2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

I wouldn't trade Williams or Herrera -- this is a big year for both, and I want to see what they can do. I agree with those who think we need to work on how we get around these warm-weather muscle pulls.

Does warm weather cause muscle pulls? I doubt the Phillies are more injury-prone than any other team if you go over years of data. Obviously Quinn is an exception. Who knows, Herrera's injury might be because he trained so hard in the off-season, while Hernandez was already recovering from an injury for a long time.

I won't mind hanging on to Williams, but that means at some point Aaron Altherr is probably getting released or traded. Unless Quinn never comes off the DL (or Altherr himself goes on it).

[bkeich]

That post was written before we had Harper. "other available players" instead of him.

Literally like 1 minute before. The plan sure changed fast.

[andyb]

Who knows about the injuries? I am actually intrigued in a baseball sense of keeping Williams and going with the heavy hitting lineup of Williams, Cutch, and Harper in certain situations. Quinn double switches in around the 6th or 7th inning in that scenario. Williams was also a pretty good PH but I really don't want him wasting away on the bench starting once a week.

[julio]

Quinn double switches in around the 6th or 7th inning in that scenario

Yeah... In June, if he recovers well from the oblique strain, and if nothing else crops up. I'm not going to hold my breath.

[zambonir]

Of course there are far more RH pitchers than LH pitchers so in theory you'd want to play Williams for Cutch sometimes. But they probably won't.

At this point it's gonna be like Hernandez, they're not gonna trade Williams for nothing. And a package is probably too much to ask for this late in the off-season. July seems more likely. By then we'll also know if Quinn could actually play, and how Herrera's doing.

[Austinfan]

Harper is not a CF, Quinn can't be trusted to stay healthy, so Herrera is our only viable option until Moniak or Haseley are ready.
But McCutchen and Harper in the corners is an upgrade defensively over last year, if Herrera can bounce back we can have an above average defensive outfield.

Hernandez
McCutchen
Harper
Hoskins
Realmuto
Segura
Herrera
Franco

Now it all comes down to the young SPs, if they take a step up we're the favorite.

[julio]

Harper is not a CF, Quinn can't be trusted to stay healthy, so Herrera is our only viable option until Moniak or Haseley are ready.

It's not ideal, but McCutchen can still play CF if he has to. He didn't a lot in 2018, but he was there all season in 2017... and Altherr can also play there.

[zambonir]

I don't think Herrera is tradeable in March either, unless you just wanted prospects, and you'd be selling low. Now, if someone valued him highly enough to give you that LH pitcher and a 4th OF who could play CF, sure. But it's a low-probability scenario.

[andyb]

We'd be talking about an occasional 6 innings behind a pitcher that gets a lot of ground balls (Nola, Eflin potentially) to get 3 extra AB from a left-handed power bat. That is how Kapler supposedly manages. You design a lineup for each different situation and I don't expect that to change.

[bkeich]

I don't think Herrera is tradeable in March either, unless you just wanted prospects, and you'd be selling low. Now, if someone valued him highly enough to give you that LH pitcher and a 4th OF who could play CF, sure. But it's a low-probability scenario.

But we now have a problem, Quinn, Williams and Altherr cannot all make the team. I think Williams has options left, but honestly he probably is the best of the 3 (although I am not as enamored as some about him, he needs better pitch recognition).

The good news is well, lets be honest, we will probably end up with Quinn on the DL for most of the year.

Altherr is the one that I think you really dont want to sell low on, he is a very good athlete and he has looked like a good player more than a bad player the last 3 years (although it always seems to be an extreme with him). He would be a very good 4th OF on a team in my opinion, can play all 3 positions and has pop. I hate to give up on him.

Williams to LHV may be what happens, but honestly, he deserves better. He has earned a spot on the ML roster, but we just dont have space without some type of trade (or injury)

[zambonir]

It's true they can demote Williams but I just don't see that happening. You either trade him or release Altherr or Quinn makes the whole thing moot for a few months.

