2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[tom81]

I think Harper/Boras would accept that offer in a heartbeat. I also don’t think Klentak and the Phillies will offer that much. I think the bar that must be broken is at least 6 years guaranteed at a higher AAV than Grienke with the option years exceeding Machado’s deal. I think 4 years guaranteed at somewhere between $35-$40 million per with a club option/s for 3, or more years, at some rate and Harper getting an option to add two more years to make it 6 years north of $205 million might get it done. This will be a complex contract, Boras enjoys it and it will give him the ability to claim it is the greatest contact ever. It also won’t lock us into 10 years.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Guess this is more about satisfying Boras’ ego than it is about Harper getting a great deal that sets him up for life. The longer this plays out, the harder it will be for Bryce to gain acceptance in his new clubhouse. Seems like it’s time for Bryce to speak up and say it’s time to get something done.

[zambonir]

Boras works for Harper, not the other way around, as much as it seems otherwise sometimes. And most players (and their union) root for their peers to get paid. It's about as likely that there are people in the clubhouse who resent Nola for not setting a new arbitration record as there are people who will resent Harper. I mean, he's Bryce Harper. He's always been about being the biggest and the best and the youngest and now the richest. Comes with the territory (and it's okay not to like it, or even want it on your team).

Anyway most players blame the owners for this free agent process taking so long. And we're still three weeks short of when Arrieta signed. Do you think his teammates didn't accept him?

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Harper wasn’t embraced in the Nats clubhouse (see Boswell’s recent article or Papelbon’s spat with him a few years ago). As I said in an earlier post, team chemistry worries me for this team if we sign Harper. I’d rather see him get involved and accelerate the process rather than continue holding out to set the world record for contracts. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like his future teammates would like to see this settled too.

[zambonir]

I recognize the team chemistry could be an issue with Harper, but it won't be because he's trying to get paid or misses a week of spring training. If anything he will be welcomed as a hero for not kowtowing to the age of "valuation," which they all see as collusion. About 1/4 of our team is repped by Boras too, and they know that if Harper gets paid they have a better chance of getting paid.

[allentown]

Harper wasn’t embraced in the Nats clubhouse (see Boswell’s recent article or Papelbon’s spat with him a few years ago).

I never thought Papelbon was the nicest guy in the world. Harper was one of the home-grown Nats stars and Papelbon was the faded gun for hire who probably felt he deserved more respect than he deserved and be counted as a clubhouse leader, which he likely wasn't. It's a tricky position. Management want the older veterans to show 'leadership' and help police the clubhouse, yet bringing in a newbie vet likely seems an imposition and ruining of their chemistry to the younger, far higher WAR guys who were already part of the team. Possibly why the Phillies 2018 deadline acquisitions bombed to badly. It's tough for the old guys with the faded skills, because leadership is part of what they are selling to earn a largish salary from management. I think it's far easier if you were an older established player on the team, like Ruiz or Utley for the Phillies in their later years. Still, leadership or not, it's total WAR that matters most and Papelbon didn't pitch nearly as well for Washington as he did for us in 2015 and was flat-out bad in 2016.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

If we do sign Harper, I hope it works out that he fits in well and helps us win more games. Winning cures a lot of clubhouse problems. Regardless of whether or not their are issues within the clubhouse, the fan base will come down hard on him if the highest paid player in the league isn’t performing up to his contract.

[Jazzhead]

At this point, with the kind of money and contract length that Boras is demanding, I think it's best to sign Kimbrel to a three-year deal and be done with it. We saw what New York was able to do with that monster bullpen. With Robertson, Kimbrel and Seranthony, we'd have a comparable thing going, with even our secondary relievers like Neshek and Arano doin' the nasty.

A ten-year commitment at unspeakable sums of money for the out years of Bryce Harper's career cannot in the end help our club. The goal should be to win now, but with upgrades at four positions and Kimbrel to cap a killer bullpen, our young starters can have the confidence to just go out and pitch. We can win now without Harper.

Harper is a talented mercenary, but on a young team what can be the effect of bringing in a guy making 30 times what most of his teammates do? And clogging up a position that likely denies a Phillies future to Haseley and Moniak, let alone Nick Williams?

[zambonir]

Still don't understand why there would be any interest in Kimbrel, let alone any way in which a guy who pitches 60 innings replaces a guy who gets 600 ABs. If you sign Kimbrel, Neshek probably gets traded (or Hunter, and it's debatable who is better, and one of them is probably gone anyway). And Arano might not even make the team full-time (since he has options).

