2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[bigegypt0417]

Andy Martino (martinonyc)

I don't know if he's right or wrong, but I don't have a good feeling about Harper to Philly.

If The two biggest free agents end up in SD and SF it would be a shock.

Harper must really have no interest in the Phillies to go to a team so far from winning.

[Austinfan]

I tried to warn you that Philly simply isn't a prime destination.
All Philly teams have had to deal with this, which is why FA isn't the best route for them.

Since when did the Phillies become a bottom half farm system? Maybe not top ten right now, but let's see where they end up this year, they have a good track record of developing pitchers, and maybe the changes will finally help developing hitters (which has been the Achilles heel for a decade).

If Harper doesn't sign here, it's not the end of the world.

They made significant changes this offseason, Franco and Herrera seem committed, and Kingery can't be that bad, can he? There is talent in this lineup, and a pitching staff with top 5-10 potential (deepest group I can ever remember, going down to AAA).

Harper or Machado aren't saviors, let's see if the Padres are a .500 team, and Harper won't save the Giants.

[jimbomill]

Harper or Machado aren't saviors, let's see if the Padres are a .500 team, and Harper won't save the Giants

Harper didn't help enough a good Nats team, either.

[EDmuch]

AF, give it a rest. Machado went to the Padres because they offered him the most money. Klentak is very clear that he did not match the Pods offer. Machado was not a "I hate Philly move". It was a "I love all those Benjamins" kind of move.

[Squire]

Since those guys over at Baseball America but they ranked us 23rd last week. I was being generous with bottom half.

[Patchmk88]

My god guys - every other post on here is “Harper must really not want to be in Philly because....”

For one the guy hasn’t signed yet, so let’s wait and see.

For two, other than money, most guys want to play for a winner. We have built a team that with another piece (Harper) or two will be a winner. However, the perception because of the last 7-8 year we’ve had is that our franchise has a losing culture. That is on the current management and the management before this. I’m tired of hearing all this hogwash on we can’t blame the front office if the players don’t want to come here. Yes we absolutely can blame them, they are the ones that have driven this negative perception. They have not drafted well, have not done enough in the international amateur market, have not developed talent in our farm, and waited to long to rebuild from our last winning “culture” (that’s definitely on the old guy). We now have spent the offseason showing that we want to win by trading and signing older talent. Right move or not, you now have to do everything necessary to continue on that path - otherwise we’ll be back to rebuilding for 5 years. If we couldn’t beat the Padres offer on Machado and actually wanted him and fail to beat the fields’ offer on Harper, than this offseason has been a failure in the sense that not only did we not do enough to put a playoff contender together but we setback our timeline even more.

For three, as has been mentioned by various people, Harper will take the best deal money wise. It doesn’t matter if he loves the Cubs or would like to be eating seafood on San Francisco Bay every night, he will take the Phillies offer if it is the best out there. That is how free agency in baseball works. It’s not like basketball where a player will take a cut to build a monster team. I guarantee you that 95% of free agents that are getting the top dollar amounts in the past 10 years have taken the best money offer.

[VoteForKalas]

I tried to warn you that Philly simply isn't a prime destination.
All Philly teams have had to deal with this, which is why FA isn't the best route for them.

IMO this has less to do with Philadelphia and more with the Phillies directly.

The Phillies have been an outlier due to their organizational prioritize money over winning and backward talent evaluation approaches until CBP was opened and then again, more recently, when Giles/Monty finally gave up control and Middleton took over.

Many players who play here stay and live here. Philadelphia has a rich sports reputation; it is important to our public culture and our fan support is widely heralded as strong regardless of sport.

Since 2000, the Eagles have been a highly respected organization attractive for FA.

The Flyers have been that for even longer, going back to the 1980's

The 76ers have a consistent winning tradition, but, since 2001 due to their own mistakes, ownership issues and the loony structure of the NBA, have struggled until recently to regain that legacy and again attract talent. That is changing now majorly.

