2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Jazzhead]

Harper is available now and the Phillies have a relatively clear run at him.

That's if you assume he's negotiating with the Phillies in good faith. I don't think he is.

[andyb]

It is ridiculous because we already chose McCutchen to play that role. We don't need two and we are right handed heavy everywhere else.

[Patchmk88]

Man I’m getting really tired of these conspiracy theories that Harper doesn’t want to play with the Phillies and is using them. Have the people talking about this ever seen how Boras negotiates? Harper waiting this long has nothing to do with whether or not he wants to play for the Phillies. It has everything to do with Boras getting every last penny he could out of the team that will eventually sign Harper whether it is the Phillies or not.

[el-pietro]

You have no way to know that. You are not in the meetings. I'm sure if the Phillies felt he was wasting their time they would move on, or they would have made a stronger push for Machado.

[phillychuck]

If we don't get Harper I'm with Squire--go to war with our own guys, or guys we can trade them for. If we could somehow take some of Kingery/Hernandez/Williams/Altherr/Cozens/Quinn/(a pitcher) and trade them for a 3 or 4 WAR outfielder I'm on board. Then sign Kimbrel and have a super-dominant bullpen. Then save for Trout.

[Jazzhead]

I agree with signing Kimbrel as a backup plan. Our outfield may be good but not great without Harper, but we can counter with the league's most dominant bullpen.

[Jazzhead]

It is ridiculous because we already chose McCutchen to play that role. We don't need two and we are right handed heavy everywhere else.

You're putting too much stock in handedness. Jones is valuable because he can, I believe, still play center. Plus, his stats have generally been fine against right-handers.

[David_Criss]

Jones refused a trade to Philadelphia to be a backup. I doubt he'd willing sign a deal to be a backup with them now. But I like your thinking. Bautista is a decent backup option, too that might be worth considering as a 4th outfielder. So far Quinn and Cozens, haven't shown they need to be replaced, but ST is very young.

[andyb]

You're putting too much stock in handedness. Jones is valuable because he can, I believe, still play center. Plus, his stats have generally been fine against right-handers.

It is not handedness in the outfield necessarily. We have a RH 1B, SS, 3B, C, and utility guy (Kingery). That is a lot. We also have Cutch and Quinn is a switch hitter. We are going to face lots of right-handed pitching and not have options against that pitching.

Plus I am not sure Jones is better than Williams, especially when you consider one is likely to improve and one is likely to regress. We addressed the OF problem with McCutchen providing adequate defense and right-handed power. Now someone like Jones is the last thing we need in the OF. If we don't get Harper we'll see Williams and more of Quinn than if we don't and that combo is probably better than Jones.

[Lawman]

I wonder if Arenado's new deal impacts negotiation with Harper. At 8/$255MM gives it an AAV of $31.875MM and there's an opt-out after 3 years.

[xogfog]

Yeah, I think you now have to go at least 10 years $335 million for Harper.

[andyb]

If we have to do the 3-year opt out so be it. Hopefully it is something we could trade for slightly fewer dollars. The Arenado and Machado deals do put us solidly in that $30-$33 million AAV range though. And BTW Arenado signing a deal makes me think it is much more likely Trout will do the same thing in LA. We should not wait for him in the free agent market.

[Jazzhead]

I can see the merits of a single opt out at 3 years for Harper. If he and Philadelphia are like oil and water, let him go. If the 10 year deal exceeds $30 million annually, it's hard for me to see him opting out unless he and the team/city have irreconcilable differences. But he shouldn't have his cake and eat it to - no multimillion dollar signing bonus if he can opt out that soon.

[xogfog]

Opt-outs are almost always taken, even if just to renegotiate with the team your with. People keep saying that baseball is getting away from these bigger contracts, but I can't think of any player that opted out that didn't get a better deal. If Harper is getting 10 years, then I wouldn't give him an opt-out until the 5th year, but if he wants it sooner, then he needs to not have any no-trade provisions in his deal.

[Jazzhead]

And BTW Arenado signing a deal makes me think it is much more likely Trout will do the same thing in LA. We should not wait for him in the free agent market.

I agree. Trout has always struck me as a player who is willing to entertain the concept of loyalty. If we want Trout we should make the big push now to trade for him.

[andyb]

Opt-outs are almost always taken, even if just to renegotiate with the team your with.

I think it is much more 50-50 these days, even with stars in long term deals. David Price did not exercise his this offseason even though he is healthy. He just could not do much better. Obviously Kershaw got more money but I think we all knew that was misguided when he did it and was much more about him spending his entire career in LA.

When foolish money is added like with ARod the team doing it is usually in a position to overspend.

If Harper is a 6-8 WAR player for 3 years he will opt out and get more money. If he is only a 4 WAR player I am not so sure. And the Phillies could easily let him go at that point if they are trying to squeeze $50 million for Trout under the luxury tax. Teams offering the opt out should be willing to let that player go. I suspect Klentak is in that analytic camp where he would be completely fine to take Harper's age 26-28 years and then not give him 10 years at age 29. If Harper had been the key to a World Series victory I am guessing we would give him the extra years and money, but if that happens it is a nice problem to have.

[Squire]

I actually think this Arenado extension is good news for the Phillies. Boras looks like a double chump if Harper takes a short deal when Machado's agent got him 10 and Arenado's agent got him 8 while he was still under team control.

[baseballoldie]

Agree - and I also believe Boras knew an Arenado deal was coming and didn't want Harper to sign until Arenado's deal was announced. This is probably more of a reason why Harper hasn't signed yet than any of that talk about Harper not wanting to play in Philly. Now Boras can deliver the largest contract in both total value and annual value.

[bigegypt0417]

I actually think this Arenado extension is good news for the Phillies. Boras looks like a double chump if Harper takes a short deal when Machado's agent got him 10 and Arenado's agent got him 8 while he was still under team control.

So I'm going to take a little bit of a different viewpoint...if Harper takes the shorter deal with LA then he's following his heart over his bank account...I really can't be mad about that.

[bkeich]

So I'm going to take a little bit of a different viewpoint...if Harper takes the shorter deal with LA then he's following his heart over his bank account...I really can't be mad about that.

But if he takes a 3 year, $115M contract he might actually be following his bank account as opposed to 10 year, $301M.

I wont be surprised if that is what Harper does, either through a shorter contract or a buyout that he exercises, I think he wants to do this again before he is old, and negotiating another contract at 29 might just net him more $$$ total.