2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[Lawman]

If Harper really doesn't want to be here, not sure I want him here.

[bkeich]

The Phils are now in a grave situation, they just lost the best fit and will probably end up overpaying to get the guy who is only marginally a fit. Disaster.

Strong words.

If the fact that Machado signed (if/when he actually does) with the Padres is a "disaster" that places the Phillies in a "grave situation"... what words would we use if the Phillies charter bringing the club north to start the season were to explode in midair?

In other words, let's try to keep some degree of perspective here, eh?

Perspective.... no problem. Lets look at the offseason, everyone keeps saying it is a good solid offseason, but is it? What was done?

Sign McCutcheon - adding for just money. OK, a guy past his prime but still only money lost and we have excess.
Segura - We trade our #1 prospect from last year to get an older SS and currently a better player.
Realmuto - We trade our #2 prospect from last year and our young, future C for a older and currently better player.

Also gone from last year our at least 2 other of the top 7 prospects if I am not mistaken. So we have gone from one of the top farm systems to a bottom half system in 1 year, and not because we graduated the players, but instead because we cashed them out for players.

So to do that you are now in "win now mode" right? Trading away the top of your farm system is what you do when you think you are "on the cusp"? So are we?

Well, to even start to say that we have to add Harper, because as it is we have not done nearly enough to be more than just a good team, maybe up to mid-high 80s in wins from these moves. There is not alot coming from the minors in the near future, most of our better prospects are in the low minors again, so it has to come from other sources. Now we have a average-below average farm so we can't add many wins from cashing that out further.

Yes, I think this franchise has changed its path too early, they were in a rebuild and lost patience and now we have an average team and a below average farm, so without Harper... grave situation and Disaster, I stick with my words. Even with him, I think we have made a huge mistake this offseason, but without him... Disaster (and understand, I am not a fan of Harper's arrogant play at all, but...)

At the moment our rebuild has created a 3rd place team with a below average farm and we no longer have a young team that is a few years away from their prime, but just as many players that will be declining as are getting better. That wasnt the idea.

[tom81]

I thought from the beginning that whichever of Machado-Harper signed first would get the most money and I still do. I just don’t see which team besides the Phillies wants to commit to a large multi year deal for Harper. I think Harper may be on the market for a while longer and end up taking either a short term, high AAV deal, or less that Machado’s deal.

[zambonir]

That's former Phillies beat writer Andy Martino mind you. I wouldn't put much more stock in that then, y'know, the six reports that said Harper was going to sign with the Phillies over the past three weeks.

[gmwannabe]

is it more of a disaster if the phils don't sign harper or if they sign him and he doesn't want to be here? he only signs for money. it sounds like boras is playing the phils like a violin and i hope middie puts down the bow. he is going to be blasted by fans for his stupid money quote, but at least he didn't say insane money. the team is better. are they ready to contend? who knows. they folded at the end of last year and the braves feasted on the eastern division. Nats started out real slow and came on like gang busters. mets will be in the hunt also. i would love to have harper and still hope they do. but i don't really think is a disaster if they don't get him.
gm

[jimbomill]

Yes. If he cares not to be here, I care not about him.

[Squire]

If the Phillies fail to sign Machado or Harper, they have failed. I really don't care what rationalizations there are about why they failed like whether the player "liked it here" or "preferred the West Coast". I really don't. Middleton is all talk at this point to me. All this "Steinbrenner of the NL" reputation is completely false and undeserved if we strike out here.

[Lawman]

More like Hal Steinbrenner then George.

[bigegypt0417]

If the Phillies fail to sign Machado or Harper, they have failed. I really don't care what rationalizations there are about why they failed like whether the player "liked it here" or "preferred the West Coast". I really don't. Middleton is all talk at this point to me. All this "Steinbrenner of the NL" reputation is completely false and undeserved if we strike out here.

It's a failure but what do you do if a player doesn't want to play here?

I know you post emotionally but how do you get someone here that doesn't want to be? Do you offer 10 years and 400 million? 375?

What is it that you do if you are in the position to do something.

[David_Criss]

I disagree. Failure would be not improving this team and they have.
Failure would be saddling the team with a ridiculous contract for a player who clearly prefers other teams. We all remember when AFraud signed his 10/252 with Texas and then 2-years later whined his way onto the team he wanted to be on in the first place - getting the destination and money. That would be a failure.
Failure would not be making Harper a solid offer. And by every account they have.

Say they offer Harper 325/10 and he still takes a lesser offer in LA or NY that is not on the Phillies mgt. that is Harper taking advantage of being able to play wherever he chooses. What if he says the only way I play in Philly is for $350 or $400 over 10 or 12 IMO agreeing to that would be a failure because then you have a player who isn't concerned with leading the team and is 1/5 of a 25-man payroll.

My point is we don't know what the offer is and I am confident the Phillies may very well have the highest offer out there and that he very well may reject for something lesser in another market that is not a Phillies failure. That is the Phillies being played to get the maximum amount he can from the team he wants to sign with. Who knows but to call it a failure is a bit premature.

MM could have earned more per year guaranteed for 8-years and made a whole lot more proving his worth, but took the guaranteed money in San Diego.