[gmwannabe]

Again, i don't agree with Squire's disaster or failure comment, (i agree with probably 99% of his posts he puts on here) but i do agree with his frustrated comment. after the trades, the exposure of Johnny's drafts are evident. not looking too good with what he has picked early. and i think this june, if it/he doesn't provide much, will be his swan song. but that is for another thread that will pick up steam pretty soon. The team, as it is now, has improved and i think can/will contend. still hopeful of harper, but i wouldn't say it will be the end all, if they don't get him. looking forward to seeing a positive jump from pivetta, Eflin and a better healthier year for jake. i think they will be in the thick of things.
gm

[BostonRoss]

I would say that it's probably a failure if the Phillies sign Harper, and a bigger one if they don't. I would have beaten the Padres offer on Machado,probably to the level that Harper is going to get (though of course we don't know what that is yet). If the Phillies end up paying Harper a higher number than Machado got, they are worse off than if they offered the same higher amount to Machado.

We can't know for certain whether that would have gotten Machado to Philly, but it seems they dropped out of the bidding. Now there is the risk of leaving money on the table, or spending it on lesser assets, and that would be a failure in my view.

[bigegypt0417]

FOX Sports Radio on Twitter

[schillingfan]

Here's my two cents. We always knew Boras wanted Harper to sign after Manny. I'm going to be positive and assume Phillies offered big money to Manny, but wanted Harper more. Now that Manny has signed Boras is playing hardball as he knows Middleton believes he must sign Harper. So he's upped his demand. It will be more than Manny's deal and it will happen, it's a question who breaks first in this chicken game.

[bigegypt0417]

David Murphy on Twitter

[andyb]

Since we traded Sanchez it is pretty clear to me we are a bottom half farm system. We still have some depth, but the guys from 20-30 now are guys we would have ranked in the 30-40 range a couple of years ago. At the top we seem to be getting 3 prospects on most top 100 lists. While that is about average (3.3 per club), we also have nobody in the top 50 on most lists so the top of our system is below average.

The Realmuto trade is a trade that screams "win now" since we are getting only 2 years of Realmuto. They really needed Machado or Harper because our offense now is still average at best. Machado and Harper are not only 10-year solutions, they are stars who will be 26 and 27 years old the next 2 years so getting them is not only about the future, it is about the present.

It will be a big failure if we don't get Harper since we have been playing for this offseason for several years and the other 2 future stars (Arenado and Trout) look unlikely to end up in Philly at this point.

[andyb]

That is kind of a silly tweet since Machado getting to $300 million kind of guarantees that there is near zero possibility of something that starts with a 2. Harper was never doing to go for the high AAV short deal when he could get 10 years with opt outs.

[David_Criss]

The NL east is going to be a fun division to watch this year. The Nationals couldn't win last year with Harper along with Rendon, Soto and Turner in the lineup and Scherzer and Strasburg on the mound. They have since added Corbin and questionable upgrades at 1B and 2B.
The Braves remain intact oh and they added Blanco
The Mets have the pitching but no hitting.

I think the Phillies compete in the NL east right now. The Nats offered Harper 300/10 and an obvious shot at winning, too. If he signs with the Giants then it simply is a preference to stay on the west coast.

[Lawman]

My only question is this. If the terms of the deal between SF and Philly were equal, would Harper come to Philadelphia?

[julio]

My only question is this. If the terms of the deal between SF and Philly were equal, would Harper come to Philadelphia?

If you had no historical or family ties to Philadelphia - if you grew up in Nevada - and you were offered essentially the same position, at the same salary, by equivalent firms in San Francisco and in Philadelphia... which you you choose?

This ain't rocket science.

[EastFallowfield]

If you had no historical ties to either city but were a lefthanded power hitter, would you choose to try to hit homers in SF or CBP?

[julio]

If you had no historical ties to either city but were a lefthanded power hitter, would you choose to try to hit homers in SF or CBP?

Interesting question. Does Harper have any preferences at all about things other than home runs? Other than baseball? For instance, climate (Harper grew up in Nevada; he might not be fond of summers in a hot, humid swamp - and may be sick of DC for that reason). Cost of living and taxes (higher in the Bay area)? Does he have a spouse or significant other whose preferences might matter a little bit?

These things sometimes outweigh "even" money (the quotes are for those whose value systems place money above virtually everything else); we've posited the same money here - and given that, all kinds of other things come into play.

[Lawman]

Exactly. Because I'm worried the Phils offer 10/$325 and SF comes in at 10/$310 or 8/$295 and he takes their offer.