2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[bigegypt0417]

Now the rumors of the Dodgers being back in the mix...I'm honestly tired of the whole thing. I wont be heartbroken if he signs with the dodgers.

[Squire]

It certainly is frustrating. But the Dodgers are less than 10m under the luxury tax. And already have an OF of Pederson, Pollock and Bellinger and their top prospect Verdugo. This feels like another Boras "scare the Phillies" ploy to me.

[Eisenreich]

Dodgers are a big threat to sign Harper out from under the Phillies. The fan base as a whole will respond very badly to this outcome. It would be an unfortunate way to start an otherwise promising season and a real detriment to their prospects for success.

[David_Criss]

FWIW - the local Fox sports affiliate said at the top of the hour, with their national cut in that Harper to the Phillies is a done deal and will be finalized on Wednesday.

[andyb]

But the Dodgers are less than 10m under the luxury tax. And already have an OF of Pederson, Pollock and Bellinger and their top prospect Verdugo

Remember that the Dodgers reset their luxury tax rate and could probably still make a profit if they were $50 million over the luxury tax line. They made $68 million in 2018 with player expenses of $261 million.

Like us with Williams or Herrera, they could easily deal an OF if they wanted to. This is a little scary if they go for something like 4/175.

[julio]

FWIW - the local Fox sports affiliate said at the top of the hour, with their national cut in that Harper to the Phillies is a done deal and will be finalized on Wednesday.

Seems to be driven by a tweet last evening by a guy at Bleacher Report. Take that source for whatever it's worth...Could be real; could be a Bleacher Report guy looking for attention.

Adam Lefkoe (AdamLefkoe)

[bkox]

the comments in that tweet say its speculation and not news. Its his prediction.

[julio]

the comments in that tweet say its speculation and not news. Its his prediction.

That makes sense to me - which is to say that the tweet WAS clickbait... but my guess is still that it's the only basis for what at least some others are starting to report as "fact." That's the way American media works (especially sports media, IMHO, where fact-checking is often non-existent).

[Squire]

So what would be actual $ cost to the Dodgers if they go 4 years/160?

[bigegypt0417]

If that's the deal he takes then I'm fine walking away...the more people discuss the numbers that Harper has put up over his career the more the idea of 40 million is scary.

I saw someone put his start of his career vs. Pat Burrell and it isn't exactly a rout.

[LegoDoom]

Care to include the link? I'm not the biggest Harper fan, but it looks like he has more than twice the WAR that Burrell had over his first 7 seasons. OPS+ of 139 vs 117. That's a rout, imo.

[allentown]

I take the opposite view. I'd rather go $160-180M/4 than $300/10. I think in terms of your overall cost/WAR a team will get more of a bargain on a shorter deal -- almost always. Also way less risk. Also we aren't hurting for $ or salary cap over the next 4 years, but may well be hurting as we get out to the end years of a 10 year contract. I had assumed that Boras/Harper wanted to wave a big 10 year -- 300++ deal for PR/bragging rights and had hoped that we could structure a deal to entice Harper to take an opt out after 4 years. If he's willing to take more annual $ over 4 years, that's my plan, minus the risk that he decides not to opt out, due to whim, injury, a bad season, whatever. I say GREAT. If, as rumored, we are already offering over $300 million, then we aren't all that far from $40 million a year, anyway.

[andyb]

That would put them $30 million over the luxury tax line. Since they reset they would have a 20% tax on the first $20 million ($4 million) and then a 12% surtax (32% rate or $3.2 million) on the last $10 million. Note I am not 100% sure the surtax only applies to the amount over $20 million or alternatively to the entire overage. Draft penalties do not kick in till $40 million over as well as a higher 42.5% rate.

Their profit/loss line is probably somewhere in the $325 million to $350 million range for player expenses. I imagine the Phillies line is more like $200 million with no attendance increases but easily north of $250 million if they can attract another 500K+ fans.

[bigegypt0417]

lets say you're right...is that worth 40 million a year?

it's a surface comparison but we're starting to see supremely crazy numbers being thrown out. I'll try to find the tweet which is obviously flawed but I think if we started looking at comps up to now we'd be pretty disappointed.

[allentown]

Care to include the link? I'm not the biggest Harper fan, but it looks like he has more than twice the WAR that Burrell had over his first 7 season

Harper has 27.4 bWAR vs 13.1 bWAR for Burrell. It should be noted that Burrell wasn't exactly carrying a low salary. He earned $13.25 million way back in 2007 -- that's 12 years of baseball FA salary inflation. It should also be noted that Burrell's salary was part of an early extension, not a FA deal and paid him more than he otherwise could have received for earlier arb years.

To BE -- yes that's worth $40 million. Twice the WAR of Burrell, equates to a Burrell-equivalent-without-inflation-or-allowance-for-Burrell-getting-$-upfront is $26.5 million. I think baseball FA salaries have doubled or more over that timespan, making $40 million a bargain.

[Squire]

Ok. That helps. I just find it completely incongruous to think that the Dodgers signed Pollock a month ago but we're also secretly valuing Harper at an AAV of like 10-20m more than any other team in the league. Whether they can still be profitable is another question. Their actions to this point don't make logical sense (to me at least).

[fish]

Going into the winter it was logical that the Dodgers had put themselves into a position to make room for Harper, and that there was no point for them to get involved in the bidding for him, just waiting until it was time to determine if they wanted to be involved in the best and final. Sure enough, there they are. An outfield logjam means nothing to them- if anyone has figured out how to move bodies and contracts, it's the Dodgers.

[Squire]

I guess we'll see. I'm really not that worried about the Dodgers that much. But perhaps my instincts are off.

[julio]

In other news:

1. John Middleton's private jet is still on the ground in Palm Beach.

2. Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.

[bigegypt0417]

To BE -- yes that's worth $40 million. Twice the WAR of Burrell, equates to a Burrell-equivalent-without-inflation-or-allowance-for-Burrell-getting-$-upfront is $26.5 million. I think baseball FA salaries have doubled or more over that timespan, making $40 million a bargain.

Bryce Harper was tied for 32nd in WAR last year...here are some of the players with a higher WAR than Harper...

Scooter Gennett
Aaron Hicks
Brandon Nimmo
Nick Castellanos

2017...again, tied for 32nd

That in your mind is worth 40 million a year?