I hope Harper signs here and I hope he continues to be an all star in Phillies red, but at some point you have to have a "walk away point" looking at the strategic future of the franchise. None of us knows what that amount is and I suspect it is higher than what MM gets.

[tom81]

If the Phillies fail to sign Machado or Harper, they have failed. I really don't care what rationalizations there are about why they failed like whether the player "liked it here" or "preferred the West Coast". I really don't. Middleton is all talk at this point to me. All this "Steinbrenner of the NL" reputation is completely false and undeserved if we strike out here.

I completely disagree Squire. If it requires a completely stupid deal for the Phillies to acquire Harper then we are better off without signing him and it is not a failure. It doesn't even fly in the face of what Middleton actually said, even if many misinterpreted his quote.

“We’re going into this expecting to spend money,’’ Middleton told USA TODAY Sports. “And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.’’

Middleton laughed, then said without smiling: “We just prefer not to be completely stupid."

It is better to eat some crow and look bad for a while and not cripple the team going forward for many years with a completely stupid contract.

[EDmuch]

I agree with Squire. No one told Middleton to open his mouth. But since he did, to beaten out for Manny by the Padres of all teams, and then to fail to step up to the plate to get Harper will be an incredible black eye for big talking Middleton. He will have no real credibility with the fans anymore. The Phils have put themselves in this situation by letting Harper hold on past Machado. Now Boras is going to put the screws to the Phils. But the FO should not complain. They have put themselves in this position. I can see Harper wanting $350 million now.

[Squire]

I'm just frustrated. Johnny Almaraz has been given the 10th, 1st, 8th and 3rd overall picks and we still have a bottom half farm system with none of those guys graduated. We have an owner who everyone treats like he's different than Giles and Montgomery who has done nothing to deserve that reputation. We are in the 4th-6th metropolitan media market and we have been irrelevant for 5-6 seasons. We got a great local media deal providing revenues befitting the 4th-6th major media market. We built a strategy around adding a generational player this offseason and our guys don't seem to be able to close the deal. Everybody thought Howie overpaid to get Wentz. He didn't. At least the Sixers followed through on their strategy.

[Eisenreich]

Squire just nailed it. This has been their plan for a long time. They must follow through. The Realmuto trade makes no sense without adding Harper or Machado too. They have painted themselves into this corner with their words and actions. It’s time to overpay and get it done.

[saycheese]

Excellent post Squire and you have captured my feeling pretty well. All signs are pointing to the Phillies passing on Harper. Something is a miss here. Analytically speaking Harper and Machado are pretty similar with Machado being better defensively and playing a premium position. If they don't value Machado at 300 mill I find it hard to believe they will value Harper there. To me both the MacPhail and Klentak recent press conference were to prepare us for the inevitable signing neither.

[EastFallowfield]

Is there any credible reporting that Harper doesn't like Philly that is more accurate than the Machado likes the Yankees so much he's gonna sign there reports, or that Machado was going to the White Sox because of his brother in law reports?

[bigegypt0417]

Squire just nailed it. This has been their plan for a long time. They must follow through. The Realmuto trade makes no sense without adding Harper or Machado too. They have painted themselves into this corner with their words and actions. It’s time to overpay and get it done.

If the player doesn't choose to come here I'm not sure what you do. I never wanted Machado and I'm even less inclined to take Harper if it's a record setting contract.I get the idea it would be a failure but a bigger failure is handcuffing yourself going forward.

[allentown]

This is Philadelphia negativity. Fans have too much of a desire to believe our players actually love being on our team and living in the Philly region. Undoubtedly many don't. Playing baseball is their job. It is a national job market, in which players also have no choice in where they work for the first 6-7 years of their careers. So what? I wouldn't have wanted to relocate to Houston or Paducah KY, where the company I worked for had plants. It wouldn't have affected how well I did my job. Actually, relocated to a great place, like outside of London, where we had offices and a lab, might have been so much fun that it would have detracted from job performance.

Does anyone think MM's first choice was SD? It was very clear that Thome preferred to stay in Cleveland and the Benjamins brought him to Philly. He had a good attitude while he was here.

I don't think Harper is going to be an attitude problem. Having read the Washington writers' version of Harper's departure as addition by subtraction, I think he's going to be driven to prove them wrong, wherever he ends up playing.

I look back to the last time when the Phillies seemed to be viewed as a very positive destination -- after the 2008 WC. We added some big names, but never equaled how far that 2008 team went in post-season. Harper has a chance to be seen as the guy who made these Phillies champions. That's incentive. I think he'll also prefer to win than to loaf along and lose.

I hope we sign Harper. We will be a much better team with him here. Without, I fear this rebuild fizzles. As said above, we traded young talent to win now. Our talent level is currently not high enough to win now.

I'll add that not being a players first choice of destination doesn't mean he doesn't want to play for the Phillies. Thome simply liked Cleveland a lot. MM apparently wanted to be a Yankee. It REALLY is time to get over this notion that players are going to sign with us, because they REALLY love us as fans, love Philly as a city, and love the Phillies as a team. l

[EDmuch]

I agree that by trading away quite a bit of young talent, we are now in a "win now" mode. To then fail to take the action necessary to "win now" would reduce this FO to the level of a bad joke.

[Lawman]

Andy Martino (martinonyc)

I don't know if he's right or wrong, but I don't have a good feeling about Harper to Philly.