2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Jazzhead]

(Post deleted)

[julio]

As an alternative, I think the Phillies have legitimate interest in Keuchel on a short term deal. Nothing I’ve read leads me to believe that they’ve considered pursuing Kimbrel. If Harper signs elsewhere, I think the Phillies might try to add another OF - I had hopes of Pollock being our plan B, but he’s now with the Dodgers. If Harper goes to LA, maybe we could swing a deal for Pederson who will be struggling to get AB’s.

I'm not sure it makes sense to forfeit a draft pick, plus $500k in international bonus pool, to sign Keuchel (or much of anybody) on a short-term deal. The odds of it not paying off (injury risk, non-performance risk, the club just not making the post-season, or losing a wildcard play-in) are substantial.

[el-pietro]

Is that "emotion", to want us to win with class acts like Cutch, Realmuto, Robertson and Segura and the young core we're developing?

In what world is Segura a class act? He has had bust ups with several team mates over the past few years. I get that you want to support players who are in red pinstripes but referring to Segura as a class act is a bit of a stretch.

[julio]

Harper's a talented player whose track record reveals a couple of great seasons and a few more that were merely good. He'd look great in our lineup, no doubt - but there's an opportunity cost to paying him as Boras demands, for 10-plus years at over $30 million a year. There's no sober analysis that can justify that number - Bryce's fanboys who do so are succumbing to emotion, just as I've accused of being when I dare call him a greedhead.

I'm a Phillies phan and season ticket holder first and foremost. So if they sign Harper I'll root for him as hard as anyone (and I've never, ever booed a member of the home nine). But as of noontime today, he's not a member of my team, and I can speak my mind - I don't want him. Yesterday Williams hit a three-run shot and Cozens launched one into a different zip code. And there's Haseley and Moniak on the horizon as well. Those are the players I want to see play, together with the amazing Andrew McCutcheon who combines class and talent in a way that'll make him the apple of the eye of this phanbase.

Is that "emotion", to want us to win with class acts like Cutch, Realmuto, Robertson and Segura and the young core we're developing? Darn right it is - but despite your high-falootin' attitude, Julio, it's emotion that blinds you too, in you demand that we pay Harper as if he's the hardball equivalent of Rembrandt.

Let's be clear on a couple of things here.

1. I didn't "accuse" you of succumbing to emotion - I just pointed out that you used a nasty personal insult with regard to Harper, and that if you were in the same (or equivalent) position, I suspected you'd behave exactly the same way Harper and/or Boras are behaving. Was I wrong in that? If Harper were your client, would you advise him to "take the deal," or to let the auction play out?

2. I haven't demanded that the Phillies "pay Harper as if he's the hardball equivalent of Rembrandt." I simply pointed out that he's the commodity up for auction in an auction market. Would it have made a difference if, instead of positing your auctioning a Rembrandt, I'd suggested a Jackson Pollack, or an Andy Warhol? In an auction, you wait for the end of the bidding; you don't satisfice - nobody does that.

3. Honestly, I don't think I've really taken a position on whether the Phillies "should" or "should not" sign Harper, much less that they "have to," or at what dollar amount it's "OK" or "too much."

I'm just watching it all play out - because there's no way to know what the outcome of this auction will be, and there's really no way to know how the season (or multiple seasons) will play out if Harper does or does not, become a Philllie. (And of course, because I well know that even if I did assert "They have to do this!" or "If they do this, I'm done with the Phillies!", that would just be venting - I don't have that kind of influence with the Phillies.) I've been a phan long enough to know that expectations tend to get dashed; there's a significant element of chance in any season, in any trade, in any signing. I'll take it as it comes.

[bkox]

He has had bust ups with several team mates over the past few years

And was pulled from the lineup for not hustling at least once

[el-pietro]

Exactly, I like Segura, I think he will be a very good player and exciting to watch, but in terms of attitude and off field behaviour I don't believe hes in the same category as McCutchen.

[allentown]

That's basically the definition of an ultimatum.

[julio]

Keep in mind also - Phillies fans were fine with Pete Rose, and with Lenny Dykstra. It's pretty clear that our fan base has no problem having selfish cretins on the roster. I don't have any reason to believe that Bryce Harper (or Jean Segura) is in the same "human trash" category as those two.

I won't comment much on the alternative cases - the players of good character, who never said a bad word about our fair city, who the fans nevertheless turned on for no apparent reason... except to note that this happens, too.

