2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[bigegypt0417]

That is an organizational failure. Free agents sign largely for money. We have lots of it. We claimed we wanted one of these free agents. We would have failed to get them if we don't sign Harper. We have traded organizational strength to win now on a team that does not appear good enough to win now.

So how about if it isn't money? How about if the philles are the highest offer and harper still picks someone else?

Is what you're saying just keep bidding up?

[Patchmk88]

If we are the highest offer at the end of the day, Harper will pick us. That is the name of the Boras game. If he picks someone else it is because they matched or beat our offer.

I still can’t believe the majority of aphilladelphia fans are buying into a conspiracy that Harper doesn’t want to play here because he hasn’t signed and that he is using us to get the West Coast teams to bite. Wrong - Boras is using every team and every rumor out there to get the best offer he can. Whoever offers that at a point where Boras doesn’t think he can get much more is going to get Bryce Harper.

Our management passed on offering Machado 315 million and has gone all in on Harper. If they don’t get him after talking a big game and making win now moves without making us a World Series contender then yea this front office has failed.

[Taudawg]

There has to be a limit. You go to your limit and stop. If that's not enough so be it. I think we will find out in about two weeks

I see holes on all the NL East teams, so the Phils could and should be in the race through June. If not, Harper probably alone wouldn't have made the difference - something else went wrong. A lot can change between now and June - Injuries, prospect performance, etc. I really don't see an East team winning 95+ based on current construction. The sky is not falling.

[kmc1019]

Here's why missing on Harper would be crushing to me:

10 years ago a winning team and the sellout crowds they drew made Philadelphia a baseball heaven.

Winning and large crowds are long gone. A decade of near-absolute failure in the draft (Nola, Hoskins are the exceptions) and a prolonged rebuild that has never truly arrived has yielded a team that is not a championship contender as constructed. With the farm system devoid of blue chip prospects and with a scarcity approaching zero of star free agents to sign in coming years, the likely outcome is at least 5 more years of mediocrity and a perpetually half-empty stadium in South Philly that is a far inferior fan experience than what we had and what should be the norm for a large market team.

"Stupid money" means a franchise lost in a wilderness of mediocrity for too many years acknowledging that it must leverage its assets ($$$) to overpay for stars when competing with more preferred destinations.

We had "it" in Philadelphia. And the team's front office - both old and new regimes - blew it. After missing or passing on Machado and with only a single-digit percentage chance that other stars such as Trout or Betts actually make it to free agency AND choose Philadelphia, losing out on Harper all but ensures the lost decade will continue indefinitely. And that is heartbreaking.

[Jazzhead]

Some folks are just pessimistic by nature. We can contend in our division this year with the changes we've already made. And if we were to pivot to sign Kimbrel, we'd have a monster bullpen that would rival the Yankees. I have no issue with paying money to contend and win. We must sign Realmuto, for example, to an extension. But Harper isn't some baseball god - he's a talented but flawed player, who over the life of a ten year contract will play right field at best, first or DH at worst. His production can be replicated for far less than $300 million.

[andyb]

So how about if it isn't money? How about if the philles are the highest offer and harper still picks someone else?

Then this organization miscalculated their strategy this offseason and probably should not have made so many "win now" moves. Free agents are largely about money and the quality of the organization historically. And if the Phillies have not made themselves into a quality organization maybe it is their own fault. Maybe players don't want to play for someone like Kapler. Maybe they hate the analytical micromanagement. Maybe they see the mediocre drafting. Sometimes you make your own bed and can't blame others on the consequences.

[Philsmania]

If we are the highest offer at the end of the day, Harper will pick us. That is the name of the Boras game. If he picks someone else it is because they matched or beat our offer.

I still can’t believe the majority of aphilladelphia fans are buying into a conspiracy that Harper doesn’t want to play here because he hasn’t signed and that he is using us to get the West Coast teams to bite. Wrong - Boras is using every team and every rumor out there to get the best offer he can. Whoever offers that at a point where Boras doesn’t think he can get much more is going to get Bryce Harper.

