2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

the Phillies offered the largest contract in the history of the sport.

What's the source for this exactly? I mean, I know there have been "reports" but we don't really know what they have offered or what's been turned down. And if they aren't actually the current highest bidder then by definition they haven't offered the largest contract in the history of the sport.

[bigegypt0417]

the Phillies offered the largest contract in the history of the sport.

What's the source for this exactly? I mean, I know there have been "reports" but we don't really know what they have offered or what's been turned down. And if they aren't actually the current highest bidder then by definition they haven't offered the largest contract in the history of the sport.

If it ends up not being true then we can discuss that...the rumors are they offered the biggest deal. Which at least to me means they didn't underestimate the market.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

If nothing else, this protracted negotiation process has made me eager for real baseball to start so that we can leave the rumor mill behind. I’ll root for the Phillies with or without Harper; maybe even harder without him.

Let’s get on with it and play ball.

[zambonir]

Well, I don't think that changes anything. If they get him, obviously, great. If they lose him because the number was too rich for their blood that means they were wrong to walk away from Machado. And, arguably, wrong to make a series of moves over the last six months (including both what they did do and what they didn't do) and last three years that were all geared towards this free agent class. And if next year's class starts to vanish further they were also wrong to think "there's always next year."

Of course they've still improved the team. And I know a lot of us are too reflexively negative about the front office, based on years of moves by previous front offices. But I definitely remember a lot of those years where the team was only going to be good if you chose to be optimistic about every single player having a better or even career year, and it rarely ever worked.

That's what I think these Phillies would need (from Herrera, Williams, Franco and even Hoskins, as well as several SPs), while also hoping that Nola, Segura and McCutchen aren't worse. I assume Realmuto will be fine and Hernandez will do his usual if healthy. Not a debate we actually have to have for a few more weeks.

But if they do lose him it will also look like a mistake not to sign Corbin or Happ (since Keuchel costs the pick). Would also be kind of annoying to sign Boras's pitcher if they lose Harper too.

[Austinfan]

What exactly did we trade away?

Crawford - who doesn't look much better than Galvis right now (and we got De Los Santos for Galvis), maybe he learns to hit, maybe he becomes the defensive SS he's supposed to be, but he just turned 24, he's not "up and coming" anymore. We have a hot shot LA SS who may pass him two years.

Sanchez - he may become a #1 starter, or a closer, or be out of baseball in two years. High upside, high risk.

Alfaro - turns 26 in June, when does promise become "what you see is what you get?" So far he's had an unsustainable .405 BABIP, if it drops to say .340, he's a .225 hitter. I think his defensive metrics last year were "fool's gold," the eyeball says he's not fundamentally sound. There's upside, but he's at an age where upside becomes more of a tease than a please. I doubt he's ever more than an average ML catcher.

Stewart - a promising LH SP with at best similar stuff to Suarez and Romero but a year or two behind them.

They had value, but none right now were players you could build around.

In return we got two above average starters, Realmuto is 2 years older and more likely to out last Alfaro (because he's a real ML hitter), and Segura is 29. It's not like we did a bunch of 4 for 1 deals for 30+ year old players.

We also got McCutchen as a patch to Haseley and Moniak, and more bullpen depth including one of the best "LOOGY's in Robertson (great LH splits). We strengthened the defense in LF and SS. If Herrera is in shape, CF will be much better defensively - and shoring up the defense was the number one offseason priority. It was awful last year.

[zambonir]

I agree it was fair value, and that those guys may never amount to anything. But collectively the organizational ability to make future trades is now more limited, whether it's a simple deal to fill a hole or something big like Trout or another pending FA.

You can certainly argue Realmuto either way - that it was a hedge against not getting Harper or that it only made sense if you also got Harper.

As they say, that's why they play the games. If things break right we might have a WC that can contend for the East with some July moves. But with Harper I think it's a division champion that could contend for the NLCS with some July moves.

And if things don't break right it's basically a repeat of 2018. An 81-win team, give or take (probably give), where McCutchen and Segura and Realmuto merely keep the team stable and respectable, just like Santana and Arrieta, but all we actually learn from the season is who's not worth keeping.

