2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Austinfan]

Whatever will happen, will probably happen in the next week or so, Boras is out of potential suitors, everyone knows what's being offered, and if MIddleton gets peeved Boras is screwed, because if Middleton publicly announces the Phillies are no longer interested, Harper loses $25-50M (because the next highest bidder will probably hold firm or even reduce their offer) and Boras comes out looking stupid.

[zambonir]

I mean, I certainly didn't think that Middleton's presence meant they were having a press conference tomorrow, or that Harper would be getting on a plane

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

Jeff Passan on Twitter

I don't see how anything has changed. These guys are part of a media/agent-industrial complex at this point. They get clicks (though I'm not even sure where you read Heyman now), the agents get to keep the bidding war alive.

But the reality is, if our owner flew to Vegas by himself, that is a significant escalation.

Also, ICYMI:

Bryce Harper or not, don’t count on Phillies’ making a pitch for Dallas Keuchel,...

(The hedge is, they'd be interested if either took a one-year contract. Which at some point might not be out of the question, though certainly not yet.)

[saycheese]

Wasn’t Middleton on the first trip,to Vegas back in January? How could this be a meet and greet? This is a sign and fly. If Middleton goes back to Clearwater without Bryce I don’t think we see Bryce as a Phillies. Just my opinion.

[phillychuck]

Kingery actually said this in the Inquirer yesterday:

"In looking back on last season, Kingery realized that he was too passive at the plate. And the numbers backed up his conclusion. He got ahead in the count only 116 times — sixth fewest in the majors, ahead of Martin Maldonado (97), Carlos Gomez (101), Aledmys Diaz (103), Adam Engel (109) and JaCoby Jones (113). And Kingery fell into an 0-2 count 76 times, more than only Carlos Sanchez (86), Kevin Pillar (80), Corey Dickerson (78), Odubel Herrera (78) and Dee Gordon (77).

“My whole career, I’ve been an aggressive hitter,” Kingery said. “I kind of got away from it and let some pitches go by that I could hit.”

Is he a stone cold Moron? You fall behind in the count because you're too aggressive, not too passive. We need to look for the first chance to trade him if this is an accurate report. And the reporter needs to be sanity-checked, too. The numbers absolutely DON'T back him up.

You want to look at numbers? His O-swing percentage was 39.4%, almost 10% higher than league average and one of the highest in the big leagues. He needs to stop swinging outside the strike zone.

[nycphils]

My guess is it is Middleton cutting out the middle man and telling Harper directly that if he is thinking (with Boras’ help) that holding out will bring him a better offer from the Phillies, it isn’t happening. That would be a reason to have a face to face.

[tom81]

You fall behind in the count because you're too aggressive, not too passive.

You also fall behind in the count by not swinging at first pitch strikes. He did that a lot last year and it is mentioned in that article.

**Mallee said he tried to intervene. He showed Kingery video and pointed out pitches early in the count that he passed up even though they were in his wheelhouse.

“We’d look at the at-bats the next day and go, ‘OK, where’s your strength? Your strength is in this zone right here. Here’s the first pitch. It shows up there. Why didn’t you swing?’ ” Mallee said before spring training began. “There’s always an answer. ‘Well, he kind of quick-pitched me’ or ‘I wasn’t ready to hit.**

Once he got into the hitting funk last year he couldn’t get out of it, too much was happening to him and he was overwhelmed. Let’s hope that the offseason has rebooted him and he isn’t permanently harmed by the experience. He might actually be better for having it happen. Only time will tell and he is very young.

[bigegypt0417]

⚾️Matt Veasey🇺🇸 on Twitter

[California_Dreamin]

Various reports about whether or not Boras is currently in Las Vegas. Heyman says yes, others say no and speculate that Middleton is attempting to simply have a face to face meeting with Harper without Boras filter.

Not suggesting this is true but if it is, it might be a big mistake. Those of us who suffered through the JD Drew fiasco may recall that in July of that year, there was a report that Rolen, Wade and Montgomery were going to fly to Minnesota [where Drew was playing the Independent League] to meet with him and encourage Drew to sign with the Phillies.

Boras got wind of this and was furious and told Phillies this would be a very bad idea. Phils canceled the trip at the last minute. Middleton strikes me as a sound business man so I have to hope that A] Boras is either in L:as Vegas currently of B] Boras knew of Middleton's intention and indicated no issue with it.

If the Phillies fail to sign Harper I believe it will cause negative reverberations that only a Philadelphia can truly understand. I have not seen this much fervor for a free agent since Parrish in 1987 and that was before the internet, twitter and the 24 hour news cycle.

I know many will suggest I am overreacting and by May this will be forgotten but I don't think so. This is huge and if Harper signs elsewhere, especially if he signs with a NL team [which appears inevitable] every time Harper hits a home run Phillie phans will react with "that should have been with us" and I really shudder to think what kind of reception he will receive in Philadelphia should he join the Nats.

The irony is that some speculate that Harper fears joining the Phillies because of possible negative reaction in Washington but I think the opposite will be worse...the reaction he gets in Philadelphia when he comes back as a National.

There is almost an ownership Phillie phans have developed for Harper since the Las Vegas meeting in January and I get it...it just seems so perfect and he fits so well.

