2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[LegoDoom]

I think it should also be noted that Burrell's 1st year in the majors was when he was 23. Harper was 19.

Again, I am not the biggest Harper fan and would have preferred Machado, but is Harper worth 4/$160M? As insane as it sounds... probably. Would I pay 10/$330MM? Probably not. Is he worth it... I don't know, but he'll make the team a lot of money and it would lead to more wins, so I wouldn't be against it.

[Jazzhead]

The late-hour entrance of the Dodgers means that Harper has one long term option - the Phils - but doesn't want to play here. He's signaling that he wants a way out - he'll sign a short term deal, and that means multiple clubs will jump in.

I say let him go. The fanbase will understand - he doesn't want to play for us. This whole process has soured me on Bryce Harper.

[fish]

He's signaling that he wants a way out - he'll sign a short term deal, and that means multiple clubs will jump in.

But virtually any deal from Bryce Harper’s perspective will give him an opt out - that option was always going to be there for him. It’s the guarantee that separates his options.

[julio]

The late-hour entrance of the Dodgers means that Harper has one long term option - the Phils - but doesn't want to play here. He's signaling that he wants a way out - he'll sign a short term deal, and that means multiple clubs will jump in.

I say let him go. The fanbase will understand - he doesn't want to play for us. This whole process has soured me on Bryce Harper.

Wait a minute. The Dodgers flew personnel to Las Vegas to assist Harper in "sending a signal"?

I would have thought, if the Dodgers flew personnel to Las Vegas, that was because the Dodgers front office has interest in Harper, and was pursuing its own interests - not helping Harper "signal" something.

This comment smacks of a "Philadelphia inferiority complex," IMHO. Sour grapes, announced in advance of a feared negative outcome.

[Austinfan]

Problem is which Harper do you get, the megastar of 2015, or the 3.5 WAR guy of the last three years?
If it's the later, he's worth no more than $30M a year on a 5 year deal and less on an 8-10 year deal.

[jimbomill]

Bryce Harper was tied for 32nd in WAR last year...here are some of the players with a higher WAR than Harper...

Scooter Gennett
Aaron Hicks
Brandon Nimmo
Nick Castellanos

2017...again, tied for 32nd

That in your mind is worth 40 million a year?

Nope. Not worth $40M/year.

[David_Criss]

He is playing the Phillies hoping and praying someone else gives him a longer or better deal so he doesn't have to play here. At least that is the impression I am getting. Like a lot of FAs are realizing, teams aren't handing out mega multi year deals like the recently did. Wondering if Boaras is overplaying his hand. I say this again, with the understanding, I will be stoked if he is a Phillies uniform soon, but: is Bryce Harper more hype than reality? MM had to go to San Diego to get the money. Hope he enjoys not winning and playing in a spacious park, but god for him.

Harper has hit over. 300 twice in seven-years. I think he is more gritty and more of a player than MM and he is a lefty. I want to see him in Philadelphia, but there have been some inconsistencies that can't be overlooked.
Games played: 139, 118, 100, 157, 147, 111, 159. He is going to be counted on to play ever single day ala Freddy Glavis for that kind of money.
Batting average and homers: .270 22; .274 20; .273 13; .330 42; .243 24; .319 29; .249 34

At this point if I am the Phillies keep the $35-$37 million per deal in wait for Mike Trout.

[LegoDoom]

Is consistency not a reason to give a bigger contract? Showing the best years that these players have and ignoring the best year that Harper has had seems incorrect to me. What do you project these players to do over the next 5 years?

[andyb]

While BR has Harper at 1.3 WAR, Fangraphs is at 3.5 WAR even with a pretty bad defensive rating. Under any system Harper is consistently worth 4+ WAR on offense and projects to continue to be worth that much given his age (and last year was influenced by a low BABIP).

Defense is certainly a question for Harper, but it is not like there is a long history of bad defense. He was pretty neutral from 2013 through 2017 and some of the bad ratings for 2018 is because he played a lot of CF. Is Harper great on defense? No. Did he become risk averse and wall-shy in 2018? Yes. The step back view is that he has enough history and youth that one could easily see him being neutral to slightly negative on defense.

If he does that he is a 4 WAR player and his offense has been more consistent than he gets credit for when you account for the injuries. OBP does not take days off when the player still has bat speed (which Harper clearly does). A 4 WAR player is easily worth $30 million a year. He also might sell enough tickets to help pay the $$$ on the contract in terms of increased revenue.

[Jazzhead]

Julio, I don't fear the "negative outcome" of Harper signing with the Dodgers. I'm on record as being fearful of a 10 -year deal in excess of $300 million for this greedhead. If he signs here, I'll root for him and hope for the best. If he doesn't, I'll breath a sign of relief - and hope the club turns around and signs Kimbrel or Kuechel to a three year deal.

[fish]

He is playing the Phillies hoping and praying someone else gives him a longer or better deal so he doesn't have to play here.