[LegoDoom]

What exactly did we trade away?

If you think the team didn't trade much for 2 all-stars, then it shouldn't be too difficult to bundle those trades together with a few more pieces and get someone like Trout.

Either you undervalue the Phils pieces or other teams overvalue them. Either way, it still takes away former top prospects out of the Phillies system that was not loaded with a lot of top prospects.

Again, the trades look to put the Phils into the playoff race, but I don't see how the team is a serious contender to win a playoff series. They also don't have a great farm system and don't want to spend extra money for FAs.

They will be a better team than last year, but without a leap from Kingery and a few prospects, then I don't see a reason to be hopeful a few years down the road. And that is if we assume Nola will be as good as last year, which is a big assumption.

[allentown]

Crawford -- Our #1 prospect for a couple seasons. Jerked around and injured last year, because management chose Kingery as the going forward great and gave him a contract, although he had an awful year last season. Not at all sure Crawford had a fair trial and flunked.

Sanchez - Our top prospect after Crawford graduated. Great stuff. Is he healthy? If healthy a great shot at #1/2 starter. His risk comes from health, not from stuff or control.

Alfaro -- 26 isn't really old for a catcher. All indications that he improved greatly on O and D last season. Yes, his BABIP was high. We traded him for 2 years of Realmuto. Fine if we were adding MM or Harper and taking a strong shot at advancing in playoffs this year and next. We didn't get our star and aren't set up to advance in playoffs.

Stewart -- I don't know, I'm not as impressed as some are and he didn't make my top 15

This is the year the Phillies were always pointing at for signing a big FA. We didn't and that's a huge fail.

We are short of talent at majors and on farm.

If you are saying Crawford, Sixto, and Alfaro -- what had been the cream of our farm -- are somewhere between not much and crap, then our farm is grossly over-rated, we're in more trouble than I think, and you have zilch reason to assume our salvation is coming from Moniak and Haseley, although I do like Haseley. To me, it is bizarre to discount to just about zero almost all of our top-rated prospects and then declare that the solution is coming from the farm.

I don't see how the solution can be coming from the farm: we are rated lower half while Braves are rated top 5, we won't have our #2 draft pick this year, our international allocation (already in the lowest tier 3 amount) is reduced along with losing the #2 draft pick, we've been bombing on most of our top picks, and our development system is in turmoil with MANY key guys having been replaced, AND we are just good enough to not have a chance at 1.10 or better picks anytime soon. Seems grim to me. We have a $ advantage, but we've declined to use it.

[frylock]

Others have eloquently summed up my overall thoughts. It absolutely is a failure (IMO) if they don't sign Harper (who was my preference), but even beyond Harper, one of Harper/Machado.

Our rebuild has yielded a core of Nola and Hoskins (who took a step back, but I think will rebound). I'm optimistic about Pivetta and Eflin, but they're not locks. Aside from that, it's a veteran team, forcing us to win now. Farm isn't strong, so doubt we get any huge, impact players within the next few years. If they don't sign Harper to try to have an upper echelon offense to pair with a great bullpen and average to potentially above average starting staff (factoring in FIP to ERA with the improved defense), I see zero chance of winning a World Series. Sure, you may luck into a wildcard, but I'm not even 100% convinced of that. If they went 10/375-400 With a year 4 or 5 opt out and he opted to go elsewhere, fine. But the increase in that contract to secure him per year compared to what they're offering now, when compared to what % of their overall payroll/projected payroll that difference is, probably isn't so insane that it's worth sacrificing what I believe is a chance to be a legit contender.

I will always watch them on TV, but if they don't sign him and they end up as disappointing as I expect them to be (record/contention-wise), I can't go to games and support what Middleton / Klentak has sold us. The upgrades have made the bullpen good to great and the offense from meh to decent, but an average offense and starting staff and good bullpen probably puts us on the road to nowhere. And the age structure of the team I think has us looking more towards the next rebuild VS the next move to have this team contending.

