2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Austinfan]

I'm not giving up Eflin/Pivetta for Roy. Both have more upside.
Velasquez I might consider b/c De Los Santos is similar except probably more durable, but I'm wary of Roy,
While last year was probably injury marred, his three FIPS before that, 3.53, 3..76, 3.72.
169, 174, 162 innings those three years. Averaged 5.4 innings per start.
Then 24 starts, 123 IP last year - more of a 6th starter in the sense you can't write him in for 32 starts and 200 IP.

[schooldoc]

I'm not sure my two cents will be much different than anyone else's about the Harper signing....but since this has been one place I enjoy checking in to hear opinions, I wanted to share.

When the Phils visited Harper in Vegas in January, I started feeling pretty confident that the Phils had a chance to get him. I had the confidence all the way up until Monday, when I heard that the Dodgers were getting involved, and then midweek when I heard the Giants were getting heavily involved my confidence got even lower. So, there I am tweeting yesterday morning pretty much blasting the Phillies for blowing this. Imagine my surprise (and glee) when this news broke yesterday afternoon.

I really want to thank and compliment ownership and the front office for getting this done. They sensed the urgency of the moment, and showed the willingness and the ability I was no longer sure that they had to step up to the plate and get this mega-deal done. And not only did they get it done, but they got a deal done on terms that I think benefit both Harper and the Phillies. As we all know, spreading out the AAV keeps them in the market in future free agency markets without much concern for the luxury tax. A super-long term deal of 13 years will be somewhat painful on the back end, but it should be mitigated by the eventual addition of the DH in the NL. And even in year 1, that $10 million salary they're paying Harper leaves a ton of room for that rent-a-pitcher the Phils will probably need to add in July. (Bumgarner?)

Harper is such a great fit for this team at this time, both on and off the field. They had to do it.

This changes EVERYTHING. Baseball in Philadelphia is officially back.

[schooldoc]

I hope, at least for a while anyway, the Phils can hold on to a spot for Nick Williams. Of course, there are the current injuries to Odubel and to Roman Quinn to keep in mind--and at least in a pinch, Nick can play a little center field. He is below average there, but probably grades out better than McCutchen and certainly Harper in center at this point in time.

But assuming the injuries are minor and at least one of these guys (likely Odubel) is ready to roll on Opening Day, I see a way to get Nick 50 starts or so this season. Between resting Cutch and Harper a combined 25 times or so, spot starting him in center, and with the DH spot available in AL parks, it can be done.

Also, it would be nice to have a pinch-hitting threat with pop from the left side available in the late innings most games. Albeit in a relatively small sample, Nick showed some affinity for that role last year.

Sure, they might need to use Nick as a trade chip this summer. But for a while at least, let's keep him around and see how he fits in even on this new-look team.

[bigegypt0417]

Kevin Negandhi on Twitter

[zambonir]

We could flip an OF for a utility guy I suppose, especially if Quinn is hurting. I don't think the powers that be have much confidence in Walding or Sean Rodriguez winning a job. Could easily trade for a better version of that with some team that wants to dump a little salary.

Or maybe package Neshek and Williams for a major league piece and a prospect.

I seriously doubt a Robbie Ray type deal can happen this late in the season, once a team gets to spring training on guys like that they have decided to reap the benefits of having the player and the benefits of the deadline.

I kind of think we're overlooking the 40 as well as the 25 with any further free agent fantasies. Of course there's always someone semi-fungible but if you sign Keuchel you probably have to release Eickhoff or Anderson (or trade one of the other current ML or AAA starters).

And with Kimbrel I just don't see giving up the draft pick, taking on his salary, and either waiving a younger reliever or shouldering $2-4 million to unload Neshek or Hunter (I think they should do the latter anyway, but not while doing the other two things).

And if you sign Kimbrel it is really unlikely you could acquire Bumgarner, Hamels or Greinke in July (not that Greinke's doable anymore anyway).

[andyb]

I think people rank us as having one of the top bullpens in the league now. Neris recovering his value and adding Robertson really adds to a pretty good finish last year. The left-handed starter makes more sense than Kimbrel and even there Harper takes us to the point where we may not need it.

I kind of want to take our $18 million of luxury tax room and see if we need to fill it at midseason. If there is a taker for someone like Neshek or Hunter that would be great, but I also don't see the need since there will always be reliever injuries to give us a few players to rotate in our out. And we'll create the injuries if we have to. Every pitcher has a sore arm at some point during the year. We'll just schedule our sore arms every 15 days!

[xogfog]

Regarding the infielders, you have Henandez, Franco, Hoskins, Segura as you starters, with Kingery as a utility. Who gets the 6th infielder spot, or with they just go with those five?

[andyb]

Regarding the infielders, you have Henandez, Franco, Hoskins, Segura as you starters, with Kingery as a utility. Who gets the 6th infielder spot, or with they just go with those five?

Might depend on Quinn who can be an extra infielder in a pinch. If he is hurt you would look at Walding or Sean Rodriguez among those in camp. There are a bunch of mediocre middle infielders too (Romine, Ngope, Petit, Gosselin). Plouffe is also hanging around. 4-man bench with Quinn has none of them. 5-man bench could have one. Hard to see Altherr with a job with this mix of players unless they want to use Williams' option (even though he is clearly the best hitter of the bunch).

