I'm going to preface this by saying there is still every possibility that the Phillies go out and get Bryce Harper, we all rejoice and they compete for the division for the next several seasons. I'm also aware that the Phillies FO is much smarter than me, and has more information that me. Theres also the possibility that they expect massive development from internal players in the next 12 months which would surpass the value they could get from signing Harper or Machado.
With that said, not signing one of these two players is being cheap. Maybe its the right decision to make from a financial POV but its cheap. If you want to go and win the division and make a run at the World Series signing one (or both) of these players is the sensible decision to make. Not doing so means they are prioritising something other than winning and Middleton has been lying to us.
Projections are little more than guessing with maths but they are all we have to go on. Most of them put the Phillies at about 85 wins and third in the division. They also say Harper and Machado are worth ~5 wins which is about a 3-4 win bump over the incumbent player in the Phillies everyday lineup and would put the Phillies in contention for the division on paper. It wouldn't guarantee anything but it would make the Phillies the division favourites or close to.
I can understand preferring one over the other, and I can even understand the idea that maybe they aren't a good fit for the team, organisation or city. I can understand thinking there might be a better opportunity to buy those 3-5 marginal wins down the road. But I don't see where those marginal wins are coming from because there aren't many legitimate 4-6 win players (with or without potential for MVP-like seasons) who are going to be available anytime soon.
There aren't any real options left out there in 2019. Best case scenario Keuchel and Kimbrel might give you an additional 3 wins between them but they are both already 31 and likely looking for long term deals. So 3 extra wins in 2018 for about the same AAV as Harper or Machado on maybe a 4 year deal that takes them up to 35. Why not just sign one of the big names at that point? Injury risk is much higher with pitchers, especially those already in their 30s. Marwin Gonzalez? Hes 30, has had one really good season but has basically been a 1-2 win player for his whole career so whats the point? We have several players like that already and he would be displacing a similar or slightly worse player.
Ok so maybe we see how good the team is this year, hope for some development and try again next year? Lets look at the free agents for 2020. There are some talented players. The position player class is headlined by Anthony Rendon and Nolan Arenado. Both would be great fits in Philadelphia, and probably have similar on field value to Harper and Machado. Arenado though will be a looking at a similar deal in terms of AAV to the one those two will eventually sign and hes already two years older, plus theres no guarantee he ever hits free agency so why not just sign one of the available free agents now. There is also the Coors Field effect which might be overrating him so hes a bit of a risk from that perspective. Rendon might not be looking at the same sort of money as the stars as he seems underrated but there have been rumblings of a long term deal for him in Washington already and hes even older than Arenado so you are looking at maybe getting him cheaper but only if he makes it to free agency. Plus if he is looking for less money he will have more suitors. Hes also one of those players who people say is underrated so much he becomes rated. I suspect all 30 teams know exactly how good he is.
There are a couple of top notch starting pitchers who might be available in Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole but again there are rumours of a long term deal for Sale in Boston and hes about to turn 30 so would be just shy of his 31st birthday even if he was a free agent. A 5 year deal takes you past his 36th birthday which is where a 10 year deal for Harper or Machado takes you.
Cole is a little younger, he'd be a free agent at 29.5 but thats 3 years older than Harper or Machado and again you are hoping he even reaches free agency.
We can pine for Mike Trout in 2021 but by then JT Realmuto is looking at a new long term deal or free agency and Trout would be looking at 40M plus. Hed be 29.5 and hed be worth every penny but the Angels are trying to sign him to a long term extension and why wouldn't he sign it? Sure he loves the Eagles and Sixers and was excited when Doc Halladay signed but playing for the Phillies is different to supporting them and having to put up with sports talk radio and deal with impatient fans may well sour his love for the team. If I were him I could see myself happily playing my days out in sunny California for a team with very low stress levels.
The farm doesn't offer much confidence either. Plenty of arms who might be middle of the rotation or bullpen pitchers and very little in terms of everyday players. The only real prospects who could possibly come up and best case scenario add 4 wins any time soon are Medina, Bohm or Hasely and even the most optimistic among us surely isn't counting on that.
So if the team is serious about winning, truly winning, they will go out and offer Harper 325M or somewhere in that region over 10 years even if their analysts and economists say doing so will hurt their profit margins. Because I don't see a realistic alternative. Its like punting in the fourth quarter when down by 4 points and hoping you get the ball back. Or saving your closer when you have a tie on the road. Harper might not be a great outfielder but he can hit, and he will crush the ball in Citizens Bank Park. He will also bring fans out to the ballpark and even if he does lose defensive value down the road he can eventually replace Hoskins at 1B (who is only five months younger than Harper and unlikely to sign a free agent contract with the Phillies) or play at DH which is almost guaranteed to come into the NL after the next CBA.