Generally speaking I don’t typically agree with that kind of emotional assessment, but after flying out there again with what has to be the biggest offer, Middleton has to be feeling a peeved right now at what seems like a clear effort to shop their offer to other teams.

Time for a “take it or leave it” ultimatum, or is that too much of an emotional response? That really has to be what even Scott Boras is waiting for, right? To know when he’s extracted the last possible dollar?

[julio]

greedhead

Greedhead? His services are being offered in an auction market.

If you had an original Rembrandt, up for auction in New York City, would you stop the auction while bidders were still bidding, before the gavel fell, because you heard a bid that was "good enough"? If you were an agent or attorney to somebody who owned such a painting, would you advise them to do that?

No, I didn't think so.

[Philsmania]

By his actions, Middleton has taken McPhail and Klentak off the hotseat in the event that Harper does not sign here. I give him credit for that.

[julio]

He is playing the Phillies hoping and praying someone else gives him a longer or better deal so he doesn't have to play here. At least that is the impression I am getting.

Not to be too blunt about it... but the "impression" people get from what's reported in the public media in cases like this... that "impression" is largely a product of the observer's own imagination, and their own needs, wants, fears. It's not reality; we all need to be careful not to start "believing" that what we imagine is necessarily real, or even close to real.

This negotiation will go where it goes. If Harper signs with the Phillies, it will be at a large number, that many will consider to be "more than he's worth" - as if the wealth that accumulates to any entertainer in our society somehow correlates to the real value that entertainer contributes to our society... as if being entertained is more important to us, collectively, than educating our children or preserving our health, or our environment, or anything much, really.

[julio]

By his actions, Middleton has taken McPhail and Klentak off the hotseat in the event that Harper does not sign here. I give him credit for that.

This. This is the kind of thing that makes people want to work for somebody. No blaming the employees, no scapegoating. Leadership.

Not "If it goes well, it was only possible for ME to accomplish. If it goes south, it was that other guy's fault!"

[allentown]

Time for a “take it or leave it” ultimatum, or is that too much of an emotional response?

That would have been an emotional response a month ago. Today, with three ST games already played, it is an eminently reasonable response. I'd give him a 10-year and a 4-year offer, tell him to pick one or the Phillies are out. I think that gives his as much chance of signing Harper as continuing to allow Boras to shop other teams and a far better chance of not being bid up against ourselves. As the new guy, it's important for Harper to be here sooner rather than later. I don't begrudge him seeking the super deal or having a #1 preferred destination, but think we are now at the point where his 2019 value declines a little with each day he remains unsigned. If you are trying to assemble a TEAM, you need all members of the team to be present for ST. Baseball is less a team sport than football or basketball, but we have seen with the Eagles and Sixers how long it takes for a guy who parachutes in after training camp to integrate into the team. We saw the same with the Phillies 2018 deadline deals.

[julio]

It seems to me that a "take it or leave it" ultimatum only makes sense if you have a specific alternate course of action that you intend to follow if the answer is "leave it" - and particularly if that alternative is somehow time-constrained.

I don't think the Phillies have such an alternative in mind. Yeah, I've seen the stuff about Keuchel/Kimbrel, but I don't think it's real. Keuchel just doesn't impress me as worth the risk - both that he's not as good as he appeared a couple of years ago, and the inherent risk that a pitcher will implode physically. And Kimbrel? Jonathan Papelbon all over again. The Phillies' season isn't going to turn on the difference between having Kimbrel and instead relying on Robertson, Dominguez, etc. Improving an already-good bullpen corps isn't going to make any difference if the club isn't ahead on the scoreboard come the seventh inning.

My guess is that the Phils' alternative is to go with what they have - if they can't land a clear improvement (Harper), there's no point in grabbing a middling/maybe improvement - it's just as likely that the moves they've already made will work as would pulling in another "minor" improvement that could as easily bust.

I do not think an ultimatum presented simply because the front office "wants to get it over with" is wise. If they want Harper, they'll let this play out. An ultimatum, which could easily push the decision the other way, is the kind of strategy you employ if you want to appear tough, if you want the fans to think "you really tried" - if you're more interested in appearances than outcomes. I kinda hope that's not what's motivating Middleton.

[Austinfan]

They don't have to make an ultimatum, just say it's our final offer, no more negotiating, call us if you accept.

[bkox]

Harper has hit over. 300 twice in seven-years.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/phillies-bryce-harper-union-could-211323077.html

According to Sports Illustrated, over the past three seasons, shifts tripled against Harper and cost him 51 points off his batting average on balls in play up the middle or pulled.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

As an alternative, I think the Phillies have legitimate interest in Keuchel on a short term deal. Nothing I’ve read leads me to believe that they’ve considered pursuing Kimbrel. If Harper signs elsewhere, I think the Phillies might try to add another OF - I had hopes of Pollock being our plan B, but he’s now with the Dodgers. If Harper goes to LA, maybe we could swing a deal for Pederson who will be struggling to get AB’s.