2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[andyb]

Not sure we can assume Kingery is any good at playing CF. We don't have a lot of evidence of that last year and he does not have the arm for it either. Altherr and Williams are also both fast enough for CF (faster than Herrera for instance). Harper is a bit slower but was also faster than Herrera.

[nycphils]

McCutcheon and Harper are centerfielders only in the sense that they have stood in the position before and could do so again. Neither is an actually good idea at this point based on available evidence.

[LoneStarPhan]

Big difference in being able to play CF a hand full of innings during the season as required over starting and playing regularly. McCutchen, Harper, Kingery, Williams and Hernandez can do the former but if a CF needed to start and play regularly for an extended time, they would bring someone up from the minors or get someone from outside the organization.

[zambonir]

A lot of the "fake news" was deliberately leaked information as well as clickbait (both true for politics as well I guess).

For all we know the Phillies' offer was smaller in some way yesterday and the SF/LA rumors pushed them to the end. In reality, it sounds like LA was never interested except short-term and SF must not have gotten to the bigger number (or they wanted to defer). From all reports their GM didn't even want him.

Re: Herrera, as with every time we talk about trading a pretty important player, you have to assume it would be a good trade. Obviously they can't afford to play all those guys in CF if all else is equal and you don't want to make a bad trade.

But let's say the Giants, for instance, suddenly decided they were interested in one of our OFs. They offer you a prospect for Williams. They offer you Bumgarner for Herrera (pretend this can actually happen and Bumgarner is 100% healthy) I'd gladly take my chances with less reliable CF defense to upgrade the rotation like that.

[Austinfan]

If Kingery can play SS he has enough arm to play CF.
And he has plus speed.
The only question would be instincts, but he has OF experience.
Herrera was a converted IF.

[zambonir]

Phillies now tied with Nats in PECOTA projection. 89 wins.

BP Depth Charts

[andyb]

He does not have enough arm for SS though according to most scouts. And we have no clue as to his instincts. All we know is he has speed and that is not enough to know if he is any good out there. He could easily be worse than all our other alternatives (Quinn, Herrera, Altherr, Harper, McCutchen, Williams in descending order of likely proficiency). Now Williams has a poor track record in the corner, but is almost as fast and has a better arm, I don't know if Kingery is better than Williams defensively in CF. He might be. He might not be.

The days of Kingery being the teacher's pet and getting playing time given to him are over. He'll need to perform to avoid a AAA option which still might be the best thing for him long term until there is a spot at 2B, a position we know he can play.

[allentown]

Could he really play SS, though? He played mainly SS last year to a slightly negative dWar, although his dings seem to have come mainly at 3B. A lot of the time he was the 'SS' he was actually standing at 2B with the shift. Let's say his rWAR has a SS dWAR component that is dead neutral.

[zambonir]

Still don't understand Kimbrel, but now that the 2nd-round pick is gone, losing the 3rd-rounder doesn't seem as onerous (as was also the case last year).

Phillies' Interest In Kimbrel, Keuchel Limited To Short-Term Deals

[xogfog]

Don't sleep on Kimbrell, he still has his stuff, he had a little issue with tipping pitches late last season otherwise, the rising hi-90's fastball is still there as is the knee-buckling curve. Add him to the Phillies bullpen and it goes from a good bullpen to a great and deep one. The game is now more focused on the bullpen than ever. If there was better left-handed starter on the market than Keuchel, I would look there, but other than that, adding Kimbrell might be the quickest ticket to the World Series.

[zambonir]

He would certainly make the team better but I'm not convinced he's fine (and neither were the Red Sox). If he wants to take a one-year deal, sure, great, but the problem is you can't pick up money trading Hunter or Neshek or Nicasio without it still counting against your tax and nobody would give you anything for them knowing the situation.

I don't go into the tax - or even give up the 3rd rounder - for a relief pitcher unless he's a steal. And while he's surely not getting that six - or even three - year deal he wants, you probably still have to beat the QO (which either means $18 million one-year or $30 million two years). Also, while this could also change, supposedly Kimbrel wants to close, period, and that's not a good fit for the Phillies with their depth (or good strategy).

