2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

Supposedly the Dodgers first started talking to Boras again two weeks ago.

Ken Rosenthal (Ken_Rosenthal)

Dodgers enter mix for Bryce Harper, who expects to make decision by the end of...

[schillingfan]

All true but you either define it by market-size or you define it by revenue. You certainly don't wit want to define it by payroll (though a floor would obviously help). Either way the Cards have been bottom 15. They are hardly the most egregious team to be in the bottom 15, especially if you go by market size.

I also don't think their regional reach is worth much in the cable/Internet era. You can't get their games on TV in several of the places you mention, and the Reds are also competition,

Baseball fandom used passed down through generations. All I meant is there as a lot of the middle of the country whose parents or older fans whose main access to baseball was the Saturday game of the week and superstation AM radio that carried a long way. All those kids with transistor radios under their pillows.

[zambonir]

Oh for sure, that's a whole other topic. And a whole other change. I could still pick up 1210 in Chicago when I was in college. But now you can live in Missouri and still have Bryce Harper be your favorite player, or the Dodgers be your favorite team, everything is national.

[frylock]

A little nervous about LA, but still think we get him.

[EastFallowfield]

Like to think the Phils could be the highest offer on a shorter than 10 year contract too.

[David_Criss]

It has been well reported that the Phillies are the only team with a record breaking long term offer and he still hasn't taken it. He is still talking with the Dodgers, who have been rumored to be in on a shorter term deal. It is beyond clear to me that he does not want to play in Philadelphia.

I have said before that I would be thrilled if dons a Phillies cap, but I have really started to sour on this kid. He is a right fielder. He isn't a top 10 player right now. Do we want to be fans of a team who has at least 25% of its payroll locked into one player who doesn't want to be in Philly?

MM at least came to visit Philadelphia and seemed somewhat serious about the possibility. The Phillies brass have gone to Bryce twice now.

[el-pietro]

It has been well reported that the Phillies are the only team with a record breaking long term offer and he still hasn't taken it. He is still talking with the Dodgers, who have been rumored to be in on a shorter term deal. It is beyond clear to me that he does not want to play in Philadelphia.

No one has reported on solid numbers. We have no evidence to believe they have offered a record breaking deal. We know they thought 300M was too much for Machado. They may be willing to spend more to get Harper but we don't know by how much if at all.
What appears to be the case is that the Phillies are the only team willing to go to 8/10 years, that has been consistently talked about since the beginning of the off-season though again not in any specifics. If they are the only team offering that sort of contract why should they outbid themselves?

From my perspective it looks like Harper/Boras are trying to push the Phillies towards some specific number which as of yet they have been unwilling to spend to. I don't know what that number is.

[Jazzhead]

The latest rumor is that Middleton has called Boras to give him and Harper 24 hours to accept the Phils offer, or we pivot to other free agents.

If true, it's about flippin' time.

[Jazzhead]

Good post, David Criss. It seems beyond obvious that Harper/Boras have been playing the Phils to set the market. Now the Phils are the only team left standing with a long term offer, and Harper either has to play here or admit his true motivations.

[allentown]

Do we want to be fans of a team who has at least 25% of its payroll locked into one player who doesn't want to be in Philly?

Even if we went to $35 million per season it would be less than 20% of the salary cap. My choice was MM and I'm sorry the Phillies dropped out, but I'd be happy to have Harper. We don't know that Harper doesn't want to play for the Phillies. What we know is that LA is his favorite destination -- it is close to home and it has Hollywood. Not being his #1 choice is not at all the same thing as not wanting to be in Philly. I'm quite sure that the Phillies aren't the #1 destination for players already on our 25-man roster. We have a lot of young players who had no choice of which team they are playing for. There job, just as Harper's will be if we sign him, is to play baseball for the Phillies. There is not need to have aa grand love affair with the city of Philadelphia. That really is negadelphia thinking -- if you don't truly love us, we don't want you on our team. If you don't believe me, answer this question: excluding guys who stayed for a broadcasting gig, what fraction of your favorite Phillies lived in Philly, or even Philly burbs, after they retired from baseball? If they really loved Philadelphia and the Phillies, they'd have remained local to be with the city and team they loved. Few did. This was just a team and city where they worked. It's their job.

I'm advocating to give Harper our last best offers (long- and short-term), if that hasn't been done and stop negotiating on total $. Dragging it out is a recipe for losing the negotiations. I want to draw the line, not because I don't want Harper, but because I don't want to be seduced into paying a lot more than the team thinks Harper is worth and I don't want to reduce the team-making time in ST.

[Taudawg]

I'm skeptical of 24 hour deadline rumor. I only see this reported in tabloid. I don't see any value in a deadline unless they plan to pursue other FAs. Just put final, best offer out and walk away. Maybe leak the details so everyone will know how much he's leaving on the table should he decide to accept a shorter deal.

No other FAs have my interest, unless they take 1 or 2 year deals. Even then, It would have to be a bargain.