Our management passed on offering Machado 315 million and has gone all in on Harper. If they don’t get him after talking a big game and making win now moves without making us a World Series contender then yea this front office has failed.

I do agree that not going to the mat against the Padres for Machado was a tactical mistake. We still had a good offseason though.

Kapler will have the opportunity to prove his managerial chops. I'm sure the local and national media will label the Phillies' offseason a failure and that the Phillies are not good enough. If that is the case, Kapler should take a page out of Fregosi's '93 scrapbook and Pederson's 2017 scrapbook and really let the chip on the shoulder motivate them.

[Jazzhead]

There has to be a limit. You go to your limit and stop. If that's not enough so be it. I think we will find out in about two weeks

I see holes on all the NL East teams, so the Phils could and should be in the race through June. If not, Harper probably alone wouldn't have made the difference - something else went wrong. A lot can change between now and June - Injuries, prospect performance, etc. I really don't see an East team winning 95+ based on current construction. The sky is not falling.

This is common sense. Free agency is perhaps the least efficient way of building a team. At the deadline, there will be plenty of talented players available in trade.

[LegoDoom]

We've corrected the major issues that affected us last year - players out of position, poor defense -

Who is the new manager?

[andyb]

Free agency is perhaps the least efficient way of building a team.

That is not correct when it costs only money that you may not otherwise use. It is hard to say free agents are less efficient than dealing prospects. Now free agency is not efficient if it is the ONLY way you are trying to build. We are not talking about that though. Remember the Phillies had roughly a $90 million profit the last couple of years as their franchise value has doubled in recent years.

[Jazzhead]

Then this organization miscalculated their strategy this offseason and probably should not have made so many "win now" moves. Free agents are largely about money and the quality of the organization historically. And if the Phillies have not made themselves into a quality organization maybe it is their own fault. Maybe players don't want to play for someone like Kapler. Maybe they hate the analytical micromanagement. Maybe they see the mediocre drafting. Sometimes you make your own bed and can't blame others on the consequences.

What malarkey. That Scott Boras and Bryce Harper won't take our money doesn't mean we're not a quality organization. Heck, I call the whole episode a win for successfully getting Harper out of the division. Every move we made this offseason made great baseball sense. So we gave up one blue chip prospect - just one - in exchange for the best catcher in baseball. That's failure? Then I hope we keep failing.

[allentown]

team

Well, it once again is the Phillies being out of tune with the market. What was described as a 'stupid money' quest for a star, ended with pulling out of the Machado bidding at below market rates. SD didn't sign MM for 'stupid money' -- the Arenado contract shows that SD's deal was on market. We were outbid in a year in which many of the big spenders were effectively on the side-lines, although I guess this means Harper to Dodgers. The dropping the ball was with MM. We don't know about Harper at this point. But I see the inequality [Our concept of 'stupid money'] < [Other team's assessment of market value], We've seen this time after time over the years. I had hoped Middleton was different.

We've cleaned out a lot of our top young talent to make a push in 2019, without having added the requisite FA WAR. That's how rebuilds die. I agree with AndyB, if these reports are correct, this off-season and the Phillies overall rebuild strategy aiming at this off-season, have been failures. We're where the 76ers were pre-PROCESS -- good enough to have an outside chance to compete for a WC, not good enough to be favored to win a WC or advance in playoffs, and too good to get any more primo draft picks. Plus another year without all our draft picks, so the farm sinks lower. I think Kimbrel would be a mistake. At this point, there aren't good 'consolation prizes' for not getting MM or Harper.

[zambonir]

My comments on Trout are only in relation to the report that he won't reach free agency. If that is the case it will be because he's still an Angel. It is literally not possible for anyone, even Trout, to currently know what combination of a waived no-trade clause, a trade the Angels would accept and an extension would produce any other result.