My heart is saying Middleton wouldn't have gone to LV unless he was sure he was coming back successfully. My head is preparing for a disappointment, one that I believe will give Phillies phans a huge letdown.

Personally, I wish we had never found out about the plane landing in LV. Arrieta was a great surprise, Harper won't be and my guess is that we are entering the end game and if Middleton doesn't corral him in the next couple of days he will either return to Washington or sign with the Giants.

[flyers19rw]

AF may well be correct. It’s time to sign or say good bye. Camp is open and the games have begun.
I don’t see where Boras has a lot of leverage left with the Phillies. If Middleton pulls out, Harper’s market collapses and Boras’ reputation along with it. Any future offers that Harper would get would fall short of what the Phillies have made and include a lot of deferred money which, according to reports, Harper does not want. It’s time to sign.

[Philsmania]

I'm not so sure there would be outrage in Philadelphia if they don't sign Harper. I follow several Phillies-related forums on Facebook closely and over the last three weeks, the sentiment in comments has very much shifted from "We want Harper or Machado!" to very much "Heck with Harper and Machado." Philadelphia likes gritty athletes but they also don't like the guys who are just for the money. The media is making Harper out to be essential to engaging the phanbase, but I suspect they have fallen a bit out of touch with the phanbase. Maybe Allentown's theory of the smear campaign is at work and the phan's are falling for it ("We genuinely tried hard to sign these guys but they were unreasonable."). Regardless, I get the sense that a lot of phans are ready to move on.

[andyb]

That is what I took out of the article. Sometimes aggressiveness means letting the pitcher know that if the first pitch is a strike and the type of pitch the hitter is looking for (i.e. fastball) then that pitch is going to get hit. Kingery's problem is as much taking a first pitch strike and then expanding the zone.

One has to prove you can hit before pitchers start pitching around you.

[saycheese]

First I heard of Middleton wanting to meet with Harper without Boras. Everything I read is Boras is in Vegas with Harper. Meeting Bryce without Boras would indeed be an interesting side plot to all of this. That would feed into the narrative that Bryce is not enamored with Philly and that MIddleton a Philly guy is going to give it one more shot to try and get him here.

I personally don't think Middleton tried to meet with Bryce without Boras. I think this is all about trying to get a deal hammered out. What we don't know right now is if Middleton is still in Vegas?

[jimbomill]

Jim Salisbury with a Friday night scoop. Says Middleton's plane is in Las Vegas tonight.

Unlike Kraft, going to FL, our owner goes where its legal

[jimbomill]

I'm not so sure there would be outrage in Philadelphia if they don't sign Harper.

I agree. We are talking about a massive amount of money for a player who hasn't lead any team to a NL Championship, let alone a WS Championship.

If he comes here and hustles, he'll be appreciated, or even something more.

[Austinfan]

People misunderstand plate discipline, it's not about taking strikes and trying to go deep into the count, it's about focusing on your pitch with less than two strikes, don't swing at pitches outside the K-zone, but also don't swing at pitches inside the K-zone you can't handle - but if a pitch is in your hit zone, hit it.

The concept is simple, if you don't get yourself out, you force the pitcher to get you out, and most pitchers will make one mistake in the course of a PA - it's up to you to capitalize on that mistake, whether it's the 1st pitch or the 7th pitch. What the best hitters can do is foul off strikes they can't handle with two strikes until the pitcher walks them or makes a mistake they can handle.

Walks are a byproduct of plate discipline and bat control, if you don't swing at balls, you force pitchers to throw 3 strikes you can't handle, and if you can foul off some of those strikes you force the pitcher to throw 4-5 strikes you can't handle, which is tough.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Philadelphia likes gritty athletes but they also don't like the guys who are just for the money.

I believe this statement summarizes the fine line that Harper is walking right now. If he wants to gain acceptance in Philly, he better sign soon. At some point, holding out just so you can be the highest paid player in the game is not going to sit well with the Philly phandom.

[Austinfan]

One reason I think the fans (it's the reporters who are most excited about signing Harper) are more relaxed about it is that it has become clear that Klentak significantly strengthened a team that was in the race until the young pitchers got tired in August.

Those young pitchers are a year older, the bullpen is deeper, the AAA depth is deeper, and the defense should be a lot better. So this should be a much better team this year without Harper.

[Dirk41]

What leverage at all does Harper have at this point? If the Phillies wall to away or low-ball him, what's he gonna do? Sign with the White Sox for 250 million?

[Philsmania]

What leverage at all does Harper have at this point? If the Phillies wall to away or low-ball him, what's he gonna do? Sign with the White Sox for 250 million?

Exactly. The Phillies have him over a barrel, not the other way around.

[Dirk41]

I think this entire offseason was bungled from the jump. Say what you want about this front office of baseball people, but they are extremely deliberate in all they do. They never leak. They have unique "valuations" of players (Santana, Arrieta, possibly Keuchel) and they seem to have a plan.

This Harper and Machado stuff has seemingly been a p---- contest with Middleton. A group with such strong ideas cannot value Harper over Machado (taking them at their word). In ten years, when this is all said and done, it will be fascinating to hear what is really happening behind the scenes.