[zambonir]

Yeah it doesn't seem like they have any minor-league IF candidate who is so solid defensively (i.e. can play SS as well as all the other spots) that they would carry such a player (who would also be light-hitting). This puzzle might still be missing a piece, as they figure out what do about Altherr and/or Williams.

Franco and Herrera sure look a lot better in this line-up now that they are at the bottom! Realmuto really cinches that as much as Harper.

[flyers19rw]

i'm not ready to consign Eickhoff to the junk pile and give him away quite yet. Its an if, and no one will know how big of one it is until we start playing serious ball, but if Eickhoff can be the '16 version when he was healthy and not the one one the last two seasons with him being hurt, he's definitely the #3 SP in the rotation. People forget how he out pitched Cole Hamels after the trade. He was that good.

[zambonir]

He was that good but he is like Quinn at this point. Not so much injury-prone as, he suffers from a chronic injury that will never not bother him (or so it seems so far).

At some point it just becomes math, look at all the pitchers they kicked to the curb last year who were younger and cheaper? He only survived because of the 60-day DL. When the time comes you are going to cut the soon-to-be 29 year-old not one of the AAA pitchers.

And that's just the 40 - can he even be sent down if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training? It would be great if he pitched so well that the Phillies were forced to send down Eflin but I'm not betting on it.

[julio]

And that's just the 40 - can he even be sent down if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training? It would be great if he pitched so well that the Phillies were forced to send down Eflin but I'm not betting on it.

If my records are correct, ALL the starting pitchers on the 40-man roster have at least one option year remaining. Arrieta, because of his service time, has the right to refuse such an assignment, but nobody else has reached that threshold (five years service time).

[zambonir]

Oh well that's good. Eickhoff just never got sent down at any point in the last three seasons I guess?

[andyb]

And the "how good are they" article from ESPN. Author has their baseline as 84-88 wins. Unfortunately he does not expect much improvement on defense (he has catcher as a wash, and McCutchen and Segura as only average while using Harper's bad stats from last year to suggest he is not as much of an upgrade though I still feel he can be close to average).

Potential improvements would be more in the starting rotation where we have depth but not quality beyond the top. Bullpen should be solid without Kimbrel.

Article is hopeful for the future, but mainly because more spending is possible (i.e. there is room for Trout with Harper's low AAV).

With Bryce Harper, are Phillies favorites in division, entire NL or more?

[LoneStarPhan]

Game today against the Rays illustrates the cost of bad fielding. Eflin starts off with a walk and then gets a tailor made double play grounder to short, but Kingery fires the relay to first way off to the base to NOIT get the second out. Third hitter grounds out to short but it's only the second out, not the inning ending third out it should have been. End result, Eflin gives up an earned run and throws a number of extra pitches in the first inning. NOT making easy, routine plays in the field takes a toll on the pitchers. IMO, this sloppy play in the field was a primary factor in the late season collapse last season.

Now I hope things are considerably better this season and I think they will be, but gosh, it's getting old. I keep hoping that Kingery is not the bust he has been so far in his ML career.

Phillies tie game in bottom of the first and now have bases loaded with one out. Rays making pitching change.

In top of second, Phillies continue to score and now have 3 runs in, bases loaded with two out. Two singles followed by 3 walks brought Kingery up with bases loaded, one out. He worked full count and then K'd swinging at ball four (previous 3 hitters had walked). Phillies score again on an infield grounder where runner beat throw to second, ruled a FC.

We hear much about teams keeping players in the minors a little longer to get that extra year before free agency and it is generally looked upon as being something bad. I wonder if the Phillies shouldn't have done that last year with Kingery. His spring last year made him look ready, but as we have seen, he sure needed another half year or so in AAA. I sure hope he will come into his own this season.

[allentown]

I still think Kingery can be a good 2B. As I recall, the story from the time he was drafted was that his arm isn't good enough for SS or 3B. I hope the Phillies aren't repeating last season's failed attempt to turn him into something he isn't meant to be. He's supposed to have speed, a good bat, and good D at 2B. Why can't that be enough? And yes, Kingery wasn't ready last season, but they gave him the contract. The problem with Kingery this year is that we still need a utility IF who can actually play SS and 3B. I fear that if Kingery gets significant time at those positions in 2019 that our IF D will stink once more.

[andyb]

It is kind of amazing how little 2B he played last season when Cesar played half the year with a broken foot. I know he was (supposedly) needed at SS much of that time, but one would think we could have gotten a 10-20 game look when Crawford was back.

[zambonir]

It's amazing that the baseball culture which allowed Cesar to play is still a thing. Kapler was like, "he couldn't get hurt worse and he was ready to go, so he played." But he wasn't good.

Kingery is why I think it's funny people get all excited about Cozens or Walding or Haseley after one week of ST, when even an entire ST performance doesn't necessarily translate in April.

[LoneStarPhan]

There are always those players who have a hot spring and in some cases more than one hot spring, but never really get more than a quick look in regular ML action. However, it is always fun to see them having the good spring and sometimes it really does end up being a lead in to making the big team and contributing.

[zambonir]

It's fun for us! But the front office certainly seemed to make a very aggressive evaluation of Kingery based on one hot spring. He had a body of work too, of course, but the AAA performance suggested more patience. Just seems like Kapler's gut feeling and the opportunity to get him cheap overrode analytics, as well as what was best for Kingery and the 2018 roster. Some of that was also bad luck of course. We'll never know what he might have done at the plate if he also hadn't been forced to play SS .