going to be Machado and Hernandez.

[andyb]

Andrew Miller rumors once again:

Jon Morosi (jonmorosi)

Morosi is definitely throwing a lot of Phillies rumors out there. The Phillies have been interested in Miller over the years. 2018 was an injury filled year (knee, hamstring, shoulder) so there are clearly yellow lights flashing. His velocity was off a bit but he missed so much time it is hard to tell if it is injury or age related.

Would he be a candidate on an incentive-laden deal? Probably not a 2-inning guy any more, but he still can miss bats and we really have little from the left side (starter or reliever).

[Philsmania]

Andrew Miller rumors once again:

Jon Morosi (jonmorosi)

Morosi is definitely throwing a lot of Phillies rumors out there. The Phillies have been interested in Miller over the years. 2018 was an injury filled year (knee, hamstring, shoulder) so there are clearly yellow lights flashing. His velocity was off a bit but he missed so much time it is hard to tell if it is injury or age related.

Would he be a candidate on an incentive-laden deal? Probably not a 2-inning guy any more, but he still can miss bats and we really have little from the left side (starter or reliever).

Pretty much every rumor involving every significant name will involve the Phillies this winter. This past weekend, Carfado was trying to manufacture something about the Phillies and Stanton.

[allentown]

When Middleton announced that he planned to spend a little crazily this winter in order to field a winner, it was natural that the Phillies would be linked to every possibly available player -- agents love this, it gives reporters something to write, and other GMs wanting to trade a guy love to link the player to an 'interested' big-spending team to stir interest from other GMs or at least to push them along to make an offer sooner rather than later. As the off-season progresses, the odds of a FA getting a good deal or the GM getting a good return for the player he wants to trade. We're still early in the off-season, but getting a good deal sooner rather than later does away with the risk of having to settle for a poor deal. We're a foil in a lot of other people's machination at this time. Most of the rumors are highly unlikely to come to fruition; they were never intended to.

[zambonir]

I stayed in a hotel this past weekend, and I looked at 10 different rates and properties before booking. Talking to agents is pretty much the same process. We know the Phillies want to sign at least one veteran late-inning reliever; there's no reason to think they won't talk to every single one of them, however briefly.

What we probably won't ever hear a rumor about is a 2B or 1B (unless it's a multi-position guy).

[andyb]

The only reason to highlight Miller is that the team has had interest in him over the years. And the healthy Miller certainly fits the image of flexible high-K late inning relievers that the industry has been moving towards. Remember that the vision for the future is starters going 3-5 innings and flexible relievers (often multi-inning) handling more of the game.

Add to that our limited current options from the left side and you have a rumor where I would think the Phillies have something like a 1 in 3 shot of signing him. He is probably a guy that will sign for heavy incentives too, and may not wait till he is the odd man out at the end of the winter as he is clearly not going to get anything near what he would have received a year or two ago.

[bigegypt0417]

Phillies look at FAs beyond Harper, Machado

[zambonir]

This would seem to be why they might want to move on from Neshek too. He can't pitch multiple innings or consecutive days.

[andyb]

Kikuchi looks like he will be posted on December 3rd. Needs to be done by 12/5. Posting starts a 30-day window to sign him so basically all of December.

Yusei Kikuchi to be posted for MLB teams: Everything you need to know about the...

[andyb]

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

Also, Braves get Donaldson for 1/23. Scratch one 3B option off the list. Probably a good deal for the Braves given they are also a low payroll team that wants future financial flexibility to sign their own players.

[fish]

I'm reluctant to even bring this up because it can't be true...right?? I guess i have to get used to the idea that they will pursue anyone they think will make them better, even if they don't fit, or if it means playing someone else out of position.

Jayson Stark (jaysonst)

[andyb]

Well I guess we all thought the Santana rumors could not be true with Hoskins. Maybe we can field a lineup almost entirely made up of first basemen. Goldschmidt at 1B, Hoskins in LF, Santana at 3B!

[zambonir]

It really makes you wonder how they feel about Hoskins long-term, or do they just think he is still a year or two away from carrying a team? Even so, keeping him in LF doesn't seem like the best thing for his development.

What is also telling about that rumor is they probably will trade a member of last year's rotation one way or another.