I guess we can dream that a year from now he tells the Angels to either meet his number, trade him to the Phillies or he'll leave for nothing (i.e. he won't approve any other trade) but that sounds pretty far-fetched (and while I'd be happy to have him, anyone who doesn't like Harper now shouldn't like that either).

Other takeaway today: Scott Boras is good at his job. And if the Phillies passed on Machado because they were sure they'd get Harper, then yes, they really really screwed up. And if one of these teams is offering $330 and they are not willing to go $350 they also screwed up. After that, sure, maybe walk away. But if the two very smart people who run the Dodgers and SF are reacting to market forces by stepping up, maybe the Phillies need to step away from their "valuation" too.

OTOH, if the Giants owner is signing Harper over his GM's objections I don't really mind if the Phillies aren't doing that.

We'll see. Nobody knows anything.

[bigegypt0417]

team

Well, it once again is the Phillies being out of tune with the market. What was described as a 'stupid money' quest for a star, ended with pulling out of the Machado bidding at below market rates. SD didn't sign MM for 'stupid money -- the Arenado contract shows that SD's deal was on market. We were outbid in a year in which many of the big spenders were effectively on the side-lines, although I guess this means Harper to Dodgers. The dropping the ball was with MM. We don't know about Harper at this point.

Again...if the numbers out there are true then they weren't out of tune for anything...unless we find out differently the Phillies offered the largest contract in the history of the sport. SD did spend stupid money if no one came anywhere close to that deal...the Phillies seems to have beaten that deal with their offer to Harper.

What am I missing? I understand an emotional response but ignoring the information we have isn't really helpful...

[zambonir]

Heck, I call the whole episode a win for successfully getting Harper out of the division.

The Phillies didn't get Harper out of the division. He was already gone. Nothing the Phillies did had any affect on the Nats. Beyond that, check back when we're losing to him in an NLDS series I guess.

(Also if the Giants get him this probably takes Bumgarner off the table as a Phillies deadline option.)

Of course the Phillies could win the NL East still. They could be the 2016 Twins. And the Mets could lose all their pitchers and the Nats could still disappoint and the Braves could have a sophomore slump. But I would rather have a team that could more plainly outperform all three of those teams even if their seasons break right.

[bigegypt0417]

The giants signing Harper in no way makes them a contender. They finished 4th in their division last year and are still the 4th best team.

There is no doubt the Phillies are a better team now than they were last year...their moves have made them possibly the best team in the NL East.

[allentown]

their moves have made them possibly the best team in the NL East.

I seriously doubt that.

[bigegypt0417]

their moves have made them possibly the best team in the NL East.

I seriously doubt that.

if not it makes them close. Obviously I would like Harper to sign but I'm not going as far as to call the entire off-season a failure over it.

[zambonir]

I certainly don't see the Giants as a contender this year but I also don't know if the Phillies will be among the five best teams in the NL over the next three seasons.

We can certainly wait for them to play the season to pronounce it a success or failure. And there will be OFs or 3B available in July. But if they end up as an 85-win third-place team, was that really worth the Segura and Realmuto trades? That's something we also won't know for sure until 2021 or so. And if this is not a playoff season the Santana and Arrieta signings (and loss of draft picks) will have accomplished little (except for forcing us to give up Crawford to get the M's to take Santana).

[Taudawg]

Nothing is done. This is all just further speculation. Isn't it interesting how there is all this new activity of "leaked" information just as things were reported as close with Phils??? Dodgers and Giants had been very tight lipped before now...did they all of sudden decide they should share their strategies? What would they gain from that? Same with Phillies and the opt out, and chances being remote now. This all smells like Boras using reporters. I don't think any team is talking to reporters about this. If they are, they really should rethink how they conduct business.

The 3 year opt out not being sellable to fans sounds like Phillies strategy. If I'm the Phillies, I'd jump at a 3 year opt out and hope he takes it. Either way, I can't see it as a deal breaker if Middleton insists on winning in 19.