I don’t think the owners believe that running up the price on a rival is in their long term best interest.
Especially if the music stops and they end up with a $325 million dollar player, whom they don't want to and can't afford to pay $325 million. Which is the point that concerns me about the Eagles franchise tagging Foles, even to one of the lesser tags -- we don't want Foles at a big salary in 2019, as we are already in cap trouble and will have to cut a couple or three guys we want to keep if Foles ends up in Philly, because our supposed trade partner balks.
Ted Lerner may have the highest net worth among owners, but that doesn't mean all that worth is available to burn on the Nationals. It is very likely most of that net worth is not cash. He is also part owner of the Washington Capitals and Wizards, so do we even know baseball is his number one priority? Personally, I think they are measured in their approach to Harper and that most likely means they are out at this point.
How many days now have we heard everything is lining up for Harper to Philadelphia? Does he or doesn't he want to play for the Phillies?
I'm sure most fans feel that way, but this is the last dance and it doesn't end until Scott Boras says so. What's more likely happening is Boras elbowing his way past Klentak to get to Middleton. I'd venture to guess that there is 30-40 million more to be made by making owners sweat in overtime and that March 1 is the cut-off date for a player to want to get into camp.
Or how much does anyone need all 6 weeks. I noticed that the Phillies announced their first 5 starters for the Spring games and all of them are going to be in the Lehigh Valley rotation. Clearwater fans will have to go to side sessions and minor league games this year if they actually want to see a major league starter apparently.
Even if playing for the Phillies has been his #1 dream since childhood, the delay is driven by a desire to get more $ and better terms and likely has zilch to do about whether or not he wants to play for the Phillies. This is all negotiation tactics. I fail to see why so many are choosing to equate 'he hasn't signed yet' to 'he doesn't want to play in Philly[. Boras negotiates slowly and seeks to squeeze the last drop of blood from the stone before agreeing to a deal, since Boras doesn't know exactly how much the team is willing to pay or whether the team knows its bidding against itself, if that is even the case here, he is going to keep squeezing until he is 100% convinced that more squeezing won't yield 1 more $. That's the process we are engaged in. Where Harper wants to play may be totally irrelevant. Players generally hire Boras when their goal is getting every last $ it is possible to get. There are times when a player tells Boras he wants to re-up or go to a particular place. In those cases, Boras doesn't play the elaborate games he is playing here. It seems 95% likely that Harper goes to whomever offers the best deal, including opt outs and likely NPV, because Boras is not an unsophisticated soul and knows that a $ in pocket today is worth more than a $ received 10 or 20 years from now.
The NFL does the same thing. ST is as much to evaluate young players and AAAA FA signees to see if they should make the 25-man or be in the queue if an injury call-up is needed in-season, as it is to get players ready to play games. It certainly doesn't take 6 weeks to be ready to play and get into shape. Every game played is a possibility for injury. Getting in shape to play in FL does not seem to put one in shape to play in PA on a cold April night. Reading has had a lot of April injuries over the years. The Eagles starters miss more pre-season time than they play.
Players used to use ST to get into game shape, but with the big money, any player who doesn't work out 12 months of the year is a fool, and if he shows up out of shape it's a big red flag to the FO.
So it's more about giving the ML roster guys enough time to sharpen their skills, but use most of the PAs to give kids experience and see who you keep for the last few roster spots and who you want to stash in AAA in case of emergency.
This idea he (maybe) doesn't want to play in Philly I am not buying. Does that mean by not signing yet, he doesn't want to play in San Fran, Chicago, etc.
At the end of the day, I don't really care if he wants to be here or not. Billy Wagner hated Philly, but he put up two excellent seasons. Scott Rolen didn't like Philly, but it didn't seem to hurt his on-field performance. If I were an agent, I would leak this vibe to try and drive up the price, especially in a limited market.
I think it is important to again make clear distinctions.
Wagner struggled with the local media coverage of his performance and some fans feedback on the same. I do not recall him saying anything negative about Philadelphia the community or the Phillies organization.
Rolen's beef was almost entirely with the Phillies as an organization and how it was, in his opinion, fomenting negativity about Rolen with the fans and local media by leaking selective information (contract offer etc.) and using it as an excuse to not spend money to build a winner.
Harper has never played here and likely has little knowledge beyond what he has heard, but I still do not buy the theory that he would make this important of a decision on such a shaky foundation of information. I guess we'll see what happens, but to me if the Phillies pay him he will play here with no problem.
How many days now have we heard everything is lining up for Harper to Philadelphia? Do they or don't they want to sign him badly enough?
March 1 seems about right. Figure the bidding will be over by Monday or Tuesday, it leaks by Wednesday or Thursday and they rush to make it official and get him into camp over the weekend.
Think this would fly with Boras/Harper: $25 million bonus, 5 years at $40 million per, 5 years at $20 million. Opt out after 5 years. He makes $325 million over 10 years and has an incentive to opt out after 5 years if he's still good. If he's not, $20 million per year by that point might not be much .
