2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

Jon Heyman (JonHeyman)

[Patchmk88]

I must admit I’m a little nervous now. I still think we’ll get Harper but I definitely wanted to be the one who signed the first of these two. Now Klentak has to play a real good game of poker with Boras. If Boras knows we’ll go too high, we’ll have to pay a lot more than expected. If Klentak think Boras is bluffing about other teams involvement and he isn’t, we’ll miss out on Harper. Didn’t have to play such a hard core game when both were out there.

[julio]

The Phils are now in a grave situation, they just lost the best fit and will probably end up overpaying to get the guy who is only marginally a fit. Disaster.

Strong words.

If the fact that Machado signed (if/when he actually does) with the Padres is a "disaster" that places the Phillies in a "grave situation"... what words would we use if the Phillies charter bringing the club north to start the season were to explode in midair?

In other words, let's try to keep some degree of perspective here, eh?

Notwithstanding, McCutcheon, Segura, Realmuto and Robertson...there will be a fan backlash if they swing and miss on both Machado and Harper.

However, the low-information fans, many of whom buy tickets, will consider it a disaster if the Phillies get neither and will check out for the entire season no matter how well they do.

Probably true. Probably true regardless of how the club actually performs. Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of...in this case, fans. Particularly fans who think they're entitled.

I do worry though that if they don't sign Harper and McCutcheon starts slowly, the fans will boo him mercilessly.

Well, they'll have to buy tickets if they want to show up to boo McCutchen!

[EastFallowfield]

I thought the low info fans already were against Machado, so that lack of signing is a plus!

[Lawman]

Jim Salisbury (JSalisburyNBCS)

[Patchmk88]

And Klentak lays down his first bet in his game with Boras.

[Lawman]

John Stolnis (JohnStolnis)

[zambonir]

Yeah, you simply can't play this free agent game if you're only willing to offer what your algorithm says they're worth. But presumably if they do "value" Harper more it's not just because of that. He pays for himself (to some extent) in a way Manny would not have. Low information fans are what pay the bills!

[Lawman]

Agreed.

And, quite frankly, I think I agree with this as well:

Kevin Cooney (KevinCooney)

[julio]

Agreed.

And, quite frankly, I think I agree with this as well:

Kevin Cooney (KevinCooney)

At the end of the day, the reputations of the people in the front office will stand, or fall, on how the club performs on the field. Fans who pass judgement on the basis of off-season activity, or press statements, etc.... well...

Sportswriters ought to be informed enough to understand this. If they're not - if they're just all about feeding red meat to casual fans - I just don't care.

Low information fans are what pay the bills!

This only becomes an issue when the low-information fans start cancelling their cable agreements - which basically is not going to happen, because the same cable bundles that provide CSN Sportsnet also provide the other escapist entertainment that Americans want. Until we get large-scale cable-cutting, and a large percentage of fans (low-information or not) purchasing access to Phillies broadcasts a la carte (which cannot even be done currently, for in-market fans), then a disappointing off-season isn't going to impact the cable revenue stream very much - and that revenue stream is more important than ticket sales on the margin.

[Dirk41]

Could Harper go somewhere (CHC, NYM) for big money on a short term deal?

Can't help but think he doesn't want to be here

[zambonir]

All reports has been he doesn't want a short-term deal. Never say never of course.

But we are literally 10 minutes into the actual market for Bryce Harper, who was always going to be the last man standing and has always wanted to be the highest-paid free agent in baseball history, so I still don't understand the "he doesn't want to be here" worry. You think Manny really wants to be in San Diego?

The real question is, are the Phillies truly interested in signing one of the the two players who wanted to be the highest-paid free agent in baseball history? Because Manny currently is that, and it was always known they both wanted it.

[Dirk41]

San Diego is maybe the most amazing city in America. He could do worse

I understand what you are saying, though.

If Klentak's valuation of Harper is higher than Machado, I dunno if you can trust that valuation.

[andyb]

It is interesting that they say Machado went above their value number. Arguably Harper is a little less valuable position-wise so you could assume he should not be worth $300 million to the Phillies either. Assume the Phillies are just saying things to spin not getting Machado at the moment, but if they whiff on both and end up with an 86-win team then one could argue Klentak was not aggressive enough in this market.

I also wonder if getting McCutchen was always a move that was a hedge against not getting Harper. Getting both forces another move (trading Herrera or Williams) to really maximize the value of getting Harper. Makes me wish maybe that they had not signed McCutchen if they actually do get Harper. Williams/Altherr/Quinn would have been fine as the extra OF and they could have gotten a 3B or LH starter upgrade instead of McCutchen.

[zambonir]

San Diego wouldn't crack my Top 10 but I hear you. Beautiful. Good tacos. But, not a great sports town, far from Florida, lower ratings for your Pacific time games, fewer endorsement opportunities, high income taxes.

And they won 14 fewer games than the Phillies last year.

I definitely think "valuation" also includes Harper's likely higher impact on ticket sales and NBCSN Philly ratings and ad rates. Winning goes produce that too, but not up front.

Neither of the off-season moves really make sense in the contest of the FA chase. Segura affected Manny (even if it is ultimately smarter to play him at 3B) and McCutchen affected Harper.

Talking about valuation isn't very good spin, nobody wants to hear that. But what are they going to say, they weren't interested and prefer Harper? No leverage there.

[Dirk41]

Arguably Harper is a little less valuable position-wise so you could assume he should not be worth $300 million to the Phillies either

That's the thing, Machado is a top 10 , at third he's maybe a top 5, player in the game. Harper may not even be Top 15.

[zambonir]

That's definitely the confusing part. We've been Waiting for Manny since they day they hired MacPhail and Klentak. But now we've also heard how much everyone (including Kapler and Middleton) loved Harper once it turned out he was available and they met him. And there's also a relationship with Boras.

If they truly only pay "value" this is not happening. Especially if there's still a bidding war to come. But it doesn't really seem like there's a second team that's prepared to pay that kind of money, so for now Klentak's statements are just part of the spin and negotiation.

[andyb]

That's the thing, Machado is a top 10 , at third he's maybe a top 5, player in the game. Harper may not even be Top 15.

If his defensive numbers bounce back to neutral he is top 10. He does have more offensive upside than Machado. Only been able to put everything together in a handful of years, but there is also the high OBP base which should age pretty well offensively.

With both of these players it is more than whether they are top 10. It is also that they are still young and more of a contract will be in their peak years than any other free agent.

I would have preferred Machado too, but Harper is not that bad and is still a pretty good candidate to be good for a decade. Might be a 1B or DH in the back half of the deal, but that is OK.

[flyers19rw]

There was a rumor floating around last night that up to half of it was deferred money. We'll see if that is true. If so, that detracts from the value of the deal.

[andyb]

There was a rumor floating around last night that up to half of it was deferred money. We'll see if that is true. If so, that detracts from the value of the deal.

Of course if that is true then why did the Phillies get outbid on a player that just accepted a $25-$27 AAV (the AAV is lower with deferred money).

Maybe Machado wants the deferred money so he can avoid taxes back in Florida after his career. Does he still count as a California employee for that money? Or is it taxed where he lives when he gets it?