2018-19 Phillies Off-Season News/Notes/Discussion

[nycphils]

I think Charlie Morton is a likely acquisition on maybe a 2 year contract - he apparently lives in the area and wants to pitch at home according to what I’ve read. Add to that Machado or Harper (yes, I’d take both if we can get them), a versatile guy like Marwyn Gonzalez or Maybe Josh Donaldson for 3B/LF and a LH reliever like Britton and I think we will contend.

[EDmuch]

Bryce Harper doing a nice interview on ESPN College Game Day.

[allentown]

I think Charlie Morton is a likely acquisition on maybe a 2 year contract - he apparently lives in the area and wants to pitch at home according to what I’ve read. Add to that Machado or Harper (yes, I’d take both if we can get them), a versatile guy like Marwyn Gonzalez or Maybe Josh Donaldson for 3B/LF and a LH reliever like Britton and I think we will contend.

I view this as unduly pessimistic. We actually contended for 2/3 of last season. We faltered when fatigue set in on a young pitching staff and Klentak's deadline deals proved as successful as Ed Wade's were. The Phillies core is better than it is given credit for. I don't see much value in replacing our own players with mid-level vets. What we lack most is stars. There are some positions (such as lacking a LHSP) where a mid-level guy would help. Add Machado and/or Harper and that mid-level LHSP and I think we contend right to the end and probably reach post-season. We don't need Marwyn Gonzalez. I second Andyb's hope for Machado, Brantley, and Kikuchi. Get them and I'll happily go with our existing crew, which looked so good for most of last season.

[tom81]

I second Andyb's hope for Machado, Brantley, and Kikuchi.

Just to go on record, Id like one mega FA contract and either 2 mid FA contracts and one trade or 1 mid FA and 2 trades to fill OF, 3B or SS, LSP, & LRP.

These 4 would work: Harper, Segura, Kikuchi, and Britton. Other combinations would too.

I would stay away from the 30+ players, Morton, Brantley. Make the exception for Britton.

[California_Dreamin]

allentown...I agree with this assessment. I have mentioned on several occasions that I felt the Phils actually turned the corner in the 2nd half of 2017 when they played a bit over .500 [think it was 38-37] to finish the season.

With basically the same core of youngsters they were leading an admittedly weak NL East till early August. Then came all the veteran additions, and in my opinion we witnessed a "subtraction by addition" situation, where guys who had done nothing to turn this franchise around were suddenly replacing guys who actually had done the heavy lifting. I do not believe the lackadaisical play of the final 7 weeks was coincidental, I believe it was a direct result of bringing in older, mercenary non stars who had no vested interest in the Phils fortunes, other than to fortify their upcoming free agency numbers.

Bringing in a mega star like Harper or Machado will take lots of the pressure off of younger talent like Williams, Alfaro, Quinn, Kingery and Crawford, not to mention Hoskins. This is perhaps the most interesting and unique off season since probably 2002 when we all knew the Phils were in play for guys like Thome, Glavine, Bell and Millwood. I think it is fascinating that the 2002 team finished with the same 80-82 record as did this club and with the proper off season additions [ 3 of the 4 guys I mentioned] the start of the organizations competing and winning began the following year.

[California_Dreamin]

By the way, a big NO to me on Segura. Do some research on him and you'll find a bad clubhouse guy with a reputation as a player hard to get along with and with anger issues. There is a reason he has been traded 3 times in 4 years.

Talented? Indeed. Worth bringing in with so many young impressionable players? Not to me.

[Austinfan]

I don't think the Phillies need to do that much, and they shouldn't be giving up a lot of assets in trade from what is still not a top farm system. This team really isn't situated for a "win now" offseason.

Signing Harper/Machado would be a big step.
Adding another OF and trading Santana.
Signing someone like Happ who wouldn't block Irvin/Romero/Suarez etc.

Not much else. Bullpen depth is obtainable by signing a bunch of guys to small bonuses and bringing them to TC, one or two usually surprise, we're talking back of the pen unless you sign a premier guy, and is it worth it with SD/Neris?

If you make the Franco to SD trade, then you sign a veteran 3B as a bridge to Bohm.

[nycphils]

Irvin and Suarez aren’t guys to worry about blocking. JoJo might be, but not at the expense,of someone good.

[zambonir]

I like Gonzales as an alternative to Brantley or Donaldson. They can only sign so many position players. Even if Santana and Franco are traded you've still got Hernandez, Crawford and Kingery, plus Quinn and Williams vying for OF time. I think they are still going to value positional flexibility, and hopefully defense too (though that doesn't always go together).

But of course it's impossible to figure this out until we know whether they get either Harper or Machado.

If Morton wants to come back so badly that it's a great deal, and you flip one of the other pitchers in a trade, I guess that's interesting, but a RH starting pitcher doesn't seem like a priority to me.

I don't think the team was that good last year though. The pitching absolutely was. But nearly every position player remains either a question mark or a longer-term project. They're not gonna replace them all but they are going to come pretty close to replacing half of the starting 8.

The thing to watch is still catcher, IMO.

Also, it's interesting, if not surprising, that Neshek and Hunter are available. They probably don't want to have 3-4 relievers who can't be optioned (a free agent and Luis Garcia, for now, being the fourth. Also Morgan can't be optioned).

If they sign Machado there is probably not a "bridge to Bohm." Just a bridge to Manny playing 3B in three years.

[Austinfan]

I think Garcia is gone, too inconsistent, too old, and too many young RPs on the verge of making the Show.

Morton is worth it only if he's willing to accept a swing man role, in which case you deal Eickhoff or move Velasquez to the pen/trade him.

I don't trust Corbin, always wary of players who have anomalous performances in their contract year.
He pitched 200 innings in 2013, broke down, he's pitched 389 innings the past two years, you pays your money and you takes your chances.

