2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[el-pietro]

Hopefully this speeds up Harpers decision. I'd prefer if they had managed to get Machado but I'll still be very happy if we can get Harper. I don't want to contemplate the possibility that they miss out on both.

[bkeich]

That really is a huge surprise, the Padres are not a spending team. You have to wonder how they could possibly make this work with their very low income.

The Phils are now in a grave situation, they just lost the best fit and will probably end up overpaying to get the guy who is only marginally a fit. Disaster.

[el-pietro]

Harper is a better fit offensively to be fair. Left handed power hitter who gets on base at a very high rate. Defense and how he ages are questions.

[andyb]

Lineup-wise definitely a better fit as a left-hander and the high OBP is something Klentak prizes.

On the defensive side one could hope we are looking at Bohn for 3B in a few years and Franco is an acceptable bridge. Plus Harper to 1B in 5 years would make defense less important. And a DH might be a reality too.

Now they just need to get Harper and then probably flip an OF for prospects.

[bkeich]

Harper is a better fit offensively to be fair. Left handed power hitter who gets on base at a very high rate. Defense and how he ages are questions.

I agree, but the problem is he plays a less important defensive position, he is getting worse at it and we have spent multiple very high picks in the last few years at that position. Agree, you need 3 OF, but still, if we were to sign Harper we have a log jam, and two very high picks that we would hope would hit the majors in a couple years and we would have signed 2 veteran OFs (agreed McCutcheon may be gone by the time they arrive).

I guess my opinion is also tainted by my dislike of Harper, who has always struck me as an incredibly arrogant, obnoxious player and person.

[Philsmania]

I wouldn't put it past the Nats to top us at the last minute.

[el-pietro]

Thats a real concern.

If we do sign him, lets hope the DH comes in over the next few years so we have somewhere to put him in 6 or 7 years (or sooner if his defense continues to deteriorate).

Apparently the Machado deal includes a 5 year opt out.

[bkeich]

I wouldn't put it past the Nats to top us at the last minute.

This creates a "couldnt see it coming a month ago" situation where all the big money teams still have their money. This is going to be interesting, but probably annoying.

Harper probably just made between $25M-$50M because he was the one that held out the longest. Now if it falls to only 1 team bidding now then it is actually a whole different situation....

[zambonir]

Well, one assumes the Phillies could have outbid the Padres for Machado if they wanted to. And/or already know they are close with Harper.

I really don't think the Nats are in this but what's the number where you just let them have it? They can't really afford him and have never actually offered him a serious deal apparently (in that the $300 million was heavily deferred).

[Squire]

My quick takes:
1. Machado signing first is pretty awful for us.
2. Notwithstanding, McCutcheon, Segura, Realmuto and Robertson...there will be a fan backlash if they swing and miss on both Machado and Harper.
3. I can't believe that Machado Signs With The Padres didn't merit its own thread but whatever
4. The longer Harper remains unsigned the worse it will be for us.
5. Since at best we are getting 1, I figure we will overpay for Keuchel (probably) or Kimbrel (maybe) with or without Harper.

[zambonir]

Well, everyone always knew Machado would sign first, so if getting Machado or getting the guy who signed first was a priority for the Phillies, they'd have him.

And everyone always said Harper's goal was to sign the biggest contract of all-time, so if he's been the Phillies' preference for the past month, they have to know that's the price. That said I don't think the White Sox or Giants present serious competition, and the Nats are merely an X factor. (Edit: the White Sox have already publicly said they weren't willing to go as high as the Padres did for Manny.)

Rosenthal's report yesterday was that both the Padres and Phillies front office preferred Manny, but ownership didn't necessarily agree. FWIW.

[Squire]

I did not know that Manny would sign first.

[David_Criss]

The sky is not falling. There is a reason why the Dodgers didn't pursue him heavily and let him go to a division rival. Is it perhaps they didn't like what they saw when they got him?