[Lawman]

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (SportsRadioWIP)

So it sounds like Harper wants a 3 year opt out. Honestly, if I'm Philly, I give it to him.

[Jazzhead]

There is not need to have aa grand love affair with the city of Philadelphia. That really is negadelphia thinking -- if you don't truly love us, we don't want you on our team. If you don't believe me, answer this question: excluding guys who stayed for a broadcasting gig, what fraction of your favorite Phillies lived in Philly, or even Philly burbs, after they retired from baseball?

The point isn't whether Harper loves Philadelphia. It's whether he wants to play here. I just can't see it. We took action this offseason to improve ourselves at four positions, both offensively and defensively. We signed our ace to an extension, and fortified the bullpen. These are things that ought to motivate a player who wants to win. Yet the reality appears that we are a tool for Boras to set the market and nothing more.

I sure hope that 24-hour rumor is true. Get it over with, one way or another. Williams and Cozens are having a great spring. Sign Adam Jones to a one-year deal if we think we need more depth in the OF.

[bigegypt0417]

Zolecki and Salisbury are the only ones I'm listening to right now...heyman is a shill for Boras.

[el-pietro]

Agree with bigegypt. Heyman is a Boras schill. If hes saying the Phillies have offered over 300 then I'm going to take that as true and directly from Boras. It wouldn't suit Boras to inflate the Phillies offer unless he thinks he can bump the Dodgers or another up above 300 and that seems unlikely as every story has put them as wanting a shorter deal.

I'm assuming then that the idea that there are more than 300 offers is false. Who could these be from? Nats and White Sox are the only teams that stands out as possibilities but there has been very little talk of them in recent days and you'd expect Boras to be putting their names out there if they were still in the running.

As things stand I think he signs for the Phillies and all of this is designed to scare Middleton/Klentak into upping their offer, and the more of it we hear the more we should be sure they are sticking to their guns.

[andyb]

Sign Adam Jones to a one-year deal if we think we need more depth in the OF.

That would be ridiculous. The last thing this team needs is another right-handed bat.

I want this to be over as much as anyone, but that is more impatience than anything else. I am sure Harper wants to sign this week also. As with Machado it just took time to get competing high offers. It is completely within the player's right to want to get the biggest contract of his life done the way he wants it done. Spring Training is a few weeks too long anyway.

[Jazzhead]

It wasn't ridiculous when the Phils tried to trade for Adam Jones last summer. He can play center (at least he thinks he still can), and could be useful depth especially if Altherr (who I believe has no options) is traded or released.

I realize I'm in the minority here regarding Harper. There's just so much that can be done with $350 million (the latest rumored number I've heard the mercenary's been demanding). Pollack signed for $50 million; Hicks for $70 million, McCutcheon for $50 million. That's a whole All-Star caliber outfield in its prime for less than half of what Harper's demanding!

[fish]

So it sounds like Harper wants a 3 year opt out. Honestly, if I'm Philly, I give it to him.

I can’t decide if they should stick to their guns and hold out for a 5 year opt out, or if a 3 year opt out benefits the Phillies too.

[Squire]

My thoughts:

1. I still think we get Harper. No way Boras lets Harper take a shorter deal with someone else and lets rival agent Dan Lozano have the biggest and longest contract of the offseason

2. I'd probably be ok with an opt-out at year 3 (you're getting his age 26-29 years) but maybe I'd offer an opt-out at year 4 (which still beats Machado's opt out) and maybe a vesting opt-out after year 3 if he puts up 5 WAR in each of the first 3 years or something. EDIT: I am informed that you can't base contract stuff on statistics so I'd give him the opt out if he wins the NL MVP in any of the first 3 years.

3. If we don't get Harper I'd rather go to battle with our own guys (Odubel, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, etc.) then sign another +30 guy.

[el-pietro]

But they take up three spots. Harper takes up one.
Steamer projections for 2019 - Fangraphs War
Harper 4.8
McCutchen 2.8
Pollock 2.5
Herrera 2.0
Jones 0.9

You need three outfielders. Why not play Harper, McCutchen and another. We already have Herrera and hes not earning much (and his value is low). Assuming he is fit the starting outfield with Harper is worth 9.6 Wins. If you say harper isn't worth it, who do you get that can provide you 4-6 wins? Even if they had chosen to sign Pollock thats a far lower ceiling. Jones shouldn't even be in the discussion. Thats even before we consider that Harper is 26!!! He should be in his peak or near peak for then next handful of years. Maybe he declines after that but he won't reach Jones' current age until year 6 of this deal, he won't reach McCutchens age until year 5.

Hicks is exactly the example of why Harper is worth signing. He just signed a long term extension with his current club so the Phillies cannot offer him a deal. The same could happen with any of the potential stars we might want to sign over the next couple of years. Arenado, Trout, Gerrit Cole, or Chris Sale would all be great additions to this team but there is no guarantee they reach free agency and other teams may want to sign them. They would all also be older than Harper. Harper is available now and the Phillies have a relatively clear run at him.