2018-19 Phillies Off-Season Discussion (2019 version)

[zambonir]

Guess I'm bad at math.

It would certainly be interesting if the Phillies got Harper instead of Machado... then Arenado would be in the trade deadline mix for sure.

I'm still not entirely convinced Manny won't come to Philly as a SS. If that is what it takes to close the deal I trade Hernandez in a heartbeat.

[Taudawg]

I am always skeptical of the true value of players from Colorado. Nolan Arenado home/road splits are extreme. .347 BA home v. .248 road in 2018. He still has power on the road and the glove should play anywhere, but I still prefer Manny. If we don't sign Manny, signing Moustakas for two years could be the way to go. Two years should be enough bridge while we hope and wait for Bohm to develop.

[Florida_Sunshine]

The point being that there will always be other opportunity and that we should not act as if the opportunities this year are the end of our plan. Actually, we do not know what the owners plan is. It could very well be vastly different from what we want. With that said, I would like us to acquire Manny as plan A and Harper as plan B. It's taking a long time to sort out.

More to your point, if 2 big money teams take Manny and Harper off the market this year, it likely eliminates them from being potential suitor's next year.

[andyb]

Meanwhile on the Harper front:

Bruce Levine (MLBBruceLevine)

Some debate out there on whether the White Sox have gone 10 years. We know the Nats did. This tweet certainly implies that somebody else did a 10-year offer with a higher AAV than the Nats offer. We would be among the most likely candidates to make such an offer.

[bigegypt0417]

Meanwhile on the Harper front:

Bruce Levine (MLBBruceLevine)

Some debate out there on whether the White Sox have gone 10 years. We know the Nats did. This tweet certainly implies that somebody else did a 10-year offer with a higher AAV than the Nats offer. We would be among the most likely candidates to make such an offer.

I am thinking the Phillies will have to go 10 years to get Harper. It seems to me that Harper will need some convincing since he isn't even willing to come to philly for a meeting.

[Philsmania]

Meanwhile on the Harper front:

Bruce Levine (MLBBruceLevine)

Some debate out there on whether the White Sox have gone 10 years. We know the Nats did. This tweet certainly implies that somebody else did a 10-year offer with a higher AAV than the Nats offer. We would be among the most likely candidates to make such an offer.

I am thinking the Phillies will have to go 10 years to get Harper. It seems to me that Harper will need some convincing since he isn't even willing to come to philly for a meeting.

He has been here many times as a visiting player, many more times than Corbin and Machado ever were. Three times a season versus once per year for Corbin and maybe two or three times total careerwise for Machado. But still, it doesn't look like he's going on any tour.

[David_Criss]

For Harper it is LA, Nats or he Phils. Good to know he is talking to and meeting with the Phillies before making his decision. Then again this could be Boras using the Phillies to get more money from LA. Who knows?

[tom81]

I would think that Philly owes him a visit in Vegas since they didn’t visit him earlier at the winter meetings where other teams supposedly visited him.

[teabag259]

Has Harper stated a time frame?

[bigegypt0417]

For Harper it is LA, Nats or he Phils. Good to know he is talking to and meeting with the Phillies before making his decision. Then again this could be Boras using the Phillies to get more money from LA. Who knows?

There is a part of me that thinks Boras is causing as much swirl as he possibly can to make the Phillies or Mats pay way over market for him...the dodgers are the perfect team to help him to that end. At the end of the day I actually think Harper wants to stay in Washington.

[saycheese]

Not sure it would be smart for Boras to use the Phillies to inflate the offers from others. He has other clients like Britton, Keuchel etc that the Phillies are interested in. They could walk away from them if they are not happy with the way he is handling Harper. Them again the Phillies could "be in on Britton and KeucheL" to try and get Boras to sway Harper to come here if he is looking at three big deals with the Phillies. Very much a game of cat and mouse.