[bkox]

Phillies fans were fine with Pete Rose, and with Lenny Dykstra

Phans didnt know much about their character while they were playing. On the field they looked like all out hard playing players. Did you know in 93, Dykstra would be the creep he is today?

[zambonir]

Hee hee I'm not sure I even want to read this morning's posts. If you want to be annoyed by this whole Harper thing dragging out even longer you should be - it's annoying. But it's not surprising and I don't think anything's changed.

[allentown]

Rose was a very poor offensive 1B. Dykstra played well, both on offense and defense.

[allentown]

But it's not surprising and I don't think anything's changed.

True. This is SOP for Boras. But, at this point, either we are bidding against ourselves or being used to get more 4 from the Dodgers. The Phillies have apparently raised their offer via Middleton. At this point, I tell them that this 10 year offer is final and if you prefer a short-term deal, here is our best 4-year offer. Other than negotiating specifics after an agreement in principle on the $, I'd tell them that's it. Middleton should have been our last shot and if we offer more, the requests for more will be never ending. Except for an alternative 4-year option, I leave things as they are. On the first day of the regular season, if it isn't settled, I'd pull both offers.

[Philsmania]

Rose was a very poor offensive 1B. Dykstra played well, both on offense and defense.

I always thought that Dykstra was actually very slow for a centerfielder and a lot of his diving catches were out of necessity and that most other centerfielders would have gotten under them.

[julio]

The Phillies have apparently raised their offer via Middleton.

I don't know that we should assume that. The public statement - that Middleton's visit was about getting the Harpers comfortable with the Phillies ownership - might just be valid. We don't know.

What we do know is that, in taking such a public involvement, Middleton has (as others have noted here) essentially taken his front office staff (MacPhail, Klentak) off the hook if they don't succeed in this negotiation. He's taken responsibility - he's taken 'ownership' of the negotiation (regardless of who is talking to whom, and when).

But "raised their offer"? Who knows.

It's hard to just be patient and not get frustrated with the process - it's best to not get too invested in Harper - either "we need him" or "he's over-rated" or whatever. As with all roster questions, it's out of our hands.

I'm looking forward to seeing what McCutchen, Segura and Realmuto add to the club, day in and day out. If Harper is added - or if somebody else is - I'll look forward to that, too. But in the meantime... there's a ballgame to follow!

[bkox]

David Murphy (ByDavidMurphy)

[zambonir]

Found this exclusive picture of Boras's latest negotiaton

If the door is actually open for the Dodgers that just means the Phillies haven't offered enough, i.e., they know there is no other team bidding higher than $300 million (or less) so they haven't gone into that Stanton or record AAV yet. Now they can. That's all Boras is waiting for. This isn't about where Harper "wants" to play, it's the same as it ever was.

And if the Dodgers want to offer 3 or 4 years at 40 the Phillies could still match that in a longer deal with an opt-out without going to $400 million. Just have to frontload it, with cheaper out years that will probably never be paid unless he collapses.

The PR dynamic really is fascinating - I think two days ago if the Phillies hadn't gotten him the fan base would be freaking out but now there's two other bad guys, Boras and the Dodgers, to blame, and suddenly we're microanalyzing Harper's stats again. He is the exact same player - including any personality flaws - he was two weeks ago and a month ago (this tweet is from a month ago).

SPORTSRADIO 94WIP on Twitter

Once you've decided he's worth $325 million what's 10% more? Or you decide he's not worth it. They made that call on Manny so either they meant it and could do the same with Harper or they didn't mean it and they think Harper is worth it.

[andyb]

Still would be a lost draft pick. Dodgers lost their 2nd so like the Phillies last year Harper would cost their 3rd (and $1M total in international slots).

[Philsmania]

On the one hand, the Dodgers window of opportunity is open now but, on the other hand, the Dodgers always find a way to be state of the art and win.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I agree with your thoughts and approach. Our owner went there and met 1 on 1 or 1 on 2. For how long this has dragged out, I am pretty sure Middleton asked that the target stop moving so that a decision could be made. I want a guy that will look me in the eye and tell me what it’s going to take. I don’t agree with the never ending auction approach, for either party.

We should move on. The front office has had a great offseason for part 1 of the plan. Maybe Trout or another big bat is available next year or in trade. I like this team.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Much too reasonable and mature.

Stop it!

I agree with all but in negotiations, Middleton had to go to Vegas with the knowledge it would likely take more money.