Or you could - GASP - have a five-man bench.

[andyb]

Right now our best bench with everyone healthy is Knapp (or new catcher), Kingery, Williams, and Quinn. 5th player would more likely be a utility guy than Altherr. Walding potentially. Altherr if an OF is hurt. It is looking more likely that he could be on the bench for the first few weeks for somebody.

Williams is the best pinch hitter of the bunch. Maybe Quinn if you are leading off an inning but otherwise that would be Williams.

We also debated who is the best backup 1B and that would be another way to get Williams in the lineup occasionally with either he or Harper playing 1B to give Hoskins a day off every couple of weeks.

[LoneStarPhan]

Need that 26 man roster in effect now.

Williams was a decent pinch hitter last season, if I recall correctly. They do need a left handed bat for the bench, so maybe Altherr is the odd man out. Maybe he could be packaged with a relief pitcher or just moved somewhere for a low minor league prospect or two.

The bigger thing to not lose sight of now is that the starting lineup will have four new to the Phillies players and figures to be a good improvement over the lineup last season. I think there will be more stability this season. A regular shortstop and having Hoskins back at first make the Phillies a better team in the field. McCutchen and Harper become fixtures in the outfield corners. I think Herrera can bounce back and along with Quinn, I see hope that centerfield will be okay. Improved fielding helps the pitching. Robertson is a very solid addition to a bullpen that is filled with arms that could turn out to be a real strong point for the team.

[allentown]

Does warm weather cause muscle pulls?

No, warm weather should provide some protection against pulls. A muscle pull is more understandable in an April night game in the north. But you knew that.

As for too many OFs, what are the odds we don't start the season with one on the DL, since Herrera and Quinn already hurt?

[andyb]

The OBP for this lineup will be a huge improvement. Harper and McCutchen are better than anyone we had last year (we had 3 guys in the 350s with Hernandez, Santana, and Hoskins). Harper was .393 and Cutch was .368. Then we improve at catcher (340 vs 324 for Alfaro) and SS (341 vs 267 for Kingery) and we suddenly have a really high OBP lineup top to bottom. Franco could be the worst hitter in the lineup depending on whether Cesar is healthy.

Pretty good lineup and lots of options at CF so expecting some improvement there whether it is Herrera or Quinn.

[zambonir]

Knapp (or new catcher), Kingery, Williams, and Quinn. 5th player would more likely be a utility guy than Altherr. Walding potentially.

Right, the five-man bench lets you keep Williams. The four-man bench should be Knapp, Kingery, Quinn and an IF/utility guy (Walding or Sean Rodriguez, if not someone who can play SS since Kingery can and Quinn maybe can).

[andyb]

Need that 26 man roster in effect now.

Latest talks have than on tap for next year (2020). Bigger changes like the pitch clock would not be until the next collective bargaining deal which would be starting in 2022.

[flyers19rw]

If Herrera can settle down at the plate, his fielding should improve to be more than adequate since he doesn't have to play CF and half of LF any longer.

[Austinfan]

The only viable alternative to Herrera in CF is Kingery, who was an OF before he converted to 2B and has the speed to be a plus CF.
Altherr and McCutchen can do it on a spot basis, but lack the range to start there.
Harper, don't even bother.
Given the offense on this team now, a plus defensive CF is a must.

Quinn, at this point you just can't count on him staying healthy, even if you got two great months out of him, you'd be waiting for the next injury.

[schillingfan]

Amazing, though, how much just plain misinformation was circulating out there.

Welcome to these United States of America in 2019. Misinformation has always been with us; social media is an incredible accelerant - like pouring gasoline on a two-alarm fire.

For the most part I have read what social media reported but trusted none of it. I always believed we were getting Harper, though admittedly the past couple of weeks were making me nervous. But all these people on twitter posting they didn't want him if he didn't want us based on all the rumors, what do they say now? Memories will be short I'm sure.
Anyway glad we got him, glad I didn't waste much emotion over it and looking forward to the season!