I do find it as a positive sign that Harper has agreed to meet with the Phillies. That must mean they have a very competitive if not the best offer on the table and they are now seeing if there is a fit or at least one can hope

[zambonir]

Boras has all the leverage and everybody knows how he operates. If they want Britton or Keuchel they want Britton or Keuchel, they aren't going to walk away and trade for Mike Minor or sign Gio Gonzalez just because Boras is also trying to run a perfectly normal bidding war to get the biggest deal in baseball history for his superstar. This isn't the kid's table.

Things are not really moving that slowly, Cain did not sign until late January and J.D. Martinez did not sign until after spring training started (ditto Arrieta). The Phillies knew this is how the market was going to play out. And so did we but we don't have anything else to talk about.

[donaldorc]

Speaking of which...met a guy from Philadelphia yesterday on a trip to the Rose Parade and he SAW Ashburn and Roberts play and reminisced with me about the '64 Phillies and Gene Mauch. Said he used to watch Allen, Callison and Bunning on TV and went to Connie Mack Stadium many times.

I saw all these guys play at Connie Mack and as a kid sneaked up the ramp into the Phillies dougout. Saw some massive legs donning pinstripes but hoofed it out of there before anyone saw me.

[Austinfan]

Here's why I'm not worried about them signing a SP:

Phillies Offseason is a Bet on Pivetta and Velasquez

Eflin, Pivetta and Velasquez have a good shot of pitching much better next year behind an improved defense.
All three were better than average SPs by advanced metrics, and with a year under their belt, and top notch FBs, they're more likely to progress than regress. Add them to Nola and Arrieta and this should be one of the better pitching staffs in baseball. Throw in Eickhoff, De Los Santos, Anderson, Irvin, Suarez, Romero and Medina as minor league depth and they have some injury protection. And if the defense allows SPs to go an extra 1/3 to 2/3 of a inning per start, that's 50-100 less IP for the bullpen next year.

So yeah, adding Harper or Machado would help, but if they add 2 WAR with a second tier OF instead of 5 WAR with Harper (v 0 WAR with Altherr/Williams) they're still going to be improved over last season. Machado at 3B would be a bigger lift, since his defense would be far superior to Franco, Machado at SS probably a gross overpay.

[andyb]

The problem with adding 2 WAR with a second tier free agent is that it uses up a position compared to signing a 5 WAR free agent. And 2 WAR free agents like McCutchen cost $15-$20 million per year, so this solution has some risk also.

We have good young pitching in the majors. It is not really extraordinary depth because most teams go 6-8 deep with guys like Eickhoff and De Los Santos and Anderson. Lots of AAAA names does not really make us much better. We are liable to have some regression from our starting rotation as well, likely from Nola where a 5 WAR season would still be very good but also represent a drop from 10 WAR last year.

There is just no quick and easy substitute for not landing Machado or Harper. I don't disagree that signing another starter is a top priority. Mixing in a good LHP would make us better and one of our back 3 (Eflin, VV, Pivetta) is likely to regress or get hurt because that is what happens to young pitchers.

[BostonRoss]

I can't imagine that Harper will get less than or sign before Machado, given the hype he has generated over the years and who is agent is. But he's not as good and is a corner outfielder. I'd go hard after Machado now; if we can't sign him, Harper could still be considered.

[flyers19rw]

Looks like good news on Eickhoff:

After carpal tunnel surgery, how does a healthy Jerad...

I realize that the article is behind a pay wall but its full of good news for the Phillies. He has had carpal tunnel surgery which removed the pressure on the main nerve in his right wrist which was causing the tingling feeling in his index, middle and wring fingers in his right hand. He looks to be good to go. If he can get back to where he was in '16, he's a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. IIRC, after being acquired in the Hamels deal he put up better numbers than Cole for a year and a half until he developed the hand issue. It sounds as though he's good to go and only needs to build up his arm strength again which he can do since the tingling is gone.

[Florida_Sunshine]

If we can get him back, that would be a huge boost. He is the forgotten man.....

[Squire]

When Eickhoff has been healthy, he's been really good. That really is fantastic news.

[LoneStarPhan]

A fully healthy Eickhoff could turn out to be the #2 starter this season. It certainly is great to have him back in the mix.