Grienke would be a waste of money and a SP spot, at this point in his career, is he really going to be better than our young pitchers the next three seasons? We have a solid SP group and a lot of young pitchers behind them, spending big on a RH SP at the end of his career is a waste of assets.

Improve the offense, improve the defense, don't mess with the pitching staff other than low cost tweaks.

[nycphils]

I don’t understand your love for mediocre prospects and marginal big leaguers. If Eickhoff gets some starts and shows something, great...however, you don’t pass up a real major league starter l8ke Morton (or anyone else like that) because he curtails Eickhoff’s opportunity (or Suarez, Irvin, Eshelman, etc).

[zambonir]

Morton is far better than a swingman. He's your #2, better than Arrieta, probably. But, obvious concerns about his health and age. I wouldn't want to carry him and Arrieta in 2020 whereas having a lefty is no-lose. I would also view Houston's refusal to give Morton a QO as a red flag, even if they are thrifty.

You gotta think the team's approach to pitching is going to be different this season too, especially after what we saw in the playoffs. You can't do that every day (as Gabe learned the hard way his first week on the job) but adding a starter while still hanging onto everyone and using one of them (Velasquez? Eickhoff?) as a middle reliever/"opener" might have merit.

They can also add a starter at the deadline of course. If they do sign someone like Happ maybe they won't need one. But if they don't, and one of the younger guys falters and another is injured, they will need one. Last year's rotation really did pitch above its head for a while (particularly Eflin) but was also incredibly lucky health-wise.

[allentown]

Yes, they can always add a SP at the deadline. But, then it is costly in terms of prospects. Today, all it costs is $ for a non-QO guy like Morton. And we are so far under the cap that the money literally means nothing to the 2019 Phillies. If they add him, not that he's my first choice -- which I've listed above, and they don't look to make the playoffs, he's tradable at the deadline if healthy.

If anybody regards Eshelman as having MLB value, then he's no longer a Phillies player, as he's available in the Rule 5. I think Irvin is more than Eshelman and Eickhoff.

[zambonir]

Not sure why NYC even threw Eshelman in there. The only names that matter now are Velasquez, Eflin and Pivetta. Which one do you trade or demote (to the bullpen, or AAA if there are options) if you sign a Morton? Or a lefthander.

Eickhoff is filler/depth. The other guys can all stay in the minors.

Kikuchi is certainly interesting. Won't be cheap (Boras, new rules) but still younger and you'd probably get him for a few more usable years than a Happ (or Morton).

[nycphils]

I don’t think you read what I wrote very carefully. What I said was that those guys - Eickhoff, Suarez, Eshelman, etc. - are in fact JUST FILLER and therefore there is no reason to defer signing real starters to preserve a shot for them.

[allentown]

Not sure why NYC even threw Eshelman in there. The only names that matter now are Velasquez, Eflin and Pivetta. Which one do you trade or demote (to the bullpen, or AAA if there are options) if you sign a Morton? Or a lefthander.

Eickhoff is filler/depth. The other guys can all stay in the minors.

Kikuchi is certainly interesting. Won't be cheap (Boras, new rules) but still younger and you'd probably get him for a few more usable years than a Happ (or Morton).

We will add a SP, hopefully a LHP and hopefully one who costs only $. Eflin, barring a great ST or injury to another pitcher, is destined to be optioned to Allentown. A team needs a 6th SP, because injuries will happen. It's not totally fair to the guy in the #6 (and #7) starter-in-waiting role, but this role is an absolute necessity. One of the two guys in this role can be in the Phillies pen, but one needs to be fully stretched out by starting in Allentown. That's life in baseball. Kikuchi is the first choice. Morton, on a short deal, could be the second. Happ on a very short deal could be second. I don't worry about Kikuchi's cost at this stage in Phillies' development.

I do worry about the PhillySports current article suggesting that we aren't far enough along in the development to sign a Harper or Machado, but we should consider trading significant prospect talent for one of next year's FAs at this year's trade deadline. Now that would be a horrendous waste of resources.

[Austinfan]

Uh, have you checked Morton's career?
He's had two good years, before that, 2011 is the only season he posted a decent WAR, 1.9 (BR).
Decent FIP in 2012 and 2013 when he pitched.
Now maybe at age 35 he's mastered the secret of durability, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Eickhoff put up a 3.6 WAR in 2016, then his arm got weird.
If healthy, he's similar quality to Morton, a back of the rotation guy who can give you a solid year, but you don't want to depend on them.

The difference is Eickhoff's stuff is more suited to starting, Morton could be a valuable bullpen piece when you don't need him to start.

I don't see either pitcher as superior to Eflin, Pivetta or Velasquez, all three of which have higher upsides.
So I see them as 6th starters for depth, if you don't want to depend on your Lehigh pitchers to start the season.

[EDmuch]

Charlie Morton was an All star this year with a 3.13 ERA and 201 strike outs. To compare him to a nobody like Eickhoff is to be blind to reality. Ludicrous, truly ludicrous.

[EDmuch]

Morton was not a "back of the rotation" starter. He was No. 3 on the AL West Champion's roster. deleted pc, mod.

[andyb]

I think Charlie Morton is a likely acquisition on maybe a 2 year contract - he apparently lives in the area and wants to pitch at home according to what I’ve read.

His wife is from Delaware and he has mentioned the desire to be closer to home. He has also said that he is not sure how long he wants to play. Thus he might be a guy who would actually prefer a 1-2 year deal. Makes him intriguing because he would be our number 2 starter. That would let us trade one of the three young starters (Pivetta, VV, Eflin) or just hang onto starter depth. Something in the $15 million range for 1 year might actually do it for him.