[zambonir]

we won't have our #2 draft pick this year,

How so?

[andyb]

We have traded away future value (Crawford, Alfaro, Sanchez) for current value that may not be good enough to win.

Then in 2-3 years we have fewer prospects and the only way to compete is with cash. That is where you get into the trap of trying to build too much via free agency. All these trades were done in the anticipation that they would be bolstered by one of those 2 free agents. We might get lucky and all these deals work and we win anyway. But we also could see an 85-win season followed by an 80-win season as the team gets older and is not supplemented by young players.

[nycphils]

To have passed on Manny where could have paid $320m and gotten him in anticipation of getting Harper instead (which seems to be the case)...I don’t see how that can be anything but viewed as failure.

[allentown]

have

I think I had that one gone in my mind for Harper.

[andyb]

It will be gone if we add Keuchel or Kimbrel. Harper is good enough to justify it. Machado bonus of course was no draft pick compensation.

[julio]

It will be gone if we add Keuchel or Kimbrel. Harper is good enough to justify it. Machado bonus of course was no draft pick compensation.

Some of us are hoping that the Phillies don't "pivot" to Keuchel or Kimbrel just to have signed a free agent.

[andyb]

And I would be some of those. The left-handed starter I wanted was Kikuchi. Not saying Keuchel would not help, but after getting Arrieta I am not sure we need another older starter at this point. And I am happy with the current bullpen. We don't need a traditional closer when we have 3 guys that have closer stuff (Neris, Seranthony, Robertson).

One needs to pick and choose regarding compensation. It is another factor in the Santana move being a big mistake last year. That was a 3rd round pick and $500K of international signings we passed on to lose 2-3 wins on defense because we simply did not need a 1B last year.

[zambonir]

Right, I'll be happy if we lose the draft pick if it means getting Harper! Keuchel just doesn't seem like a good fit for reasons you mention. But Happ would have been. Giving up a pick for Corbin might have been (if they don't get Harper).

If Keuchel ends up with a one-year deal I might be ok with losing the pick. You can probably trade someone out of the rotation/AAA depth for the same value.

But this is another potential downside to not signing Machado or Harper. There was also at least a possibility that trading either Franco or Williams would replenish farm depth. Now we might instead be wishing that one of them can actually be a #5 hitter (while also wishing that Herrera returns to 2 or 6 form).

[Austinfan]

My point isn't that we didn't give value, but we didn't strip the farm system.

Alfaro and Crawford had already graduated, Alfaro should be judged as a ML player with a full season under his belt, and as such, I'd much rather have Realmuto, he has two years left, but it's much easier to sign your own FAs (they've settled into the area, hopefully like the team, etc.). Crawford was beat out by Kingery in management's eyes, I thought they rushed Kingery, but his upside is as good as Crawford.

Stewart and Sanchez are really what we lost (plus a bunch of #6 starters last summer in Lively, Thompson et al).
Sanchez is a top prospect, but not the same player as a year ago, the injuries started to mount, and that's a real concern with a young pitcher, especially a high velocity "smaller" pitcher.
Stewart, meh, he's a solid back of the rotation lefty, but we have them coming out of the woodwork - it's not like he's coming off a big year at Reading.and is close to ML ready.

So yeah, we lost two prospects, but upgraded two positions with players better than what we had, maybe Alfaro and Crawford will turn into above average ML starters, but what are the odds?

One reason you want a lot of prospects is to have the option of trading them.
We have a full stable of starters in AAA ball, and a full bullpen, we're gonna have to move some of them next winter.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Philly fans will not want to acknowledge this, but we make the national news all the time as obnoxious fans. Ran into Darren Daulton years ago and he even said some players would never come here as a FA unless they had no other decent offers. Said we were brutal on their families and hated putting their families through the BS.

This could be what impacts Harper.

[zambonir]

And yet. Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee. Raul Ibanez. Jim Thome. Even Carlos Santana.

If he takes a smaller contract it's going to be because of geography, not because fans in Philadelphia are mean (as opposed to in LA where they killed a guy). And if it's obviously the best contract, he's going to take it.