2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[flyers19rw]

Its just me, and I'm probably in the minority here, but the more money that Harper gets, which gives him security, then, in return, the Phillies should knock down the opt out possibilities which gives them security as well. MM gets his first opt out after five or six seasons which basically makes his contract a lifelong deal since its doubtful that any club will give him more salary per year than he's getting at that age. My hope is that the Phillies are able to do the same with Harper and make the deal a two way street which benefits both sides.

[fish]

If Harper really wants to get close to $400 million, the only way he can get there is by adding years. Even $350 million might require an 11th year on the deal. This would lower the AAV of the contract, so that is a plus. Whether it is something the Phillies would consider is a completely different question. I imagine they do not want the AAV of the deal much over $30 million if possible.

If Boras needs the number 400 million to feel like he's won, then I'd do something like 10 years, 330 million with 2 club or vesting options at the end of the deal.

He'll have an opt-out and end up negotiating a new deal somewhere in the original contract anyway, the final number in this deal is all about bragging rights at this point.

[el-pietro]

I disagree with that. Having an opt out after ~5 years gives him something to aim towards. I don't know him personally and I have no idea what his work ethic would be like, but a~10 year ~300m contract gives him a huge amount of security. It would be perfectly normal to relax a little with that in your bank account. Having that opt out gives him some motivation. He gets to be a free agent again at 31 and can potentially earn some additional money.

At this point I think the Phillies sign him for under 300M. It doesn't sound like the Nats are interested. The White Sox and Phillies have both shown an aversion to going over 300M already. I don't know what other teams are out there willing to spend that sort of money. Maybe the Giants take a leaf out of the Padres book but SF aside there doesn't seem to be an obvious suitor other than the Phillies.

I'm going to guess he gets 10/280-285 or maybe 11/305-310. I could potentially see something like
10 Years @ 28M guaranteed. Opt outs after 5 and 7 years.
Team option or Vesting Option for years 11 and possibly 12 based on plate appearances.

If he took a 10 year 280 deal with two team/vesting options then Boras can spin it as the record contract even if its not guaranteed.

[el-pietro]

Jinx! Though I'm offering far less than you

[andyb]

If Boras needs the number 400 million to feel like he's won, then I'd do something like 10 years, 330 million with 2 club or vesting options at the end of the deal.

I don't think Boras needs $400 million to feel he's won. If he can get $400 million for his client, why shouldn't he? I am sure Harper has told him to get the biggest offers he can - and then he'll decide where he wants to play if they are close.

For the Phillies I think managing the AAV of the deal is going to be more important than the total dollars. Options with large buyouts save money, but might lead to larger AAVs.

[EDmuch]

Well my Columbus Blue Jackets just made the big trade for Matt Duchene giving them a Number 1 Center. Would be nice now for the Phils to step up to the plate and get the Harper deal done.

[zambonir]

Manny only got a six-team no-trade clause apparently.

If the Angels can afford to trade for Harper - which would also require giving up talent - they can afford to re-sign Trout.

I think the Phillies will have the ability to do both if they want to. Arrieta's $20 million comes off the books after 2020. And they refused to sign any pitchers (starters or relievers) to deals longer than two years. So just losing Arrieta, Robertson and Hernandez (a free agent) is enough to pay for most of Trout, and that's before you also trade Herrera, and lose McCutchen in 2021. Even just losing Neshek and Hunter could pay for most of Realmuto.

Obviously this plan depends on continuing to develop pitchers, and, ultimately, your 3B and at least one OF. Hoskins doesn't even start arbitration until 2021 so he won't get pricey until 2023 (and they could try to sign him w/o going into his FA years).

[julio]

Well my Columbus Blue Jackets just made the big trade for Matt Duchene giving them a Number 1 Center. Would be nice now for the Phils to step up to the plate and get the Harper deal done.

I guess Klentak was waiting for the Duchene deal to go down, to establish the market, before he pulls the trigger on Harper.

[flyers19rw]

Opt out after 5 or 6 years is fine with me. I had heard that 3 years was out there. Not my cup of tea. So knocking it down to 5 or 6 is better

[Taudawg]

I think an opt out after 3 is perfect. I think the further out the first opt out falls, the less likely he takes advantage of it. At 3 years, we likely get his 3 best years, and then the salary goes away. I just want his best years, but know we probably need to offer a 10 year deal. I'd agree to an opt out after 3, and every year after.

[allentown]

Agree. Harper opting out after 3, or preferably 4, years is optimum for Phillies. It gives a year or two to potentially have both Harper and Trout in the lineup and avoids the lower value years toward the end of the contract. I want Harper. I also prefer not to have him in Philly for 10 years.

[zambonir]

I think three years is probably not optimal because you don't really want to just lose him, Trout or no Trout. I also think the more likely outcome of any opt-out that soon is the Phillies are forced to renegotiate, not walk away. But I also don't mind them giving it to him if that's what gets it done.

If baseball continues in the direction it is going he might not find the open market to be that appealing in 2021 anyway (because even if the players gain a lot of ground in the next CBA it won't be tilted towards older free agents). OTOH if the NL adds the DH he could take advantage of that and it would be bad for the Phillies to lose him (Hoskins and Harper a perfect tandem to share the two positions at that point. Anybody thinking Ortiz is knocking on that door right now?)

History also says every player is tradeable, no matter how untradeable they seem. Vernon Wells, Matt Kemp. The Red Sox guys. And in Harper's case he's likely to still be a really good player in years 4-6, and beyond if there's a DH.

Anyway, right now this situation seems to resemble Arrieta more than anything else. There might not be a serious discount but there sure doesn't seem to be any serious second bidder.

[tom81]

Anyway, right now this situation seems to resemble Arrieta more than anything else. There might not be a serious discount but there sure doesn't seem to be any serious second bidder.

I agree with this. I think we can get him for less guarantee years than people think but it will still be at top AAV.

[Squire]

Jim Salisbury with a Friday night scoop. Says Middleton's plane is in Las Vegas tonight.

[julio]

Jim Salisbury with a Friday night scoop. Says Middleton's plane is in Las Vegas tonight.

Las Vegas? Las Vegas, you say?

Las Vegas, Nevada??

Veeeeerrrrrrrrrrry Interesting....

[zambonir]

nah probably New Mexico. maybe just spending the weekend around Santa Fe.

[Patchmk88]

As long as it isn’t in Jupiter, Florida

[fish]

Jim Salisbury with a Friday night scoop. Says Middleton's plane is in Las Vegas tonight.

No corrective lenses tonight Mr. Papagiorgio?

[Jeff05]

But I read somewhere that Harper was seen just two hours ago disembarking a plane in Philadelphia!

[Dirk41]

Passan and Heyman both shoot down any potential imminent deal.

This is brutal. Talk about taking all the wind out of the sails before the journey even begins. Baseball invented the Hot Stove, but the NFL and NBA own the offseasons.