I think a reliable LH starter, even a 4th or 5th starter, makes almost any team better than an extra bullpen arm, but it definitely makes the Phillies better.

I wouldn't touch either of them though unless it's bargain basement. Save the $ to pick up deadline acquisitions.

[el-pietro]

Yeah Keuchel probably adds more value right now, but maybe there is a trade for a lefty with a year or two of control that helps the team more.

Robbie Ray is the player who jumps out but I'm not sure what he'd cost. Hes under control for this year and next and his salary is pretty reasonable at 6M. Hes also a clear upgrade over the backend of our rotation and could put us over the top in the division.

Would some combination of Eflin/Velasquez/Altherr/Williams and maybe a minor league starting pitcher get the job done? Say Eflin, Altherr and one of Enyel De Los Santos, JoJo Romero or Ranger Suarez? Is that fair? Is it too much? It feels like I'm just bundling together excess players and I don't know how much value that has for Arizona.

[andyb]

The bullpen is also a strength with Robertson and even Nicasio added (a really good bounce back candidate).

If we need help there I would want to wait till midseason. Keuchel is more intriguing. Just don't think he'll want a 1-2 year deal.

I basically stand pat, maybe move an OF at this point. Let's see how good this team is first.

[bigegypt0417]

I do like the idea of another starter but Kimbrel on a short deal really does give us a formidable back end of the bullpen.

[julio]

I basically stand pat, maybe move an OF at this point. Let's see how good this team is first.

I agree that standing pat at this point is reasonable. That said, Klentak obviously should (and will) continue to talk to other GMs; any opportunity that comes along to improve the roster, by dealing where we may have excess (an outfielder, a pitcher) should be explored. I don't see an urgent need now, but you never know.

[andyb]

We could flip an OF for a utility guy I suppose, especially if Quinn is hurting. I don't think the powers that be have much confidence in Walding or Sean Rodriguez winning a job. Could easily trade for a better version of that with some team that wants to dump a little salary.

[Austinfan]

A RH SP with a good 2 seamer and changeup that tail away from LH hitters can be just as effective against a LH lineup as a LH SP. We've seen that with Nola.

So a good pitching coach could be more valuable than a mediocre LH SP.

Keuchel has had a significant home/away split that favors his current park, in CBP he might be exposed.
The good news is he has no velocity to lose, a tad over 89, so you're betting on him regaining his plus slider, without it he's meh, with it he's a 2/3.

However, with the young LHs coming up (Suarez, Irvin, Romero) it doesn't make sense to make a long-term commitment to Keucel.

[julio]

So a good pitching coach could be more valuable than a mediocre LH SP.

Yeah, I don't know whether Klentak can land a good pitching coach straight up for Aaron Altherr.

[tom81]

Robbie Ray is the player who jumps out but I'm not sure what he'd cost. Hes under control for this year and next and his salary is pretty reasonable at 6M. Hes also a clear upgrade over the backend of our rotation and could put us over the top in the division.

Would some combination of Eflin/Velasquez/Altherr/Williams and maybe a minor league starting pitcher get the job done?

I disagree on including either Eflin or Velasquez for Ray. Ray was injured last year and I think including one of our starters is too big a risk. I also am not convinced that he is a clear upgrade over either Eflin or Velasquez.

[andyb]

Keuchel has had a significant home/away split that favors his current park, in CBP he might be exposed

Not last year. Was roughly the same home and away. And historically Minute Maid has been pretty neutral. It showed up as a huge pitcher's park in 2017 because they had a dominant pitching staff and these calculations do have some variability. But over the past 5-10 years Minute Mail has been pretty neutral and CBP has ranked outside of the top 10 for runs (not HRs where it is near the top).

Park factors are decidedly NOT a reason to not want Keuchel. Saying some right handers can get left-handed hitters out is also not a reason. The decision is much more about spending for a small 1-2 WAR upgrade with what have in addition to the small advantage of being able to deploy a left-handed starter against left-handed lineups that have trouble with left-handed pitching.

Most likely the biggest source of Keuchel's splits is he just pitches better at home. It is not the park.