2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

andyb 2019-02-20 22:54:12 UTC #851

I think if we get to $400 million it will be with a longer deal. 12/400 or something like that. Harper gets his record with a couple of opt outs. The last 2 years could be at something like $20 million each. Maybe the last 4 years. Go 8 years at $40 million plus 4 more at $20 million. Opt outs after 4 and 8. Then the Phillies get a lower AAV. Harper gets his $400 million bragging rights. And his opt outs really make him a $40 million a year player that could opt out for more if he plays well.

BostonRoss 2019-02-20 23:22:46 UTC #852

I would say the Phillies blew it if they pay Harper $10M more per year than Machado.

zambonir 2019-02-20 23:31:45 UTC #853

Yeah.

I gotta admit, I was someone who thought the seeming Harper momentum was either the Phillies putting pressure on Machado's camp, or mostly Boras-driven. Now it does seem pretty clear they prefer Harper. And are willing to pay more for him. I'm gonna assume they think $330 gets it done. $350 if a second team is really in the mix. But if he costs $400 million giving Machado $310 or 320 certainly would look better.

BostonRoss 2019-02-20 23:51:49 UTC #854

You said it before: Boras usually wins.

EastFallowfield 2019-02-20 23:59:20 UTC #855

You can find reports about every team allegedly in the Harper chase not being really in the Harper chase except for the Phillies.

San Diego was a surprising home for Machado but we did hear of their interest before it happened.

Philsmania 2019-02-21 00:13:19 UTC #856

Despite what Boras may want, it sounds like this is a one horse race meaning that we should be the ones who can dictate terms to an extent.

I don't like Harper and don't really want him. This feels like something the Phillies have to do more so than something I want to see them do as was the case with Thome sixteen years ago. When the news ultimately comes, I won't feel the joy I did back then.

EastFallowfield 2019-02-21 00:26:07 UTC #857

Has everyone seen the factoid that the Phils could sign Harper to a ten year deal and after it ended he’d still be younger than Pete Rose was when they signed him?

zambonir 2019-02-21 00:37:38 UTC #858

Which is another reason why waiting until next year doesn't fly. Arenado will turn 29 early in the first year of his deal. Rendon will turn 30 a few months in. Trout will be 29 and that's still two years away (barring a trade). But Harper is 26 for this entire regular season. It's like getting a couple of years for free, whether you're talking the peak years up front or the fact that the dead years won't arrive as quickly.

julio 2019-02-21 00:41:48 UTC #859

... and Harper probably doesn't have a gambling problem; there's a good chance he doesn't cheat on his wife; he probably doesn't pal around with shady hoodlums and wannabe gangsters. He may not be the biggest creep in the contemporary game.

Pete Rose is a tough act to follow... if you get my meaning. Dykstra tried (and may be succeeding), but most guys have no chance.

Austinfan 2019-02-21 01:19:18 UTC #860

On the other hand, Rose did bring an edge that helped that team get over the top, and if Bystrom doesn't hurt his arm during the strike in 1981, they might have repeated.

Harper doesn't sound like that kind of guy, but Realmuto might be.
This team will need veteran leadership, which may be one reason for a slight overpay for McCutchen and the trade for Segura - not just strengthening spots, but taking pressure off Hoskins et al to carry the team.

Austinfan 2019-02-21 01:21:05 UTC #861

Meanwhile, the farm system may have jumped a notch:

"Fifth and sixth, respectively, are Venezuelan center fielders Luis Rodriguez (linked to the Dodgers) and Yhoswar Garcia (Phillies). Rodriguez has more power, while Garcia is more of a slam dunk, long-term center fielder."

Squire 2019-02-21 02:21:29 UTC #862

The fangraohs article on Bryce Harper May have calmed me down

schooldoc 2019-02-21 02:44:10 UTC #863

Haven't checked in here in a couple days.

My two cents....even after the Machado thing, I still believe Harper-to-the-Phils makes too much sense for both sides for it not to happen. I also don't realistically see another team that has the financial wherewithal and the willingness to match the Phillies in this at this moment. If the Phillies give him a deal that surpasses Stanton's, it should & will get done.

It better.

zambonir 2019-02-21 03:09:07 UTC #864

I think the Fangraphs article...

...probably takes Klentak a bit too literally when it says that if they valued Machado below $300 they probably don't value Harper that high either. Or at least, it being Fangraphs, it hasn't occured to them that their valuation might not be solely baseball-related.

But it does seem true that there's no real competition. The White Sox might be closest, if they could get closer to a guarantee instead of options and incentives. I think he's probably right that it entirely pivots on the whims of a 93 year-old man in DC. Clearly the son and Rizzo have moved on.

xogfog 2019-02-21 04:23:37 UTC #865

Phillies bring back Trevor Plouffe on a minor league deal.

andyb 2019-02-21 04:58:44 UTC #866

Nats are $10 million under the luxury tax now. Harper would put them over $20 million over if the offer is more than $30 million a year. That would put the Nats in the extra 12% surtax range. They still have not resolved their TV dispute with the Orioles. And they have a ready replacement in Robles.

It never made sense for the Nationals to keep Harper once they got Corbin.

zambonir 2019-02-21 05:10:33 UTC #867

Agreed, and supposedly the non-deferred value of the Nats' offer was more like $200 million. But surely you agree - since you are down there - that we can't entirely discount the combination of their history with Boras and an owner with not many years left (if memory serves that's how Fielder and Verlander got their Tigers contracts).

bigegypt0417 2019-02-21 13:47:56 UTC #868

Watching Scott Boras attempting to build a market for Harper is interesting...these leaks about turning down 300 million dollar offers is just more of his antics...he almost always gets some team to believe it though...

andyb 2019-02-21 14:27:24 UTC #869

The Nats clearly have a 90-something owner who can afford to lose a billion dollars to win. They probably are losing a small amount every year because of their small TV payments. I think they are fine losing maybe $50 million a year. Beyond that though they would start to put some of their future in jeopardy. I always took that to mean they would get Corbin if Harper declined the initial offer. And in a baseball sense, Soto and Robles are probably better than Harper clearly in 5 years.

Now could they still have their toe in the water? Maybe to make the Phillies pay more? Sure. Just don't think they are serious. The Giants on the other hand should be able to think long term. Their market is even more lucrative so once they clear out some bad contracts in the next couple of years they should easily be able to have a $35 million AAV on the books like the Phillies.

EDmuch 2019-02-21 14:52:19 UTC #870

A left handed hitter playing in SF's park ????? It would kill Harper's numbers. He woudl never hit 30 HR's in a season again if he played in SF.