If they do lose out on Harper I'd rather go for Keuchel, who addresses a legit existing weakness (no LH starter, four of the five starters are not sure things. Keuchel is not either but he'd up the odds). The pen is already fine. And how many championships did the Yankees win in the last 10 years because of their monster bullpen? They haven't even made the WS more recently than the Phillies (though they did win that one).

And how is Harper a mercenary? If that's true then he just spent the first part of his career as a slave. He's a guy looking for a job who thinks he has a certain market worth. And the Phillies obviously agree or they wouldn't have punted on Manny. If he's not, great, they will get him cheaper like they did with Arrieta.

Would love to think that, between them, Haseley and Moniak and Williams can produce even one guy who would seem blocked by Bryce Harper. But if Haseley or Moniak aren't CFs they have likely already failed a little bit. The whole reason why the Phillies are so hot for Harper and were so hot for Realmuto is they already decided that the system they inherited and the drafting they have done so far isn't as promising as it should have been.

[Austinfan]

Rather go with our own pitchers than overpay some more bodies who aren't clear upgrades.
We have plenty of depth, let 'em fight it out.

[allentown]

But if Haseley or Moniak aren't CFs they have likely already failed a little bit. The whole reason why the Phillies are so hot for Harper and were so hot for Realmuto is they already decided that the system they inherited and the drafting they have done so far isn't as promising as it should have been.

Moniak is a CF. Haseley is not, in all likelihood -- yes he could play there, but likely is below average. Yes, we don't have the best MLB roster in NL East at the moment and the Braves have a significantly better farm than we have. why we need a star. I preferred MM, but Harper will also be a big help. I have tried to look at our real situation, without the rose-colored glasses. We have a ton of money and cap space. Apart from that we have no advantage over the other teams in the NL East, apart from the Marlins. We are good enough that we've past the period of primo draft picks. Just waiting for the guys on the farm to mature is not going to give us a shot at a WS. You can get lucky trading for older vets, as we did in 2003 and as we did again in 2008 with Lidge, but that is very hit-or-miss. As with 1993, it also can be a very short-term solution.

[xogfog]

I still think they are going to sign Harper, but think about this, what if signing Harper is the bridge to Trout. I don't think they will be able to sign Trout, who is going to get the biggest contract ever, with Harper, who will have the largest contract for 2019 on the payroll. What if they are signing Harper so that they can trade him straight up for Trout next offseason. It puts Harper in California, where he wants to be, sends Trout to Philly where he wants to be, and gives the Angels a star player with a contract in place with cost certainty, for less then what it is going to cost for Trout.

[allentown]

We can afford both. Harper will undoubtedly demand a FNTC. Even if he doesn't, are the Angels going to want to trade for a guy who is owed almost $300 million? Why not just pony up a few more tens of $millions to keep Trout, who is their home-grown, popular with their fans star?

[nycphils]

I think you’ll see a NTC that captures maybe 15 teams, but not a FNTC. That would be a little nuts on a 10+ year contract.

[Austinfan]

Harper won't block anyone b/c McCutchen is 32 on a 3 year deal, if Haseley breaks out, he can platoon with McCutcheon then replace him.

[David_Criss]

What if they are signing Harper so that they can trade him straight up for Trout next offseason. It puts Harper in California, where he wants to be, sends Trout to Philly where he wants to be, and gives the Angels a star player with a contract in place with cost certainty, for less then what it is going to cost for Trout.

Holy cow I hadn't even thought of that, but it makes sense. Anaheim also gets to save face by letting Trout leave. No way can one team have $75 million committed to two players in 2020 (Harper and Trout). At least not without a very very deep and ready farm system in place.

Rumors on MLB tv last night is that some think Harper could get an 11 or even 12-year contract......that scares me for any player. And according to the Phillies website Keuchel and Kimbrel are still looking for 4 and 5-year guaranteed deals.

Spring Training games do start today, right? These guys have had 3 to 4 months to iron this stuff out.

[xogfog]

I don't think the Phillies could afford the two biggest contracts in baseball, without having to skimp on the rest of the roster, especially without much left in the pipeline. The Angels don't have any control over signing Trout, it is entirely his decision, and if he tells them he wants to play for the Phillies and will not sign an extension with them, the a trade for Harper would make sense.

[JoefromPocono]

How about we actually get the signing done before we start trying to trade him...lol

[allentown]

Maybe, but I have trouble imagining Harper agreeing to a deal which allows him to be traded from the team that signs him only 2 years after he signs the long-term contract.

[andyb]

If Harper really wants to get close to $400 million, the only way he can get there is by adding years. Even $350 million might require an 11th year on the deal. This would lower the AAV of the contract, so that is a plus. Whether it is something the Phillies would consider is a completely different question. I imagine they do not want the AAV of the deal much over $30 million if possible.