The Padres have MM and Hosmer locked up to major long term deals when everybody else is going to shorter deals and they have no pitching. Odd

Rendon and Arendon are FAs next year

Franco and Kingery just breathed a big sigh of relief - Franco did lead the team in batting average last year fwiw

Segura, Realmuto, Robertson and McCutcheon are significant upgrades that make the Phillies way better right now then they were 365-days ago with a lot more financial flexibility for now and future moves. They are better with or without Harper

I'm guessing there is a lot of pressure on Harper to take the best deal (Phillies) even though he may want to play in NY or LA

Who knows how this will play out on the Harper front, but I for one will not call this a failed off season if Harper isn't signed to the Phillies. This team is going to be fun to watch this year regardless of who is in right field.

[Philsmania]

The sky is not falling. There is a reason why the Dodgers didn't pursue him heavily and let him go to a division rival. Is it perhaps they didn't like what they saw when they got him?

The Padres have MM and Hosmer locked up to major long term deals when everybody else is going to shorter deals and they have no pitching. Odd

Rendon and Arendon are FAs next year

Franco and Kingery just breathed a big sigh of relief - Franco did lead the team in batting average last year fwiw

Segura, Realmuto, Robertson and McCutcheon are significant upgrades that make the Phillies way better right now then they were 365-days ago with a lot more financial flexibility for now and future moves. They are better with or without Harper

I'm guessing there is a lot of pressure on Harper to take the best deal (Phillies) even though he may want to play in NY or LA

Who knows how this will play out on the Harper front, but I for one will not call this a failed off season if Harper isn't signed to the Phillies. This team is going to be fun to watch this year regardless of who is in right field.

Agreed with regard to the quality of the Phillies' offseason. However, the low-information fans, many of whom buy tickets, will consider it a disaster if the Phillies get neither and will check out for the entire season no matter how well they do.

I do worry though that if they don't sign Harper and McCutcheon starts slowly, the fans will boo him mercilessly.

What surprised me was pretty much no radio static between Machado and the Phillies since he visited in December.

Another thing that's surprising me is that after all this time, it is the teams who are blinking and meeting the free agents' demands and not the free agents doing the blinking and taking much less than they had hoped. To me, it all begs the question, "why did it end up taking so long?"

And yes, I do wonder of Middleton wants Harper more than McPhail/Klentak wanted Machado.

[andyb]

here is a reason why the Dodgers didn't pursue him heavily and let him go to a division rival. Is it perhaps they didn't like what they saw when they got him?

Or perhaps they had an injured SS (Seager) who is now healthy? Along with JT at 3B they just did not need him as much as other teams.

[EastFallowfield]

The Dodgers said last year they were getting Machado for the rest of last season, not to convince him to sign there. It was other folks who thought the Phils should have traded for him to prevent him and LA from falling in love with each other so he'd give LA a discount or something.

[Philsmania]

The Dodgers said last year they were getting Machado for the rest of last season, not to convince him to sign there. It was other folks who thought the Phils should have traded for him to prevent him and LA from falling in love with each other so he'd give LA a discount or something.

Oh, we'll probably hear somebody saying that we should have traded Sanchez for him.

[zambonir]

I did not know that Manny would sign first.

Well, it was certainly the conventional wisdom. Maybe it felt otherwise these past few weeks because there was so much focus on Harper. But it was a staring contest that most figured Boras would win, because he usually does (and the fact that he sometimes doesn't hasn't changed his methods).

Also Harper is probably more prepared to wait it out and wait for his number (and has been prepped accordingly by Boras) or he would have signed with the Nats. If necessary they'll even start his spring training like they did for Martinez last year. I don't think Lozano has those kind of resoures and also, having already been traded, Manny is probably more eager to get on with his life.

And yes, I do wonder of Middleton wants Harper more than McPhail/Klentak wanted Machado.

More specifically I wonder if he prefers Harper for baseball reasons or marketing reasons, though I think the two players are close enough that it probably doesn't matter. The more important question is if he would overrule his GM. Probably not. Even if Klentak and MacPhail preferred Machado I doubt it was such a strong preference that they only wanted him and not Harper at all. They've been in on Harper pretty hard obviously.

[flyers19rw]

How much of this money is deferred?

[andyb]

Unclear at this point. And also how much is back loaded.